TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

I posted this yesterday regarding the S&P 500, but it may be even more relevant today:

 

[KarenRei]

Closing: $365,71

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, someone threw a lot of money at that, not sure what they achieved though.

 

[nQva]

Come on, keep edging on down... mamma wants a new set of $360 Feb 19s...

Long time lurker here.. Thank god for the block button...

 

[EVNow]

So, they couldn't get it below 365, but they got it below 370.

 

[KarenRei]

Why pay so much premium? Wouldn't you like a bit more leverage?

Nah, I'm not too much of a gambler. Although I have lots of respect for those who take more aggressive investment strategies

 

[EVNow]

Well, someone threw a lot of money at that, not sure what they achieved though.

That might be a "market on close" order. 178k volume (out of total 6.2M).

As a comparison MSFT had a on close order of 6.1 Million (out of total 40M).

 

[brian45011]

Citi and Deutsche are the arrangers (I'm using European definitions because it has been a while since I have worked on a US securitisation). They market the bonds to investors.

The underwriter is the entity that decides if the borrower can have a lease. Teslas finance arm will decide this. Because they decide who qualifies for a lease/loan their "quality" is directly linked to the expected performance of the loans.

The ratings agencies will assess Tesla's policy around lending (e.g. what fico scores they need a borrower to have before they lend, whether there is a required deposit, how much money the borrower needs to earn, etc.) And decided if Tesla finance have a strict or loose policy, if it is loose they will apply a penalty (They model higher losses) to the expected performance of the loans being securitise. This affects bond sizes and pricing.

Thanks! Moodys' Pre-Sale shows the total TALT 2018B pool as $919.71MM with 8.95% OC which comports with the offered amount of ~$837 in bonds. Which entity ends up with the OC at the end of the bonds' terms if not fully used because of defaults?

Other interesting details from the Pre-Sale are the trends in these parameters:

 

[KarenRei]

So here's the super-hyped TeslaCharts FUD for the day:

We were all waiting with bated breath

 

[MarcusMaximus]

So here's the super-hyped TeslaCharts FUD for the day:

Seriously? This is what they were hyping?

Oh my god. You... you mean self-described TSLA bears have a lower estimate of Tesla sales than a pro-EV blog?!?!?!? How can this be?!?!?

Edit: Ah, I see, they’re trying to claim there’s an abnormal lag between delivery and their own estimate of VINs registered there. A database that’s known to lag behind actual changes. Oh noes!

 

[Toolsmack]

So let’s just plan on next Friday being close to max pain again and trade accordingly

 

[jhm]

The big question is: will we see the repeat of last Friday tomorrow ?
We are again close to 380, but the Max Pain is again pretty low at $345:

View attachment 360710

Last week, the MMs managed to bring it down almost exactly to max pain.
Will they do it again ?

Yesterday max pain was $345. It seems that, if your open yesterday was worth more than it would be if expiring at max pain, it would have been good to sell. We often think of max pain from the perspective of what it means to stock price. But it seems it could be even more valuable to look at it as a strategy for closing an option prior to expiration. Now if a bunch of options that were set to lose value if the price settle near max pain had in fact been closed, that would have shifted the max pain point up. So perhaps there is some sort of equilibrium to be had in this. So as of yesterday, there were far too many open call options above the pain.

 

[gringotuanis]

1

That might be a "market on close" order. 178k volume (out of total 6.2M).

As a comparison MSFT had a on close order of 6.1 Million (out of total 40M).

I show volume of 2.7 million today. Where are you seeing 6 million volume?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Building options on both ends. (pun intended).. B.S.B. Dec 21 345/330/325 bear put spread. cost 1.60$. the downside put was .80c or else the spread would have been .80 for the 15$ B.S.spread.

Working on a similar for 370/395 calls for Feb19 but it's a bit $$ (10$ or 2.5x) at this point. The Feb 400/425 is only 8$ (or 3.2x) at this point, will probably have to enter the front call on a downdraft, then sell the upside call when we get a pop (if)

Thanks for this. I closed one of my short puts that expires next week when SP was at $371

 

[Artful Dodger]

agnostic on the warp subsystems....I freaking knew it!

Lol! run a DIAGNOSTIC on the warp subsystem, Commander. Its coming up all 3s...

CH33RS!

 

[oneday]

I posted this yesterday regarding the S&P 500, but it may be even more relevant today:

Care to explain what I'm seeing here. Or what this chart means? Does it mean S&P generally has a holiday rally?

 

[EVNow]

Why pay so much premium? Wouldn't you like a bit more leverage?

More leverage gets you more theta, too.

 

[anthonyj]

Uptrend is still intact. Lots of the spikes in volume today caused by algos mirroring the broader market. Compare the 2:30ish volume spike in Tesla and stocks like Netflix and you will see.

 

[Earlian]

I posted this yesterday regarding the S&P 500, but it may be even more relevant today:

Thanks for the reminder, Curt!

And compared to TSLA and nasdaq+s&p500 from 11/30 - 12/14:

Well....

 

[Cherry Wine]

Hi all -- I just posted a thread, TSLA in a Bear Market, where I encourage you to share your thoughts on how TSLA will act in the event of a general market downtrend, which looks increasingly likely. I hope some of the more seasoned posters within this forum choose to participate -- I think we could all benefit from a thorough discussion of the topic.