TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

Elon is playing this well. Fortnite is the most popular game right now, it has 78.3 million players. 63% of its players are 18-24, 22.5% are 25-34. This is free advertisement for him and his brands. Perfect target age group to sell his hip and futuristic products to.

Although Elon is a gamer himself so I don't think he's responding with the sole purpose of selling cars. But he trends well with the younger audience, they love him and think he's cool. Unlike the older suits.

He got 617k likes so far for that tweet! Is that a record for Elon?

Edit: 619k while I was typing

 

[MXWing]

So Elon does have another twitter account Elon Musk on Twitter

Fuuuuuuuu

How many times does "SEC" and "Pedo" show up for keyword density?

Do I want to ask questions I don't want to know the answer to?

 

[dondy]

I believe different sized packs do sometimes have different voltages, but they're mostly either ~400V fully charged for larger packs or ~350V fully charged for smaller packs.

Modern BMS can handle rather big drops in pack voltage and stabilize it for inverters. Of course it goes other way as well.
One of the serious advantages of Tesla modules is big number of cells in the module. It allows graceful degradation for Tesla's batteries because loss of the one cell doesn't cause chain reaction and module's loss, as it is the case for typical for car industry 4 pouch batteries packed together with no electrical protection in between.

P.S. I never heard about necessity of "aging" for proper LiOn batteries.
You build a cell , you charge it, you seal El gap, you test internal impedance, repeat with the next cell.

 

[Gavyne]

He got 617k likes so far for that tweet! Is that a record for Elon?

Edit: 619k while I was typing

You mean 622k

That's Fortnite for you, Elon knows what he's doing. He's the cool CEO you want as the face of your company.

Edit: and 4 mins later, 624k

 

[Artful Dodger]

My guess is guidance of 65,000 to 70,000 Model 3 production, then if all goes well they hit the high end of their target. Anything above that would be a nice upside surprise for me. Although it is probably a bit of a stretch, I have a feeling that Elon is going to try 100k total vehicle deliveries for Q4.

Heil og sæl, Heimdallr

Yes, I am definately attempting to locate the high end of the possible Model 3 Q4 production range. Here is my refined estimate:

Electrek reports Tesla has already produced 12,200 Model 3s in the first 18 days of Oct, including 4,800 in the past 7 days. Maintain that rate for October. Then L3MR production begins in November. I estimate a 50/50 use of cells for LR/MR, and a 4:5 ratio of AWD/RWD Model 3s.

Note that my previous estimate assumed a 3:4 ratio of AWD/RWD but I no longer believe that results in a 260 mile range pack for MR, so I use the 4:5 ratio below.

In December, I assume the 3 new Panasonic bty cell lines are running at capacity, and that the rest of the Model 3 production system can ramp up to continue production at the limit of cell production.

So then, adding up each month of production in Q4 (assuming 4 holidays ea. Nov+Dec), I get:

12,200 + (4,800 * 2) +
(4800*5/4) * 3.7 +
(1.3*4800*5/4) * 3.85 =
21,800 + 22,200 + 30,000 =
74,000

Note that if S/X Q4 Production is 26K, then Tesla produces 100K vehicles in Q4.

Ambitious production target? Certainly. But if things go right, it could happen.

I don't think its likely that Model 3 Q4 Production exceeds this estimate, though there are two identified variables:

1. the 3 new Panasonic cell lines could come online early. I weigh this possible though unlikely, according to my 2nd-hand source *outside* GF1 (Rating: Skuttlebutt). Similarly, if Panasonic is late, Q4 production goes down.
2. the new Panasonic lines may themselves be upgraded, rather than just clones of the existing lines. Some commenters are speculating about 50% greater throughput per new line, but I have zero evidence of that, so I discount it. If true, Dec 2018 Production would increase by 3600 Model 3s, but let's leave it out of the estimate above pending evidence.

Cheers!

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I don't vaguely think he is trying to be cool. he is just a gamer, making jokes on twitter about games like anybody else. The fact that this makes him seem 10,000x more down-to-earth than any other auto CEO in history is just... a nice side effect

Anyway.... back to market action... I've held my short-term margin positions way longer than intended. Next week better see the start of some positive climb towards Q3...

 

[Oldman]

... I've held my short-term margin positions way longer than intended. Next week better see the start of some positive climb towards Q3...

I wouldn‘t hold a margin position in Tesla stock around ER. Tesla shares makes too crazy jumps up or down, esp. @ cc. You could as well go to Las Vegas and put 1,000 $ on red or black on a roulette table.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I believe different sized packs do sometimes have different voltages, but they're mostly either ~400V fully charged for larger packs or ~350V fully charged for smaller packs.

Not for Tesla packs. They are all 96S packs.

 

[Artful Dodger]

again, unfortunately it doesn’t matter. the cause and effect we are trained to recognize isn’t true at all. the stock needs to be suppressed in order to make money for the market manipulators. so it will be until it isn’t.
it sucks, makes me angry, but it doesn’t matter.

 

[avoigt]

I don't think we can make that link. We do know that the Tesla chassis/body has been heavily engineered compared to what Munro sees as normal (Munro stated it in his report and Tesla has not denied it), and we know that the 3 has excellent crash results (from NHTSA). But we don't know how much of a correlation there is between these two points. Could Tesla still receive the same safety ratings with a more simple and lighter design? I have no idea and am not an engineer. Other posts have said that Tesla fired the engineer responsible for the 3 chassis which also gives this statement some pause for thought.

Before becoming a globetrotting banker, I grew up on a farm in Australia and used to fabricate (to use the word loosely, it was more hillbilly engineering) many items that required fairly heavy load capacity (stock crates, feeders that would hold a few tonnes of grain, ramps, etc) and intuitively I would say that the more metal you put into something the stronger it gets. But I am sure someone who knew what they were doing could achieve the same outcome with far less material.

It would not be surprising if traditional automakers have better expertise in efficient chassis/body construction as that is one of the only areas they have designed in house (along with ICE drivetrains).

If there is anyone on this board with expertise in this area it would be great to hear your opinion.

Quick Edit: If the 3 Chassis/Body is not yet optimally designed and Tesla are already making a positive margin then this is quite a positive outcome as we know that they continue to optimise their vehicles on an ongoing basis. Real margins on the 3 may be even better than they initially forecast if there is room to simplify the current design.

The German tear down came to the results that

• the 3 chassis has only 10% of the over-all weight which is in line with the light construction of the S which they call impressive
• That does bring the costs down and the construction is very smart as its a design to produce where robots can easily handle the parts

That alone is fully against to what Munro found and said. I said it before and say it again. The findings from Munro do not fit to what the German engineers found.

I do not know who is right but there is one information we all know for sure:

The 3 has the highest safety ratings every measured and the efficiency ratings are just impressive and hard to beat.

Look at this two facts what Munro called bad obviously has led to a fantastic combination between safety, efficiency which includes weight and costs.

Don't know why anybody ever talks about Munro. All points he tried to make has been proven wrong.

With regards to expertise of ICE automakers in EVs. Show me one who brought that combination of safety, efficiency and costs together and I call myself wrong.

If they could they would but they don't know how!

Tesla Model 3 für 40.000 Euro: Der Beginn der Massentauglichkeit?

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

Elon's talking about adding the ability to use your phone as a controller over bluetooth on the games. How long until the first competitor does something like this? Can you imagine the meetings. "But we're a car company! Nobody knows how to do that!"

 

[avoigt]

I don’t know how they get to 10k/w Model 3’s without putting up a couple of more tents and another paint shop, say by next summer.

No offense but thats linear thinking in an exponential production structure.

Lets all remember that Elon said many times he will get the productivity improvement realized with changes in efficiency in production over time. That is not finished yet.

Looking at the tent we certainly all agree not all planned worked out and he acknowledge that they did over automate and had to go back at certain levels where robots just not were well suited. In fact I believe the main purpose of the tent was to keep the promise he made to avoid strong bashing from the market but that does not mean the existing facilities are not capable to go there.

And he also confirmed that the production will still be highly automated despite the tent and manual support.

After the still short period of automation improvements they worked on and some bottle necks they widened there is much more to come.

To assume that the current production rate achieved is what is possible and in order to continue the ramp either more lines needs to implemented or other GF would mean we do not believe what he said is what he will do.

Its fair to assume that but looking at production process improvements I expect much more to come.

In short I question that they are not able to bring it up to 10 k/w mid of next year with the existing production lines.

 

[avoigt]

1. 17h17 hours ago
   Maye Musk Retweeted Ross Gerber
   
   
   
   
   
   
   @GerberKawasaki Staying on top of @Tesla news
   
   
   
   #CleanEnergyWillWin #Pravduh
   
   
   Ross Gerber‏Verified account @GerberKawasaki
   Maybe I read this wrong. But Jonas at MS just put out a note that Tesla will do over $700 mil in cash flow Q4. That’s huge. The tide has turned folks. $tsla
   
   
   With Maybe Musk now actively supporting Elon on Twitter there are two options possible, either its Elon writing at least partly with her account or what she writes is coordinated with him. I would rule out that she is commenting without his knowledge and support.
   
   Looking at where she agrees to for instance at more financial oriented information from MS about CF and looking what Made Musk field of expertise is I'd say this is rather Elon holding the pen from time to time.

 

[cheshire cat]

The German tear down came to the results that

• the 3 chassis has only 10% of the over-all weight which is in line with the light construction of the S which they call impressive
• That does bring the costs down and the construction is very smart as its a design to produce where robots can easily handle the parts

That alone is fully against to what Munro found and said. I said it before and say it again. The findings from Munro do not fit to what the German engineers found.

I do not know who is right but there is one information we all know for sure:

The 3 has the highest safety ratings every measured and the efficiency ratings are just impressive and hard to beat.

Look at this two facts what Munro called bad obviously has led to a fantastic combination between safety, efficiency which includes weight and costs.

Don't know why anybody ever talks about Munro. All points he tried to make has been proven wrong.

With regards to expertise of ICE automakers in EVs. Show me one who brought that combination of safety, efficiency and costs together and I call myself wrong.

If they could they would but they don't know how!

Tesla Model 3 für 40.000 Euro: Der Beginn der Massentauglichkeit?

S'spect we haven't heard the last of the Munro/AN other saga, if not made public it will eventually leak out, I' m sure the result will be entertaining if not enlightening. "Ooo-Errr missus" (the late great Frankey Howerd)

 

[cheshire cat]

Three cheers for Mum

 

[hobbes]

Video from China GigaFactory site by Vincent (via reddit):

First leaks of GF1 ground breaking were only 4 years ago (!): Guest Post: Top-Secret Groundworks Outside Reno, NV Marks First Tesla Gigafactory Site

Looks like first test production line already in place (joke by Model3VINs on twitter) :

 

[avoigt]

Video from China GigaFactory site by Vincent (via reddit):

beat me by a punch...

It looks like soil works for the GF3 in China already started.

A huge area indeed although we don't know exactly the dimensions of that property.

1. 
   9h9 hours ago
   BreakingNews: First view of Tesla China Gigafactory physical location video in Shanghai. Info from local people in the area(from the video), construction already started about a week ago. $TSLA #TeslaChina
   
   13 replies28 retweets139 likes
   

vincent‏ @vincent13031925
More info about the Tesla China Gigafactory from the video: This land was originally used to grow watermelon, surrounded by fences two months ago. One and a half months ago, the land was pushed to prepare for the capital construction.

vincent on Twitter

 

[JRP3]

Not for Tesla packs. They are all 96S packs.

As I remember the 60kwh packs were lower voltage and I think the 75 as well.

 

[Electroman]

Now there will be a surge in drone sales in China.

 

[SO16]

--> does not belong to this thread: Frankly, if the president says it's ok to kill journalists b/c he has financial ties with Saudis that benefit him personally, we'll not be on a high moral ground ourselves.

I was a proponent of Tesla going private and purchased several hundred shares at 379 because of it. Just think if it would have been approved by shareholders with funding secured from the Saudis just prior to the journalist situation. Wow....that could have looked really bad for Tesla. I’ll take the current low stock price over that situation.