TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[AWDtsla]

View attachment 345359 Kardony having busy day. CNBC showing this as breaking news

I just need to look at Inside EV numbers to see the EV sales of all

Tesla must be doing really well right now.

 

[mongo]

If your disagreement is a big enough problem, you should speak up and explain why. The disagree button doesn't contribute to conversation; it just contributes to anger. Almost nobody gets a disagree and thinks, "Oh, thanks!" It's almost always, "Well, what the heck is his/her problem???"

It's like getting flipped off in traffic. Maybe you were driving well, or hey, maybe you actually were driving poorly. But getting flipped off never makes the situation better.

Yah, that what I attempt to say:

Or else "like" the first contra-post, which doesn't directly help others who read the wrong post..

perhaps I should have said "like, or write".

I do think "thanks" when I get disagrees due to being wrong. If it is within the editing period, I write the thanks out in the edit. I'll even report my own post to get it corrected.

Scenario: Someone posts that the MR pack is software limited.
Option 1:
One or multiple people create posts replying that it is not. Those posts may or may not be anywhere near the original post.
Reader may or may not see the follow up post in a relevant time frame. Is the truthfulness judged by the number of redundant replies?

Option 2:
Multiple people click disagree, read further and see that it has been addresses long form and don't bother to post.
Next readers see the post wad voted way down and think "huh, maybe it's wrong"

I agree that a driveby disagree for the sake of disagreeing or an attempt at moderation is not helpful.

 

[dondy]

I don't recall the german engineers commenting on the chassis. Both Munro and the germans agree on the great electronics and motors. If you watch the video you wil see that his criticisms are well within his area of expertise. That doesn't make him right on all 200+ points, but he is an expert.

And many of the first M3 were of surprisingly crappy construction for a low volume car. Tesla deserved criticism for letting those cars get to customers. But I don't think that today anyone believes that current production has assembly/fit problems.

they haven't. These were autos sold to employees. It is a normal practice for the 0 batch in pretty much all car companies.

 

[Krugerrand]

Does this happen to other people? I haven't even posted all day and somebody decided to systematically disagree my whole life. Not the first time this has happened to me on this board. Weird behavior imo.

Not gonna lie, SP movement today has me shaking my head, but materially I know the co is intact. I don't want to be the guy that sells off most of my position on the earnings pop to try to time the market, so I'm not going to. I've decided to hold my calls staunchly up until the weeks they expire, just as an act of stubbornness if nothing else.

Yep, she’s trolling you just like she and her buddy are trolling me. You could post the closing SP and she’ll disagree. Not the first time she’s done it and won’t be the last. You’re on her radar now, buddy.

Good luck with your position.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

What I missed in the discussions about lemur is that Elon on Twitter gave the most concrete date yet for their ability to produce the modified SR battery pack.

It’s a long range battery with fewer cells. Non-cell portion of the pack is disproportionately high, but we can get it done now instead of ~February

Or did I just overlook any posts on this?

 

[dondy]

What we know for sure is that Tesla is taking orders now for 2018 delivery in North America. So this tells us the North America demand at the $50K plus price point. This is why they are easing the price point down to stimulate NA demand.

They have invested in NA distribution and they want to keep the volume up here while adding more markets.

No they don't. They produce 5 autos instead of 4. They produce 2 autos with one motor instead of 1 with two. Very simple basic arithmetic.
They will end Q4 with 10k/w, while having some grace time to ramp up cell and motors production in the meantime.
Again I remind the obvious observation: they sold more than they produced in Q3.
If you didn't get it i repeat: they sold more than they produced. Demand is not a problem, supply is. On all stages, starting with cell production and ending with deliveries.

 

[The Blue Owl]

We shouldn't even have a "disagree" button. It's a "let's spread negative feelings without having to justify ourselves" button. Promotes "driveby annoyance".

I don't disagree. But sometimes I disagree. Then I click "Disagree".

 

[Etna]

What I missed in the discussions about lemur is that Elon on Twitter gave the most concrete date yet for their ability to produce the modified SR battery pack.

It’s a long range battery with fewer cells. Non-cell portion of the pack is disproportionately high, but we can get it done now instead of ~February

Or did I just overlook any posts on this?

The way I read this: since the cells are the current production constraint and they wanted to free themselves from that constraint, they could start production of a new pack with fewer cell in February (lead time for new pack) or use the existing long range pack with fewer cells with some non-cell portion right now.

So that would not be related to the SR product timeline.

 

[keydiver]

I see lots of people poo pooing the price difference between MR and LR RWD, $4k is not insignificant to many car buyers, especially in the 35-40k range.

Yes, but if you add the $3750 extra tax credit that you will get by ordering an MR and getting it before the end of the year, vs waiting until next year for an SR, that makes the MR only $1250 more than an SR with PUP. Or, you could look at it as $6250 more for both PuP and bigger battery. Personally, it doesn't work for me, as the Model 3 is a replacement for my wife's Leaf, so I need neither more range nor PuP.

 

[Smokey4141]

I am pretty sure, that if I ask the question "is it just me", that everyone will certainly pile on and says "YES!",, but

Is it just me that doesn't think that this latest announcement about the "31K$ Mid Range Model 3" is a good thing.?

As I look at it, we weren't expecting ANY lower cost car for many months, because the demand and delivery of the HIGHER priced cars was strong enough to fill ALL that Tesla could produce. And, why wouldn't you just sell those cars to at least DOMESTIC buyers, when the tax credit is the highest for at least the next couple months? It's same vehicle deliveries - hopefully, MAX production and it's going to be higher revenue and margin overall.

Now, we get the announcement that one can order NOW and GET that new CHEAPER car with the FULL tax credit (and the funky/fuzzy math they use to indicate the price is only 31K ((IN CA mind you and IF you factor in five years or gas savings - I've ALWAYS hated how they present pricing that way))..

Add to that that it is IMHO MOST likely that this is the same battery pack, not just the same size and shape but with the same cells. They have done this before its fine, but the input costs are the SAME. They just turn off access to some capacity. Like they are turning off access to some performance as well. And yet, it's COSTS them the same so the margin on these vehicles will be compressed a bit. Small bit, but every bit counts.

So, again - most likely JUST ME but I see this as a DEMAND problem for now. At least seasonally, if not overall. If they already have to somehow lower market pricing to move vehicles at the production rate they have risen to or the supply they have produced, well then we have a much bigger problem. Not one that can't be fixed, but in the near term - it would be a problem.

Let the flames begin.

I agree with you 100%... This is the most logical explanation to me as well, regarding all that we've seen in the last 24 hours, so, thank you for posting the note..

 

[Curt Renz]

No one noticed that ridiculous buy order at the literal last second? Price jumped from $258 to $260

I noticed immediately after buying TSLA shares around $258 at 18 seconds before the close. That was almost undoubtedly a hedge fund or market maker seeking to shut out owners of $260 puts as they were expiring on a monthly options expiration day. I had anticipated that possibility and was prepared to pull the trigger when the share price suddenly began to nudge upward following a half hour of stability.

 

[SpaceCash]

A little food for thought for those who actually clutch their pearls over the way Elon handles himself
CEO berates analysts on conference call: 'You are a disaster...they will have to commit suicide'

 

[omarsultan]

Yes, but if you add the $3750 extra tax credit that you will get by ordering an MR and getting it before the end of the year, vs waiting until next year for an SR, that makes the MR only $1250 more than an SR with PUP. Or, you could look at it as $6250 more for both PuP and bigger battery. Personally, it doesn't work for me, as the Model 3 is a replacement for my wife's Leaf, so I need neither more range nor PuP.

That it true if you are paying cash or have the finances to support floating the cash until you do your taxes. I believe when you start getting into this price range buying decisions start to be driven more by what kind of monthly payment can you afford so purchase price not net price is more important.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

If your disagreement is a big enough problem, you should speak up and explain why. The disagree button doesn't contribute to conversation; it just contributes to anger. Almost nobody gets a disagree and thinks, "Oh, thanks!" It's almost always, "Well, what the heck is his/her problem???"

It's like getting flipped off in traffic. Maybe you were driving well, or hey, maybe you actually were driving poorly. But getting flipped off never makes the situation better.

To play devil’s advocate here a bit, I actually was informed of a mistake via a disagree yesterday. I made a mistake in thinking a previous post was a mistake(that original post was a correction, so this was a correction to a correction to a correction; correctionception) and someone marked it as disagree. My outcome to that was “Oh, you’re right, I was right before and wrong here”.

 

[oneday]

No they don't. They produce 5 autos instead of 4. They produce 2 autos with one motor instead of 1 with two. Very simple basic arithmetic.
They will end Q4 with 10k/w, while having some grace time to ramp up cell and motors production in the meantime.
Again I remind the obvious observation: they sold more than they produced in Q3.
If you didn't get it i repeat: they sold more than they produced. Demand is not a problem, supply is. On all stages, starting with cell production and ending with deliveries.

This is unbridled optimism. I honestly think there is no way they’ll be producing 10k/w this quarter. Just absolutely no way. Reign it in there buddy.

 

[kelly]

What I missed in the discussions about lemur is that Elon on Twitter gave the most concrete date yet for their ability to produce the modified SR battery pack.

It’s a long range battery with fewer cells. Non-cell portion of the pack is disproportionately high, but we can get it done now instead of ~February

Or did I just overlook any posts on this?

Along those lines, I've been wondering if it is possible that the battery line Elon talked about at the Q2 Earnings Call could account for the 260 mile mid range battery. As I recall the battery was going to have a new case. It seems too early for it, but he did say:
From 8/6/2018 earnings call:

Elon Musk -- Chairman, Product Architect, and CEO

Just having that very rapid iteration between design and production is incredibly helpful and we understand for example, what are the rate limiters, what makes it hard to produce battery modules. We came up with a new design that achieves the same outcome, that's actually lighter, better, cheaper and will be introducing that around the end of this year, probably reach volume production on that in Q1 or something. That will make the car lighter, better, and cheaper and achieve a higher range. That line is under construction, will be active in about six months.

Warning: Wild speculation follows:
What if they found out that the 50 kWh SR battery made on this new line had enough increased range that simply adding some additional cells to get it to 260 miles was doable now (and through the end of the year)?

I've been painting this afternoon so I reserve the right to disavow this speculation later, if necessary.

 

[Cobos]

A little food for thought for those who actually clutch their pearls over the way Elon handles himself
CEO berates analysts on conference call: 'You are a disaster...they will have to commit suicide'

I see the point of being civil to your fellow man. Though the same way I agree with EM on the conference call where he refused to open stupid questions, it seems this CEO has the same point.
My main point is why should you continue to answer questions (as a CEO) from bankers that seem to have serious issues with reading comprehension. Or the GS analyst that has had a sell rating every single time on Tesla, I can replace him with a script I can make in 20 minutes. Why are you supposed to tiptoe around analysts that seem to need autopilot to help them buttoning their shirts? I thought Wall Street and big banks very supposed to be a meritocracy?

 

[Carl Raymond]

Thank you. This is key. The shorts don't give a sh*t about the ecological ramifications at play.

Yes. Just to be clear why...

The latest IPCC report gives us till 2050 to quit fossil fuels (and other emissions), to hold the planet to just 1.5 degrees C of warming (which is wreckless and dangerous, but better than 2 or 4 degrees).

Governments have failed miserably to respond to the challenge. The only chance of change rapid enough for survival is disruption, the kind that Tesla bring.

 

[dqd88]

This is unbridled optimism. I honestly think there is no way they’ll be producing 10k/w this quarter. Just absolutely no way. Reign it in there buddy.

How do you know? When do you think they'll get to 10/wk?

 

[oneday]

How do you know? When do you think they'll get to 10/wk?

Read my post, I didn’t say I know anything. Next year.