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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Tomorrow should be interesting in regards to SP.
OT:



Oh boy. So the idiot House Republican right-wingers are siding with Trump, because they're total dumbasses. Pelosi says they don't have the votes for a bill with billions of dollars in stupid wall funding. Pelosi is one *hell* of a vote counter; the odds are she's right, even though this would require 20 House GOP members to say no to the wall funding.

The Senate is likely to balk as well; many Republican Senators don't like to be blackmailed by idiots. So, high odds of shutdown and a clean bill in two weeks.

If they somehow manage to cram it through by knuckling under to Trump, the idiot wall funding is going to be passed by the narrowest of margins and -- being deeply unpopular -- will help elect Democrats. It might even be rescinded.
And if it's actually built there is a big chance that it is torn down or left to fall apart. Maintenance is going to be a nightmare.
 
If they somehow manage to cram it through by knuckling under to Trump, the idiot wall funding is going to be passed by the narrowest of margins and -- being deeply unpopular -- will help elect Democrats. It might even be rescinded.

Agree, and if Dems don't fight, they only reinforce Trump Nutty Tantrums - TNTs? Despite maybe even more downside on my recent stock purchases, I'd still welcome the additional reason to get the orange guy out and in cuffs. The wall is all about his 2020 re-election with indictments waiting in the wings should he get ousted. Can we invest in him going to jail somehow?

Sorry Mods, a bit off topic... just consider that I bought $TSLA knowing he could do this anyway. For all those that think 290's, sorry... you'll miss the bottom and just I have no idea how you value Tesla at $290 unless the floor drops out everywhere. Recall the economy is still strong and someone here was buying into Amazon for that reason.
 
I should just buy shares or deep ITM LEAPS and zone out.
I like buying DITM LEAPS, too.

Anyone considering buying shares might want to consider them. The Jan '21 $100 LEAP as of today's close is bid $223.50 and ask $228.50. You'd probably be able to buy it for $226. The stock closed at $315.30, so that's about $10-11 time value for the next two years.

That option will trade dollar-for-dollar with the share price until near its expiration, so it's like buying the shares at a $90 discount (or being able to control more shares with the same $$).

If, as we all expect, the share price rises by 2021, the percentage gain will be greater with the LEAP than with the shares.

I'm amazed that only 23 of those LEAPS exist (and none exist for the others near its strike price).
 
OT

Good off-topic potential discussion that has significant potential to affect the TSLA SP.

I sense that a large decision point will be the ex-GM employee's attitude about their current UAW membership. Will they be willing to drop the union for a job opportunity at Tesla?

Even more interesting: what will be their governor's position? Or that of the state Reps and Senators? Those are the people that are in the pocket of the respective auto dealers associations who boug---, I mean, demanded protective legislation.

[MODs - feel free to move this to the politics area...]

OT
It would be great for Ohio and US if Tesla came to the state for many reasons but politics and unions could make it difficult to operate.

Ohio is not desperate and they can always get more military money curtesy of Trump before the elections. Therefore I would not count on any concessions.
 
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It didn’t when that plant was called NUMMI.

NUMMI is in California. Blue coast. Ohio is a crucial swing state every four years. Totally different optics for the red portion of the country. I don't see how Tesla assuming a plant there wouldn't be of considerable political interest, and both sides would definitely try to spin it. Would be quite a show, I think.
 
I'm going to have $335 and $360 puts execute on me this and the next week. But if I weren't listening to you, I'd still be short on $370 put that I bought back first time you warned. So thanks.
BTW, I'm thinking about exchanging tommorow's $335 put for Jan $310 put even (both short of course), Thoughts?

That should work, but I did it differently. Bought back tomorrows 335 put and sold 12/28 330 for small credit and plan to continue rolling until late January, always for credit if possible.
 
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I like buying DITM LEAPS, too.

Anyone considering buying shares might want to consider them. The Jan '21 $100 LEAP as of today's close is bid $223.50 and ask $228.50. You'd probably be able to buy it for $226. The stock closed at $315.30, so that's about $10-11 time value for the next two years.

That option will trade dollar-for-dollar with the share price until near its expiration, so it's like buying the shares at a $90 discount (or being able to control more shares with the same $$).

If, as we all expect, the share price rises by 2021, the percentage gain will be greater with the LEAP than with the shares.

I'm amazed that only 23 of those LEAPS exist (and none exist for the others near its strike price).
 
You didn't clarify "certain situations" -- but Tesla (and other EV, I believe) drivers in cold weather areas experience (significantly) decreased range. Even with pre-heating, I lost ~30 rated on a 11.7 mile commute yesterday AM -- I know worst case scenario, etc. but that's also a "situation".
Can't argue about other items.TSLA.
@f?Re
to decrease range anxiety, just get the Tesla variant of bluetooth jumper cables.,
Found these at a discount warehouse. he said they are "auto-sensing" so you don't have to do "red to red".
want a pair?
48412344_10216494928599934_949626267102085120_n.jpg
 
I use DITM leaps as well. I also sell above market calls over them starting one or two months out and rolling forward each month when time premium has shrunk.
Roll up or down strikes depending on market movement. Not fool proof, but I have always gained more time premium than I lose on the DITM leaps.

Try, of course to buy the Leaps when market is relatively low (like now) and hold off on the shorter covered calls until the stock has recovered substantially.
 
One more for your list of reasons the Model 3 will do well in Europe...

Europeans are more likely to have a clear understanding of climate change, and more likely to be part of a regime that incents decarbonisation. (No offence to readers of this thread, which is by and large well informed ).

Unfortunately, I see little correlation between people understanding the cause of global warming and adjusting their lifestyles. The trend to gas guzzling SUVs (24% in Germany in '17) is unbroken. If anyone raises the topic of putting a speed limit on the Autobahn he'll get similar reactions as if he proposed a ban on firearms in the US despite everybody knowing how much consumption goes up when you blast at 200 km/h. Admitted, some countries behave better but overall EU is not as green as you think.

Having said this, I still expect the 3 to sell in similar numbers as in the states, going by approximate distribution of early reservations. Initial take rate of the higher specs 3P and 3D could even be higher as we had one more year to save cash and the alternative being even longer wait time.

P.S.: Order process still closed for Germany. Can't decide whether current price action or not being able to order has the worse effect on my mood. Also makes me wonder if one caused the other.
 
OT


Do you care to share and potential considerations? Are you looking at miners ($ALB, $SQM), they are getting absolutely crushed recently.

Or maybe going the etf route with something like $LIT. Expense ratio is high but might be good for broad exposure and the added leverage that miners offer relative to the underlying commodity (if the relationship behaves similarly to gold and its miners).

Dalio, Greenblatt, and Tudor all seem to be trimming their positions.

ALB is who I’ve followed the most for trading. I have LIT in retirement accounts. What a terrible year.
 
LEAF has the numbers, only one fire that I'm aware of, no determination as to the cause that I can find, and I've looked, a lot. The Bolt should have around 40K cars on the road by now, never heard of a fire. It shouldn't be a surprise, Tesla does use a more energy dense, and volatile cell chemistry.

Well, and who drives a Bolt at 100mph before hitting a cement curb and then tree?
 
Actually resale values (technically not residual values since the latter is contractual and may or may not reflect expected resale value) depend on many variables other than the vehicle. In practice automotive leases have two components; money factor-translates to interest rate and residual value- the contractually set vehicle value at end of the full term lease. Either or both can be 'subvened' in which one party subsidizes either interest rate or residual value or both. Tesla subvened residual value for both leases and loans when Model S and X were launched, and the contingent liability for those, while diminishing rapidly, still is on Tesla's books.

New model introduction is a 'black art' for residual value, but entities like Automotive Lease Guide devote major effort to establishing justifiable comparable data, so not much major error takes place any more. They, and others, were very reluctant to bet on Electric vehicles, especially after the gigantic bath that had already been in their minds from the original BMW 7 series (losses of >$14,000 per vehicle), plus a plethora of losses on specific models that seems easily predictable. That all ended out with pretty much zero enthusiasm for Model S, itself in a category that typically has >60% of volume in leases in the US and UK. Thus, Elon personally placed residual value guarantees at effectively MB S-class typical levels. As it happened, Tesla has ended out with negligible losses on that arrangement.

Now to Model 3 where among the most frequent trades are vehicles that range from ~50% leases to ~80% leases in US/UK. The typical segment resale values are very well documented, but Model 3 remains an outlier not only because of Tesla but due to sedan and high performance versions. My personal point of view is that Model 3 leasing will begin in the US Quarter 1 of 2019, probably in partnership with a major operator that can also assume S and X, since the existing servicer is pretty much illiquid right now. Some, like Chase, Wells Fargo and Ally, are past masters of devising creative lease offerings and can fund Tesla operations quite easily. Chase also operates 'captives' for JLR (distinctly branded Jaguar and Land Rover), Mazda, Subaru, Maserati and others. Chase has pioneered some quite creative exotic car deals through the years. Tesla now has the volume and credibility to attract major attention in this sector and can also do some stellar financial engineering for other items (Superchargers?, Stores?, and the list goes on...

The markets will quickly get excited about such deals because they'll reduce costs, facilitate increased sale volume and dramatically reduce direct working capital requirements. Pretty rapid value can be released this way.

Thank you, yes i hope Tesla signs some strong leasing partnerships.

While Tesla mostly use partners for model S/X leases, they still sold 2,500 S/X through their in-house leasing program in Q3 (c.$150m cash cost).

I doubt the illiquid partner you mention (MUSA) was a significant % of Tesla's lease sales, they were only with Tesla for a few months.
 
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