TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[hacer]

Every transaction involves an equal quantity of buying and selling. Put a different way, every purchase of stock requires an equal sale of stock by somebody else. And vice versa.

Volume = buying volume = selling volume.

It is true that every transaction has a buyer and seller, however there is also an initiator of the action. Back in the day when nearly all transactions went through a market maker they could always clearly identify a (public) buyer vs seller. These days it is trickier, but you can still see a transaction that takes place on the bid (or lower) as being initiated by a seller while a transaction that takes place on the ask (or higher) was initiated by a buyer. Without those initiators, the bid and ask would just fluctuate with no transactions. The entities providing bids and offers are essentially saying I will buy or sell if someone else will meet my price while the person who places the market order (or targets the bid or ask) wants to buy (or sell) now. These days there is a lot of pay for order flow where transactions take place between the bid and ask and that makes it more difficult to label the shares traded as having been "buy" or "sell" volume. Finally it has always been more common to measure "up" and "down" volume which is similar too, but not the same as "buyer/seller" initiated volume.

 

[Fact Checking]

First off, IANAL. That said, the key question seems to be solicitation. Journalists are generally protected when publishing illegally-acquired documents that are in the public interest.

Beyond solicitation I believe the question here is also that of bad faith and the question of whether Lopez and co-conspirators profited from publishing those materials, knowingly putting Tesla in a falsely negative light. Business Insider also doesn't have a spotless background, according to Wikipedia:

"Business Insider's CEO and Editor-In-Chief Henry Blodget is a Yale history graduate who previously worked on Wall Street until he was banned for life from the securities industry because of his violations of securities laws and subsequent civil trial, which ended with a $2 million fine plus a $2 million disgorgement and the permanent ban in 2003."​

For example it an was interesting coincidence that the timing of negative articles was often conveniently timed to $TSLA weekly option expires. We'd often get a negative headline a few hours before expiry, when expiring out-of-money options could be purchased very, very cheaply due to their very low residual time value, and temporary price action could offer significant leverage.

If such links are proven then I think the First Amendment will offer very little protection.

There's also other significant jurisdictions outside the U.S. that have a much dimmer view on journalists lying and have no First Amendment protections.

(IANAL and just speculating here, of course.)

 

[Fact Checking]

These days there is a lot of pay for order flow where transactions take place between the bid and ask and that makes it more difficult to label the shares traded as having been "buy" or "sell" volume. Finally it has always been more common to measure "up" and "down" volume which is similar too, but not the same as "buyer/seller" initiated volume.

There's also 'iceberg' order types that intentionally hide on the other side of the spread, waiting to be hit. So you can passively buy (or sell) while the 'active' initiator will appear to be sellers (or buyers). There's also 'dark' sources of liquidity that hide through many smaller orders and are flexible about the prices they are transacting at.

So determining intent from the primary order flow is increasingly more difficult these days - the best method is still volume vs. price histograms that are showing the tell-tale signs of significant buy or sell interest at key levels.

 

[NicoV]

Belgium ordering supposed to be open today. Let us know once and if happened.

Will do.
Nothing recieved yet, nor heard from any other Belgian reservation holder.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Outfits like 60 minites hasn't realized that the sentiment has shifted and are still trying to please the "bash tsla" crowd

How many ICE car ads go to air during an episode of 60 minutes? I suspect those sponsors are the ones any anti-Tesla bias aims to please, or at least not displease by using terms like "EV revolution" or "disruption".

 

[KarenRei]

Did anyone else know that Tripp had fled to Hungary?

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I wonder... any lawyers here... could a defendant moving to another country after a lawsuit was filed appear to be an attempt to evade justice, and cause problems for them in court?

 

[Fact Checking]

ED: "In 2015 Axel Springer SE acquired 88% of the stake in Business Insider Inc. for $343 million (€306 million)." Hmm, if Lopez solicited this, Tesla might actually see its $167M after all

That's a very interesting connection, because Axel Springer as one of the largest German publishers is very cozy with Volkswagen AG, the biggest spender of advertising dollars on the planet:

"Axel Springer Digital Ventures and Porsche Digital will be setting up a new, joint start-up accelerator. The companies signed an agreement on entering into a joint venture in which each holds a half share."

Axel Springer and Porsche to set up joint start-up accelerator​

A direct Tesla competitor such as Volkswagen being involved might also significant weaken First Amendment protections Business Insider might be able to claim.

 

[gora321]

GM pressed by 2 senators to build all EVs for U.S. stateside

Somebody must to be pressed somebody do it with a passion. Big difference!

 

[gora321]

Daimler to buy $23 billion of battery cells in EV push

I remember the time when Daimler announced that he is investing 1B in batteries and Elon said that one zero is missing.

 

[gora321]

Did anyone else know that Tripp had fled to Hungary?

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I wonder... any lawyers here... could a defendant moving to another country after a lawsuit was filed appear to be an attempt to evade justice, and cause problems for them in court?

Hungary has granted asylum recently to the former PM of Macedonia.

 

[cheshire cat]

I know Brexit has implications for the market. But this? Seriously? Please keep politics out of this thread.

Not Brexit just an illustration of dealing with the EEussr from an outsiders perspective and as relevant to the US as is China. Also a lot shorter in length and electrons than some previous posters to the point of. " ad nausiam "

 

[EVMeister]

Did anyone else know that Tripp had fled to Hungary?

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I wonder... any lawyers here... could a defendant moving to another country after a lawsuit was filed appear to be an attempt to evade justice, and cause problems for them in court?

I'm no lawyer, but I certainly can't see how that would be doing him any favours in any future trial. I think if not a serious offence in itself, it certainly adds to the "bad character" traits exposed throughout this ordeal.

 

[cheshire cat]

Premarket at $371

But looking like another "Zeberdee" day at least 'till this Pm, Boing !

 

[Anstandswauwau]

That's a very interesting connection, because Axel Springer as one of the largest German publishers is very cozy with Volkswagen AG, the biggest spender of advertising dollars on the planet:

"Axel Springer Digital Ventures and Porsche Digital will be setting up a new, joint start-up accelerator. The companies signed an agreement on entering into a joint venture in which each holds a half share."

Axel Springer and Porsche to set up joint start-up accelerator​

A direct Tesla competitor such as Volkswagen being involved might also significant weaken First Amendment protections Business Insider might be able to claim.

Interesting.

Was once asked by a headhunter to join this accelerator thingy … back in 2015. Honestly thought they canned it in the meantime. But apparently it does exist now.

 

[davecolene0606]

Three years later, Musk said that he would cancel the chairmanship of the board of directors. This sentence seems to be less respectful to the new chairman.

And promote her to COO...?

Fire Away!

 

[Tslynk67]

Luckily, Tripp did think ahead and set up that gofundme page...

- at this time he is 166 million 981 thousand 434 dollars short.

From Tripp's gofundme page...

 

[traxila]

Daimler to buy $23 billion of battery cells in EV push

I remember the time when Daimler announced that he is investing 1B in batteries and Elon said that one zero is missing.

Assuming $100/kWh and 80kWh batteries this is about 2.5 million cars over the 10 years the 23 billion is spent.

But of course, it will not be $100/kWh as Daimler is buying the batteries and also they plan to have like 100 different models using them so I am confused in the end. Why are they not announcing a battery factory?

 

[lklundin]

Do you have any more of his drawings?

Yes.

The exact nature of the problem is that I am only able to find the exact drawing that tracks the SP movement when I have the benefit of hindsight.

 

[yngwie_2012]

Tesla (TSLA) Gets a Buy Rating from Oppenheimer

 

[EVMeister]

From Tripp's gofundme page...

View attachment 360321

That all he got? Poor effort MS, poor effort. Could've added a zero to that at least, but I guess that would cut into his toothbrush budget.