TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

Aaaaaarrrrgh. I sold only ten January 2020 puts. Wish I had sold a hundred.

Best not to get overexposed. You really, really have to watch your margin requirements when selling puts.

 

[anthonyj]

These past few drops were just bear traps. Massive buying pressure now.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Why are there cliffs on the coast of Maine? So much ice sitting on them for so long has been released and has a lasting upward influence on their relative position.

We should test ATH before 4Q earnings. I'm not sure why we haven't already. FUD doesn't stick anymore.

 

[Fact Checking]

LA Auto show, Audi, Daimler, Mazda and others are asked about Tesla and the influence on their business.

Hope King just back from LA Auto Show on Twitter

Overall very generous answers, some explicit praise, some admiration - absolutely no overt negativity towards or belittling of Tesla that I could see - we've come a long way!

 

[neroden]

All right -

Here's a post about union workers in the auto industry that actually is slightly on topic.....

Has anyone any evidence to suggest that an Oshawa, Lordstown, etc., plant ever could transform from a UAW stronghold to either a non-union or company union plant? NUMMI did it: the circumstances there were, I would argue, so special that it likely is sui generis: history suggests that UAW heads treated the California plant - and thus its workers - like so much offal and abandoned them in their hour of need, thereby making it that much easier for new owner Tesla to hire them back as non-union.

The Canadian auto workers union is not the UAW. It's Unifor. I really don't know a lot about it. They seem angry about the Oshawa plant closure, but possibly also powerless to stop it, given that GM is a US company.

It seems to me that the mid-continent plants, however, represent the heart and soul of the union and as such, the end game would be quite different.

 

[MikeQ]

Makes me so angry when I see this charts. FFS, take all the money spent on military and use it instead for education, health, social security, etc., then you wouldn't need the military any more.

Modern wars are fought over resources one country has that another country needs. Education, health and social security have little affect on this.

 

[Krugerrand]

google is your friend.
so far based on what we know ..
Tesla Pickup Truck has a ‘really futuristic-like cyberpunk Blade Runner’ design, says Elon Musk

I think Rivian looks better and more standard. Just hope Tesla doesn't go into "hubris" mode again. BTW, there is article out there that Franz visited the Rivian booth in LA too.

I love cyberpunk blade runner with the smooth lines and flowing shades and shadows. A box with wheels and horizontal squinty headlights - blech.

Makes senses Franz would scope out Rivian design. That’s his job.

 

[Tslynk67]

I noticed the Bloomberg tracker continues to drop every day. Their graph indicates production will be below 4000 a week within the next week and around 3500 by year end. Think they need to either tune it up or get rid of it.

Aye, but makes for a great SP pop every quarter end

 

[anthonyj]

50ma and 200ma frotting right now. Golden Cross secured. Bought more shares

 

[ZachF]

Friday party?

 

[neroden]

From 1999 to 2006, I setup several online communities, both personally and professionally as part of my business. Many of those communities had users that were children. They understood how forum software worked and that each thread is its own topic, and that a healthy community has many active topics with new topics being created regularly.

So, I see that children using forums in those years had more self control than many of the adults using this forum.

Let's be honest: children are going to spend more effort at self-control in an online forum than rich investors. I use my self-control in my investment work, dealing with medical problems, etc. I don't have a lot left for forum manners.

 

[neroden]

Well, I feel silly for not guessing this one. The shorts had a nice dip going and didn't want to chance a push down and bounce with a half hour to go, so they waiting for the final 10 minutes and achieved their dip into close.

The thing is, these trading patterns which we predict and joke about are clear examples of price manipulation. They are illegal and the SEC lacks the will to investigate and go after these people. Looks like the solution is to realize the SEC is not capable of ensuring the markets are a fair casino. Either the NASDAQ has to move forward with its proposed rules regarding short selling disclosures or we ought to start pestering our reps in Congress to amend the laws. The problem with such blatant short seller manipulations is that it destroys wealth and threatens otherwise viable companies. There's a good argument for seeking reforms.

NY Attorney General also has jurisdiction over market manipulation executed on NASDAQ, FWIW. If you're thinking about legal options.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Some wanting to buy in before Q4 report?

I've seen anecdotal reports about larger amounts Model 3 deliveries to customers.

The Q4 report is more than 2 months away. TSLA is moving steadily against the NASDAQ-100 since 09:52 EST.

What do the bigs know that we don't?

 

[erha]

Volume is pretty low today as well...

I think this buying pressure can be purily coincidentally. Or maybe one big fish decided to increase their holding today

 

[SpaceCash]

Volume is pretty low today as well...

I think this buying pressure can be purily coincidentally. Or maybe one big fish decided to increase their holding today

Low volume price appreciation is very bullish, given the factors at play in TSLA.
Notice how the tiniest bit of volume is kicking SP dramatically North:

This means nobody is really selling, and probably covering is involved too

 

[lascavarian]

Well, Prop 13 (tax law) is a big reason for the ridiculous housing costs in California by shrinking housing supply.

Rented in CA in 78 when Prop 13 passed. Tried to buy a house but prices laughable for what you get in SF bay area (on major fault line BTW). Left in '81 on transfer to East Coast and got twice the house(sq ft) on 3x the land without fault lines, mud slides, wild fires or droughts - Prop 13 was many things but really a revolt against real estate that had transformed into a scam and still is IMO.

More importantly is the much neglected notion of the value of "safety" in the price of the stock. This is new but Tesla has stated that they will be able to publish their accidents per mile driven data for the EAP enabled fleet. January ?? will be the second report as I understand it. They have a billion+ miles now. This data may/will impact the stock IMO. FSD is interesting but it is really the issue of safe miles driven that gets interesting in the minds of the consumer and how it is valued. If EAP as existing TODAY can deliver better than 2x the safety per mile then the question will be what is that worth in terms of consumer demand and how does that get priced into the stock - and TCO, insurance and used vehicle pricing etc? Will shares be accumulated prior to the data being published in January?

 

[Joe F]

Finally caught up. My view, and why I added to my position near the low after the open rather than waiting for my previous SP point: Another Tesla Killer non start with the position BMW is taking. Totally agree with the view others have here WRT BMW and their lack of vision. I just don't get it...

If the fabled Tesla Killers are killing themselves (a view I believe many here already hold) perhaps the rest of the investing world is starting to finally wake up to reality.

 

[AudubonB]

Regarding BMW's seemingly self-immolating decision to focus on diesel-electric hybrids, I think we've got very close to a winner here:

Electric EDSEL ?

; if we tweak that in recent BMW-style then -

Ta Da!

E-DieSEL

 

[neroden]

So I'm here right now looking for a reason that TSLA just popped to 346.26

There's your mistake.

I've explained for years that there is usually no "reason" for stock price moves on the short term. They're an emergent artifact of the interaction of thousands of automated trading algorithms, plus some actual investors and traders occasionally. Essentially statistical noise. Hope that answers your question!

And it's totally on topic. I could repeat it every couple of minues, as another naive trader asks "Why did TSLA move up/down/not at all in the last second/five minutes/day?" or "I think TSLA moved because Blah Blah", and it would be on topic. I think you should thank me for not posting this as frequently as I could based on how often people make the reasoning error of assuming cause-and-effect.

 

[ProtomanX]

Not sure how creditable this is, but this email from Elon said 7000 cars per week has been reached and it would cost them currently $38k to make the $35k Model 3

7000 Model 3 Per Week Confirmed? • r/teslainvestorsclub