TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZachF]

There's your mistake.

I've explained for years that there is usually no "reason" for stock price moves on the short term. They're an emergent artifact of the interaction of thousands of automated trading algorithms, plus some actual investors and traders occasionally. Essentially statistical noise. Hope that answers your question!

And it's totally on topic. I could repeat it every couple of minues, as another naive trader asks "Why did TSLA move up/down/not at all in the last second/five minutes/day?" or "I think TSLA moved because Blah Blah", and it would be on topic. I think you should thank me for not posting this as frequently as I could based on how often people make the reasoning error of assuming cause-and-effect.

A lot of price movement is like Brownian motion, sometimes it just does because it does.

 

[neroden]

Not sure how creditable this is, but this email from Elon said 7000 cars per week has been reached and it would cost them currently $38k to make the $35k Model 3

7000 Model 3 Per Week Confirmed? • r/teslainvestorsclub

Good news about the 1000/day, but sounds like it's a burst rate so far (so, more work to do...) and the news about the $38K production cost is bad. A big hunk of that cost should drop when the previously-announced redesigned, cheaper battery pack goes into production sometime in Q1, but apparently they need to cut more out.

That said, cost engineering is something Musk is actually very very good at. I bet they get this one sooner rather than later.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Shorts have to be covering, worried going into the weekend. If we get a truce with China/EU (or even just an agreement to put down the weapons and continue discussions into next year) we could easily move above resistance of $355 quickly. So, I think the weak shorts are being flushed out.

I do NOT think it's somehow people coming around to fundamentals or some insider knowledge.

I think the play here, from a tariff standpoint is that the 1/1/2019 date for the next "billions and billions of tariffs" will be shifted back to probably 4/1/2019 on the surface. That buys a lot of time during this period of the year for more discussions to be PLANNED at least.

And OI gets a stock market pop for the holidays, un-informed consumer confidence AND SPENDING could continue or go up, All for just a 90 day stay in direct combat.

It's probably a solid plan, so PLAN for that contingency.

This is my read as well. I think any substantive positive news with regard to tariffs will have a catalytic effect on TSLA.

 

[hobbes]

Not sure how creditable this is, but this email from Elon said 7000 cars per week has been reached and it would cost them currently $38k to make the $35k Model 3

7000 Model 3 Per Week Confirmed? • r/teslainvestorsclub

Nope, he congratulates those parts of production that did reach 1000/day (or 7000/wk), but not all did achieve this. Bottleneck is now body line. We don´t know how fast that is moving.

 

[Joe F]

Regarding BMW's seemingly self-immolating decision to focus on diesel-electric hybrids, I think we've got very close to a winner here:; if we tweak that in recent BMW-style then -

Ta Da!

E-DieSEL

Perhaps you meant:

E-DIEsel

EDIT: Please don't tell the mods I'm off topic, okay?

 

[hobbes]

Shorts have to be covering, worried going into the weekend.

Tweets by ihors support that:

Nov 28
$TSLA short interest is $9.55 bn, 27.78 mm shares shorted, 21.61% of float. Stock borrow is at G.C. levels. #Tesla shares shorted down 2.15 mm shares in November, -7.19%, and down 6.14 mm shares,-18.09%, since The Tweet. Shorts are down -$196mm in MTM losses for Nov, -$1.7bn YTD

(If you wondered, as I did: "G.C. - stands for General Collateral - the easiest to borrow stocks and bonds at the cheapest borrow rates - between 92% and 95% of all Russell 3000 stocks are GC.")

So to put it simple, shorting is cheap but noone wants to do it anyway .

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Good news about the 1000/day, but sounds like it's a burst rate so far (so, more work to do...) and the news about the $38K production cost is bad. A big hunk of that cost should drop when the previously-announced redesigned, cheaper battery pack goes into production sometime in Q1, but apparently they need to cut more out.

That said, cost engineering is something Musk is actually very very good at. I bet they get this one sooner rather than later.

December 31st 2018:
Tesla announces that they have finish the new SR battery and will offer the SR in the USA 2019Q1 at $37.5k.

June 30th 2019
Elon Musk announces that Tesla has made progress on cost reduction for the SR.
Tesla reduces the SR base price to $36.25k.

December 31st 2019
Elon Musk announces that Tesla has made progress on cost reduction for the SR.
Tesla reduces the SR base price to $35k.

</cynicism>

 

[lklundin]

Aaaaaarrrrgh. I sold only ten January 2020 puts. Wish I had sold a hundred.

In hindsight any non-trivial set of trades will be sub-optimal:

You either traded too much or too little.

So it makes no sense to just wish you had traded differently - because in hindsight there is an infinite number of trades you could have executed.

What can make sense, is to think back to the situation you were in, with the information you had at that time, and wonder if you could have acted differently on the available information - as a way to try and improve your trading strategy for the future.

 

[sunhelm]

The leaked email was just taken up by Electrek in the latest article.
Tesla achieves Model 3 production of 1,000/day, pushes to maintain it and reduce costs

Edit: Popped in my thinkorswim newsfeed as well. Looks like that provided a boost to SP.

 

[Todd Burch]

New high for the week. Nice.

 

[Todd Burch]

The leaked email was just taken up by Electrek in the latest article.
Tesla achieves Model 3 production of 1,000/day, pushes to maintain it and reduce costs

Edit: Popped in my thinkorswim newsfeed as well. Looks like that provided a boost to SP.

Looks like poor Fred has misinterpreted the email too. That email did NOT say they hit 1000 Model 3s per day, as others here have noted.

Edit: Nevertheless, I'm okay with TSLA rocketing up on this news .

 

[kyzhk]

$350!

Closed my 11/30 covered calls @ 345, 350 early morning for net debit $1/share. $8/share premium on average -> $7/share profit secured.

This reminds me again that tesla is a volatile stock and better close positions when they are deep in the green.

 

[Alphacrux]

Low volume price appreciation is very bullish, given the factors at play in TSLA.
Notice how the tiniest bit of volume is kicking SP dramatically North:

This means nobody is really selling, and probably covering is involved too

I’ll take it!

 

[lklundin]

A lot of price movement is like Brownian motion, sometimes it just does because it does.

I don't have realtime quotes in dollar, but for EU trading places TSLA is now up 10€.

Maybe it's not all due to Brownian motion...

 

[neroden]

It's TSLA. TSLA is extremely volatile. I don't even look for a reason unless the move is over 5%.

I've had calmer stocks which jumped up and down 2% overnight for no readily apparent reason. I've recently watched a 10% swing over the course of a few months in a staid bank stock which has had no meaningful news at all.

The stock market is full of noise.

 

[hobbes]

Looks like poor Fred has misinterpreted the email too. That email did NOT say they hit 1000 Model 3s per day, as others here have noted.

Edit: Nevertheless, I'm okay with TSLA rocketing up on this news .

I hope it is based on something else. Otherwise, we must expect it to drop back if the error becomes clear.

 

[avoigt]

The leaked email was just taken up by Electrek in the latest article.
Tesla achieves Model 3 production of 1,000/day, pushes to maintain it and reduce costs

Edit: Popped in my thinkorswim newsfeed as well. Looks like that provided a boost to SP.

Unfortunately the report and headline is not accurate. That sentences are simply wrong:

(...) Tesla has achieved its goal of producing 1,000 Model 3 vehicles in a day, which would result in 7,000 units per week, but it is now focusing on maintaining that production rate and reducing costs. (...) In a new email to employees today, Musk confirmed that Tesla achieved the production rate of 1,000 Model 3 in a day. (...)

Its overoptimism and not at all included in the mail that they achieved 1k. Parts did others did not. Also this is not sustainable and not burst. Unfortunately I made Fred aware before about mistakes in his reporting and he does not change his approach. Not good.

I am a mega Bull myself as most of you know but its bad for all of us if a journalists or blogger or how you would like to call them writes articles that are wrong either way. I always and since years call FUDsers out and we all should call people out who do not do accurate reporting.

I made them aware via Twitter but as usual they do not correct ( so far)

This is otherwise just food for shorts...

 

[Sancho]

I assume the ASP of M3 SR cars will be higher than $38k, so they are already able to generate a positive margin, and this will improve substantially from here.

Meanwhile, sustained 7,000/wk may not yet be secured, but it looks imminent.

There is only one leg left to the entire bear thesis, and that is future competition. That is a risk factor for every company, but in Tesla’s case, it seems particularly remote given the current track record of the competition, and the proven difficulty facing new entrants.

 

[Drax7]

Significant price changes with predictive power occur as significant new information
Becomes available

 

[MP3Mike]

I hope it is based on something else. Otherwise, we must expect it to drop back if the error becomes clear.

The parts he quotes match the email we saw, so he just has some reading comprehension issues. (Or he just likes to make news up.)