TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Lordstown Ohio was capable at one point recently of 5,000+ a week production, Oshawa 7,000+ a week , and Detroit-Hamtramck about 4,000 a week. Lordstown or Oshawa could probably host a MY line.

Fremont is getting up there numbers wise, I'd actually bet now, because of the higher ASP and vertical integration, that the Tesla Fremont plant is the highest producing plant in North America in terms of dollar value added, perhaps by a considerable margin as well.

If Tesla comes to Oshawa, Ontario, Canada, I will quit my PM role in the FI industry and camp overnight to get employment with Tesla in whatever capacity they need. Elon can pay me in TSLA shares. I'm sure i won't be alone.

 

[Krugerrand]

Have you surprised yourself?

Nothing and nobody surprises me, even myself.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Krugerrand said: ↑
"You believed that? "



Could the Y ramp be yet another bet the company near disaster? The possibility can't be ruled out. However there are many good reasons that Y ramp problems (of course there will be plenty) are very unlikely to threaten the company's solvency.

First, instead of operating cash from only S and X (and cash reserves) supporting the build out of manufacturing lines designed to triple annual production, the Y ramp's build cash will be supported by cash generated each quarter by S, X and 3 sales. Even if the Y ramp bled cash at the same rate as 3, that could be sustained for as long as needed.

Second, the Grohman acquisition integration with Tesla engineering is much, much further along now than it was in 2017.
The single biggest mistake in the 3 ramp was using an outside firm to build key portions of the battery pack lines. I don't imagine that lesson is going to be forgotten anytime soon. Tesla generally recognizes major mistakes and learns from them. Finding the next sweet spot between robotic tasks and ones people can still do better is another lesson. We can be certain they will again over reach on some automation, but they will have plans in place to correct more rapidly. Musk will set unrealistic targets as always, but the delays should be less and the financial risks from those delays will be less threatening.

Third, my understanding is that the Y is built on the 3 platform. A small fraction of the work required to get the 3 up will be required for the Y. As much as 90% is copy and paste.

 

[Krugerrand]

Meh. We're all armchair quarterbacks here airing our thoughts and comments to other armchair quarterbacks about what your favorite company's leaders woulda, coulda, shoulda done. Even though the home team wins in the end, we want to talk about what they could have done better in our own humble opinions. Maybe it's cathartic, maybe it's masochistic, who knows, but it is what it is and we keep coming back for more. Cheers.

I’m not but I recognize many are. Carry on.

 

[Krugerrand]

Prediction for the day.

CLOSE 345.01

Everybody knew you were going to be wrong. You’ve forgotten the rule about 6’s.

 

[MP3Mike]

Third, my understanding is that the Y is built on the 3 platform. A small fraction of the work required to get the 3 up will be required for the Y. As much as 90% is copy and paste.

You obviously don't know Tesla very well. There is no way they will re-use 90% of the Model 3. Heck I wouldn't expect the Model 3 made in 2 years to be 90% the same as the Model 3s that originally came off the production line.

Haven't they said that they are eliminating the 12v battery and going to a 48v bus for accessories? As well as redesigning the wiring harnesses to be machine installable. (Which they have recently patented.)

 

[Krugerrand]

Of topic: When I see a potential new avatar for old (not in years) friend, @Krugerrand I just have to post it. This one can be used for all those times you have to repeat yourself:View attachment 355676

That one is actually super applicable about 110% of the time.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

You obviously don't know Tesla very well. There is no way they will re-use 90% of the Model 3. Heck I wouldn't expect the Model 3 made in 2 years to be 90% the same as the Model 3s that originally came off the production line.

Haven't they said that they are eliminating the 12v battery and going to a 48v bus for accessories? As well as redesigning the wiring harnesses to be machine installable. (Which they have recently patented.)

I think they mean 90% of the Model 3 *at that time*, including those type of incremental updates.

 

[CaliBear1]

Sorry. Had to.

Thank you!!! Somebody had to educate the Visigoths amongst us!

 

[Carl Raymond]

You obviously don't know Tesla very well. There is no way they will re-use 90% of the Model 3. Heck I wouldn't expect the Model 3 made in 2 years to be 90% the same as the Model 3s that originally came off the production line.

Haven't they said that they are eliminating the 12v battery and going to a 48v bus for accessories? As well as redesigning the wiring harnesses to be machine installable. (Which they have recently patented.)

OK, so some adaptations. But I assume same battery packs, same motors, brakes, wheels, computer, cameras, base software, seats (with taller base), skateboard, charge port, door handles. Even if you stop there you're well over 50%. I think people assign too much 'difference' mentally when they see visual difference - when much of the work is not even visible. EV World (on youtube) did a strip down of the battery pack and it was apparent the enormous work that went into the Model 3 battery pack alone.

 

[Curt Renz]

Trump suggests US could slap 10% tariffs on iPhones and laptops imported from China after market down

He's inciting Tim Cook and many other American tycoons to unite and destroy him politically.

 

[ZachF]

Re; GMs plant closure news, I'm brought back to the numbers that suggest we have already hit peak ICE here in the US:

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
Overall U.S. Auto Industry Sales Figures – Monthly And Yearly | GCBC

This year it looks like the US is going to hit overall sales of aroung 16.8m/y and EV sales of around 345k

Total automotive US sales:
2011: 12,779k
2012: 14,492k
2013: 15,582k
2014: 16,531k
2015: 17,471k
2016: 17,539k
2017: 17,209k
2018*: 16,800k

EV sales:
2011: 17k
2012: 53k
2013: 98k
2014: 122k
2015: 116k
2016: 156k
2017: 200k
2018*: 345k

Now, lets subtract the two to get ICE sales:
2011: 12,761
2012: 14,439
2013: 15,484
2014: 16,409
2015: 17,355
2016: 17,380
2017: 17,009
2018*: 16,455

*est

I think EV sales could hit 500k next year, and ICE sales may drop below 16m. ICE manufacturers are already fighting over a shrinking pie.

@ZachShahan Have you done any articles on this? Peak ICE sales having already come and gone? ICE sector declining by 2-3% a year while the EV sector grows by 30-40%

 

[kbeckley]

If Tesla comes to Oshawa, Ontario, Canada, I will quit my PM role in the FI industry and camp overnight to get employment with Tesla in whatever capacity they need. Elon can pay me in TSLA shares. I'm sure i won't be alone.

I'll be second in line...

 

[sweter]

OK, so some adaptations. But I assume same battery packs, same motors, brakes, wheels, computer, cameras, base software, seats (with taller base), skateboard, charge port, door handles. Even if you stop there you're well over 50%. I think people assign too much 'difference' mentally when they see visual difference - when much of the work is not even visible. EV World (on youtube) did a strip down of the battery pack and it was apparent the enormous work that went into the Model 3 battery pack alone.

I dunno, Musk wouldn't be himself if he didn't want to disrupt things. Latest comment from him on the matter is from May this year on Q1 CC: Tesla’s upcoming Model Y will be ‘a manufacturing revolution’ in 2020, says Elon Musk . Same platform, but 95% wiring reduction (I vaguely remember something about 10 meters of wires total). That sounds like a HUGE change.

There's no way that Model Y will be copy + paste + scale up + modify chassis of Model 3.

 

[erha]

I got a bit worried this weekend as I need quite a bit of money in about three weeks time. With the macros looking shaky and Tesla heading down I was wondering if I were about to be forced out of Tesla at a low price. Luckily, we got a green day today and I used the opportunity to close all my margin (20%) and sell about 10% of my position.

I'm pretty optimistic for Tesla for the next couple of weeks and months. It will be a bit frustrating to see TSLA rise just after I sold tons of shares. However, it feels good to de-risk and not be worried about being forced out of Tesla if the market turns sour.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I think you should be able to get a TDAmeritrade account that lets you do everything you want.

Thanks. Just set it up. Now to transfer my IRA over and go all in on TSLA.

 

[tivoboy]

OI? Orange...?

Orange Idiot.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Latest SeekingTrash article headlines with "Tesla, and the upcoming winter". Ironic because these shorts are gonna have their asses frozen off.

 

[M3Rider]

I dunno, Musk wouldn't be himself if he didn't want to disrupt things. Latest comment from him on the matter is from May this year on Q1 CC: Tesla’s upcoming Model Y will be ‘a manufacturing revolution’ in 2020, says Elon Musk . Same platform, but 95% wiring reduction (I vaguely remember something about 10 meters of wires total). That sounds like a HUGE change.

There's no way that Model Y will be copy + paste + scale up + modify chassis of Model 3.

That article actually quotes a new platform
Tesla Model Y: Elon Musk says electric crossover coming in ‘late 2019 or 2020’ on new platform
And Falcon Wing doors(I hope not).
Somehow these details slipped my memory.

 

[UncaNed]

Thank you!!! Somebody had to educate the Visigoths amongst us!

Ni!