TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dandurston]

I’m with you on Tripp’s belief in hyperbole, but the tent is either coming down, or not

I don't know the situation well, but a quick skim of Tripp's note had me thinking he was referring to the deliveries tent, not the GA4 tent.

 

[dc_h]

Not as long as they keep selling at production capacity.

Improved design could reduce production costs and increase capacity at minimal cost. Refreshing S/X batteries and refreshing design going into new year with disappating tax credits would be perfect timing. Increasing common components between SX could also increase productivity and possibly get GA into a single line.
The key to any upgrade is getting Panasonic to up their game. If they are testing 7000 a week by end of November, the implication is the new Panasonic cell lines are running.

 

[dc_h]

I don't know the situation well, but a quick skim of Tripp's note had me thinking he was referring to the deliveries tent, not the GA4 tent.

That would be hysterical if true.

 

[tivoboy]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Supercharger V3, which starts rolling out early next year, will also charge much faster

Define much faster?

 

[phnix]

Replies to the tweet suggest everyone is equally confused. How could the pick-up come to market ahead of the Semi?

Elon Musk on Twitter

I think though pick-up has higher resource priority than Semi, Semi might come to marker sooner than pick-up (and even Y), because of the difference of initial volumes.

 

[EVNow]

Elon Musk on Twitter

I think though pick-up has higher resource priority than Semi, Semi might come to marker sooner than pick-up (and even Y), because of the difference of initial volumes.

To me it just means Tesla is spending more on the Pick-Up than the Semi.

 

[Krugerrand]

Improved design could reduce production costs and increase capacity at minimal cost. Refreshing S/X batteries and refreshing design going into new year with disappating tax credits would be perfect timing. Increasing common components between SX could also increase productivity and possibly get GA into a single line.
The key to any upgrade is getting Panasonic to up their game. If they are testing 7000 a week by end of November, the implication is the new Panasonic cell lines are running.

Go back reread ER transcript. Musk and JB CLEARLY stated S and X are NOT getting the new 2170s. They CLEARLY explained it would require a major redesign and a crap ton of capital, and just simply didn’t make sense. Production would be held to 100,00kish/yr combined - based on the contract for current 18650s.

Interior refresh perhaps more in line with M3 - based on those leaked pics. Anything else is wishful thinking that’s been going on for more than a year now. Any day now....

 

[Bet TSLA]

Anything else is wishful thinking that’s been going on for more than a year now.

Good logic. But it sure looks bad to have your flagship product, which you have always claimed will be the best you have to offer, charge much more slowly than your low end product. Very bad indeed.

So what do they do?

 

[Krugerrand]

Good logic. But it sure looks bad to have your flagship product, which you have always claimed will be the best you have to offer, charge much more slowly than your low end product. Very bad indeed.

So what do they do?

I’ve argued before, it’s not their flagship vehicle. It may have started that way, it may have been their intention...things change fast at Tesla. People need to let go of this flagship idea. There are bigger fish to fry now that EV adoption didn’t go as planned and thought.

 

[MartinAustin]

Elon Musk on Twitter

I think though pick-up has higher resource priority than Semi, Semi might come to marker sooner than pick-up (and even Y), because of the difference of initial volumes.

I was really surprised and delighted to see this "mini-announcement burst." Elon clearly can't hold back his excitement (and this was evident in the Recode interview when he said Tesla's product roadmap was probably the world's most exciting right now).

Most of all was seeing Pickup prioritised higher than Semi+Roadster... two products that are already revealed and have full pages on the Tesla website.

I now think the request for Pickup features a couple of months back was to see if they had missed anything from their mostly-finished design. I think we're going to see it revealed in 1H '19.

Further... I think Elon really liked how the Semi+Roadster reveal played out, because the Semi was predictable, but the Roadster gave the media the extra pizazz that they needed for even more coverage.

Doing this the same way for the Pickup would make sense - especially if it's only for effect, with actual production further out.

The Model Y will garner a lot of interest at the reveal, but basically we already know what it is going to be - a 2-row CUV adapted from Model 3... will visually look like a blend of X and 3. (They could even go all algebra on our asses and use X+3=Y in their marketing event promo.)

However, if they shock the world with a surprise BEV Pickup reveal at the same event, American truck companies would shyt a brick, *and* truckbuying activity at dealerships would fall off in the same way that BMW/Infiniti/Acura etc. dealerships saw crickets after the Model 3 reveal. Slowing down sales of ICE pickups is a part of the Tesla Mission. Even if the actual production of the Pickup might be a ways off.

It would be fun to show off the Model Y tow hitch at the reveal event. It pulls a big trailer onto the stage, on which is a huge shape wrapped in a cover. Elon says "I wonder what's under that cover, shall we take a look?" as the crowd screams wildly. OK I'm dreaming...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Many seem to forget that Semi and Model Y are very different in terms of resources required to establish product delivery.
Tesla doesn't need to set up huge automated lines geared to producing 5K vehicles per week. Putting the brakes on Semi would not significantly accelerate Model Y ramping to hundreds of thousands. Likewise, keeping Semi on track to deliver hundreds to large clients who have already put in deposits, is not going to reduce the time needed to ramp up and mass produce Y.

"Batteries Not Included".

EDIT: Dont' forget that commercial rollout of the Semi will require that the MegaCharger rollout be well underway to provide minimum useful trucking routes. More resources, more time to market.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I’ve argued before, it’s not their flagship vehicle. It may have started that way, it may have been their intention...things change fast at Tesla. People need to let go of this flagship idea. There are bigger fish to fry now that EV adoption didn’t go as planned and thought.

There's also the possibility that whatever tech might make the 2170s faster to charge can be applied to new 18650s. It seems unlikely that the property of the cell which limits its charge rate is its dimensions when we are talking about two cylindrical cells not radically different in size.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I was really surprised and delighted to see this "mini-announcement burst." Elon clearly can't hold back his excitement (and this was evident in the Recode interview when he said Tesla's product roadmap was probably the world's most exciting right now).

Most of all was seeing Pickup prioritised higher than Semi+Roadster... two products that are already revealed and have full pages on the Tesla website.

I now think the request for Pickup features a couple of months back was to see if they had missed anything from their mostly-finished design. I think we're going to see it revealed in 1H '19.

Further... I think Elon really liked how the Semi+Roadster reveal played out, because the Semi was predictable, but the Roadster gave the media the extra pizazz that they needed for even more coverage.

Doing this the same way for the Pickup would make sense - especially if it's only for effect, with actual production further out.

The Model Y will garner a lot of interest at the reveal, but basically we already know what it is going to be - a 2-row CUV adapted from Model 3... will visually look like a blend of X and 3. (They could even go all algebra on our asses and use X+3=Y in their marketing event promo.)

However, if they shock the world with a surprise BEV Pickup reveal at the same event, American truck companies would shyt a brick, *and* truckbuying activity at dealerships would fall off in the same way that BMW/Infiniti/Acura etc. dealerships saw crickets after the Model 3 reveal. Slowing down sales of ICE pickups is a part of the Tesla Mission. Even if the actual production of the Pickup might be a ways off.

It would be fun to show off the Model Y tow hitch at the reveal event. It pulls a big trailer onto the stage, on which is a huge shape wrapped in a cover. Elon says "I wonder what's under that cover, shall we take a look?" as the crowd screams wildly. OK I'm dreaming...

Now you've done it. We get to the end of an amazing model Y reveal and go "What? No pickup?"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not as long as they keep selling at production capacity.

Yup. Not as long as they are battery cell constrained.

Switching S/X from 18650 cells to 2670 cells is the equivalent of reducing total cell production by about 8 GWh per year.

Tesla needs the extra cells. 18650s are here to stay for the forseeable future.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Go back reread ER transcript. Musk and JB CLEARLY stated S and X are NOT getting the new 2170s. They CLEARLY explained it would require a major redesign and a crap ton of capital, and just simply didn’t make sense. Production would be held to 100,00kish/yr combined - based on the contract for current 18650s.

Interior refresh perhaps more in line with M3 - based on those leaked pics. Anything else is wishful thinking that’s been going on for more than a year now. Any day now....

For now, sure - but never say never. At some point it will make sense to update S & X and among other things switch to the new cell form factor. But I expect that Y will be at least partially ramped up past break even before then (as they'd need 3 + Y to be printing money so that they can retool S/X as well as keep everything else such as pickup, Semi, etc on pace, while maintaining positive cashflow). Obviously depends also on timing of growing cell supply to match, which is another reason they'll want 3 and Y both above break even and making heaps of money before retooling S/X for the new cells.

 

[EVNow]

Carlos Gone

Palace coup ?

Ghosn behind bars: a rather messy coup

 

[Dave EV]

There's also the possibility that whatever tech might make the 2170s faster to charge can be applied to new 18650s. It seems unlikely that the property of the cell which limits its charge rate is its dimensions when we are talking about two cylindrical cells not radically different in size.

Exactly. The primary constraint on how fast you can charge a cell is the cell's internal resistance to charging. High internal resistance means the cells heat up more and then you end up having to upgrade the thermal management to remove heat faster.

There were changes made to the Model 3 pack which makes cooling a bit more efficient, but if anything, larger cells are harder to cool than smaller cells.

Drop in a new chemistry with ultra-low internal resistance into the same 18650 packaging and then you can charge faster. Or you can charge slower, but more efficiently which is always good, too. This chemistry will also be be able to discharge faster, meaning more power at the wheels for those ludicrous launches.

Now it's possible that Tesla might redesign the internals of the Model S/X pack using lessons they've learned from the Model 3 to drop the cost of manufacturing - but I suspect they'll keep the 18650s for reasons mentioned earlier.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They could even go all algebra on our asses and use X+3=Y in their marketing event promo

Yeah, then the Shorties would be all like "X=Y-3"

 

[dc_h]

Go back reread ER transcript. Musk and JB CLEARLY stated S and X are NOT getting the new 2170s. They CLEARLY explained it would require a major redesign and a crap ton of capital, and just simply didn’t make sense. Production would be held to 100,00kish/yr combined - based on the contract for current 18650s.

Interior refresh perhaps more in line with M3 - based on those leaked pics. Anything else is wishful thinking that’s been going on for more than a year now. Any day now....

Winston Churchill said “I’d rather be right then consistent”. Elon has taken the idea to heart and a whole ‘nother Level!

 

[Electroman]

And the Model 3 is believed to be able to charge quicker, maybe to up to 150kW

"believed to be" ? But whatever it is, none of Tesla cars today can take 150 KW charging for more than a few minutes. Today it is barely sustaining 110 KW for more than say between 10 to 20% SoC. I suspect the elapsed time difference between a full charge on the current 110 to newer expected 150 KW will be no more than a minute or two.

For the 200 Kwh Roadster and Semi - it will make a huge difference.