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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Dumb question... Is the Megapack made by the Tesla that we theoretically own a part of as TSLA stockholders, and it's success therefore adds to my stock value?
Yes.
Or is the Megapack made by a Tesla division the success of which does not directly affect my stock value?
No.
I was just... um, AFAF...
Huh? A what A what?
 
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OT
Differences are good. That's what makes us unique. If we were all the same, life would be pretty boring.
In Canada, all major financial institutions use M for thousand and MM for million. We can thank the Romans for that.

Thanks for that information. The M is from the Latin for 1000, Mille. MM in Roman numerals is 2000, and M with a bar over it is 1,000,000. As you note MM nowadays is often meant for 1,000,000 in reference to currency.

K is from the Greek for 1000, roughly translated as Kilo. And K is computer-speak for 1024 which is a round number (2^10) in the binary notation used internally within computers. The Commodore 64 name referred to its 65,536 (64 x 1024) bytes.

I always write out the full number or write the the full word Million to avoid confusion, especially when writing for a global audience. K in place of 000 seems to save very little typing space, so I write out the full number.
 
Here we go, the Megapack is indeed Mega!

(...) Tesla is listing the project as having a total capacity of 1,200 MWh, which would mean that each Megapack has a capacity of 2,673 kWh. (...) The total capacity of those 449 Megapacks represents more energy capacity than Tesla Energy deployed throughout its first 3 years of operation – all Powerpacks and Powerwalls combined. (...)

Tesla’s new Megapack to debut at giant energy storage project in California

... I cannot wait for the moment Wall Street finally wakes up and considered TE as a part of Tesla they need to add to their assessment....

Building the batteries as a container-sized pack seems like the smart/obvious thing to do, ease of transportation, do as much as you can at the factory, bolt it on to a concrete slab, plug it in, and go.
 
Hi Jim, IMHO, your current play isn't really swing trading; its day trading.

Let’s call it “week” trading, and the pun may be apt as it was too much to expect the SP to drop from mid-week and $17 on Friday to get back to Max Pain ~$360.......although it did move most of the way. Broker didn’t get my 3:48 message to buy at market in time, but likely the $367 limit order will close Monday morning. Don’t want this play hanging over my head while I steal away for a couple of days of golf in Beaufort. I’m mostly a buy and hold guy, so I’m not sure I’m going to do this again.
 
Weekend OT, just one data point:

Austria, reserved Feb. 2017, ordered today. Delivery Feb.2019.

I never bough a new car before, I never spend more than 17k on a car before. Now I'm in with LR AWD, red, FSD...

You've spent $17k on a car before? Meh. I've never spent more than $5k on a car before. ;)

If Tesla can pry open my pocketbook, they can pry open anyone's ;)
 
Weekend OT, just one data point:

Austria, reserved Feb. 2017, ordered today. Delivery Feb.2019.

I never bough a new car before, I never spend more than 17k on a car before. Now I'm in with LR AWD, red, FSD...

One side effect: I spend way too much time in the investors section here. I hardly spent any time in other sections. Today is different, market closed and I'm loosing my time in the others sections... I need to block TMC soon...
 
Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 6m6 minutes ago

Tesla is releasing all vehicles for sale today where original customer can’t take delivery before end of year. Reminder to US buyers that $7500 tax credit drops in half in 2 weeks. Order online http://Tesla.com or visit stores.

Do I understand correctly that he is saying they don´t deliver theses cars to the people that originally ordered them and giving them to others who can take delivery more quickly instead? Some people are going to be pissed I guess... But a good way to make money in the short term.

Maybe that corresponds to the "secret" that the truck driver tweeted about (discussed above)?
 
Do I understand correctly that he is saying they don´t deliver theses cars to the people that originally ordered them and giving them to others who can take delivery more quickly instead? Some people are going to be pissed I guess... But a good way to make money in the short term.
The exact car doesn't matter. The people will still get their car next year. Tesla is doing the right thing by getting cars to people who can take them while 7,500 is in play. Alternative is people who can take cars now, don't get one and Tesla has more inventory overhang. No one benefits from that scenario.

Addendum: key clause
where original customer can’t take delivery before end of year
 
Do I understand correctly that he is saying they don´t deliver theses cars to the people that originally ordered them and giving them to others who can take delivery more quickly instead? Some people are going to be pissed I guess... But a good way to make money in the short term.

Maybe that corresponds to the "secret" that the truck driver tweeted about (discussed above)?

If they can't take delivery before EOY Tesla has time to produce them within the last week of the year or the first week of next year. That's 12000 cars. Noone will be pissed....
 
Electrek seems to have extra information there:

We are talking about Tesla loaners, display cars, and test drive vehicles being released so that Tesla salespeople can offer them to customers.

Though Musk specifically said that it’s only “where original customers can’t take delivery before the end of the year.”

Sources say that Tesla still has some significant number of vehicles in inventory at some delivery hubs, especially the new Model 3 Mid-Range.

That sounds like (bear interpretation) they have extra cars they want to sell and are declaring them as "original owner can´t take delivery before EOY" to make it look better.

https://electrek.co/2018/12/15/tesla-releasing-vehicles-sale-end-year-push-tax-credit/
 
My take is they are selling at a loss. They've priced it cheaper than the price in their home market by about $3K. That makes no sense financially since they have to ship each Kona here first before they can sell it. Unlike Tesla, existing manufacturers can afford to sell EVs at a loss, at-least temporarily and at low volumes like they are doing here.

The first thing to note is that that is for the base version of the car. Pricing for other trim levels to be released later. (Just like the price for the base Model 3 is $35k.) How many base Kona's are they going to actually make? They are probably planning for most people to take an upgraded trim level.
 
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If they can't take delivery before EOY Tesla has time to produce them within the last week of the year or the first week of next year. That's 12000 cars. Noone will be pissed....

None will be pissed, except shorts, because Tesla might execute another feat of picture-perfect inventory management at the end of Q4, like they did at the end of Q3? ;)
 
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Regarding #ExplaintheVins from TeslaCharts. I've been racking my brains what the hoopla is all about and why they think this is the chart to end all charts. So from my own understanding, this is the basic premise:

Tesla is overstating their Q3 sales because the number sold is far less than the Vins registered as shown in some public database (NVMTIS).

They contend that the funds from the fraudulent sales likely come from their ABL, reporting the accessed credit line as sales. They cite an example where a Ford dealer withheld reporting of sales to Ford while already receiving the cash from Ford credit. Funds were withheld for an average of 55 days in that example. So a form of check kiting. In this case it's called a floor financing model.

So essentially it furthers the TSLAQ premise that the entire company is a massive pyramid scheme. They will keep on inflating these sales figures quarter after quarter using this method until there is no more source of funds to access.

The problem with this is that this would involve a massive conspiracy on a lot of Tesla employees. For example:

1. Accounting staff will have to falsely book two sides of the entry, one side to draw on the credit line not for its suited purpose. The other side to book sales and not questioning where the funds came from.
2. Delivery and Logistics - all the false sales would need to be moved in some location. Because these cars will not get delivered , it would assume these employees are in on the scheme and just turn a blind eye on sitting inventories.

Now if you are a family business like a dealership, this is probably not impossible to coordinate but eventually the whole scheme crumbles as with all pyramid scheme like this.

Am I missing something else? Is this really how the TSLA shorts think to come up with such a convoluted fantasy just to satisfy their premise?
 
That’s very interesting. Fred glosses over the even bigger story that it is Tesla who will be supplying the 1.2 GWh batteries for the Vistra project. To my knowledge the battery supplier for the Vistra project was not previously reported.

If Fred is correct that Tesla will be building the Vistra battery, that would mean that Tesla will be providing batteries for two GWh-scale projects for PG&E — the 1.2GWh Vistra project referred to in the Electrek article and the separate project PG&E will own of 730-1095 MWh.

Those two batteries are currently expected to be the two largest in the world when completed (deadline 12/2020 for each). Storage will replace 3 California gas plants as PG&E nabs approval for world's largest batteries

I believe this is what President Trump (then Candidate Trump) meant, when he said "They’re going to see so many victories, they may get tired of winning."
 
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