I don't see demand being an issue yet. Europe and China can absorb any downturn here. If domestic car demand does become a real issue it will be for the entire auto market so not much we can do.
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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Sold 350 shares of TSLA for 76 shares of AMZN.
Nothing wrong with TSLA, I just find AMZN super appealing at $1463. Part of this is few hours last night with friends immersed in big companies IT operations, and realization that they didn't even start moving to AWS, but they're all excited.
Still massively long TSLA, still thinking they're the biggest long term opportunity out there.
Nothing wrong with TSLA, I just find AMZN super appealing at $1463. Part of this is few hours last night with friends immersed in big companies IT operations, and realization that they didn't even start moving to AWS, but they're all excited.
Still massively long TSLA, still thinking they're the biggest long term opportunity out there.
bhtooefr
Active Member
Ahh, Business Insider.
For when you want timely, pertinent news about someone screwing around with battery modules without a BMS, overcharging them, and them catching on fire... a month ago.
Any reasons given for this... factory upgrades? Are people still at work, or getting some needed time off and saving some cash because they have enough in the pipeline? No one knows...
Worst case, SR comes early (or on time in Q3). Is that so bad? I still think no one will actually buy the $35K version. It only gets them in the store when they start to imagine themselves in one, then just gotta have that glass roof or power seats. Then the software sales after that when FSD starts to tease them. Bring it on!
My worry is short term q4 results. I’m all in shares, so I’m focused long term, but it is nerve wracking to see the price drop.
I can only imagine how the option holder’s feel!
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Seriously don’t worry about demand.
Worry about Brexit, interest rates, the economy, and the crazy Orange One. But not demand
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I have quite a bit of options, and yea, it’s ugly. But mine don’t expire til June, so there’s time.
True, but those were different times. Tesla has matured in three different industries in multiple countries.
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
I was musing over this during the morning and came to the conclusion that if everything does go into the crapper for a while the worst thing that happens is they shift opening a European GF by a year or two and have Fremont produce for North America, Europe, etc. for the time being. Not saying this is necessary, but it's rather easy to scale back production (if macro environment affects demand) for factories that haven't been built.
They can even ship some production to Shanghai for a while to eat that up and do final assembly there.Not saying that I think this is what is going to happen, but Fremont at 6000/week is hardly meeting worldwide demand even in a down economy. This isn't even factoring in GF1 production simply being shifted to Tesla energy. Expanding production/growth can be there and coming out with Y/Semi/Truck.
Or what I read on Twitter is right and it's all a Ponzi scheme about to collapse!
anthonyj
Stonks
A trader just opened up a deep In-The-Money bull put spread. They sold 250 of the Jan18 $500 puts and bought 250 Jan18 $550 puts. Wouldn't this imply a price of $500-$550 for max profit? Anyone know about spreads?
Ulmo
Active Member
The level of FUD necessary to corrupt the linked video to mean anything bad is extreme. As a close watcher of Rich Rebuilds, I was in no illusion about the mistakes he made. I had identified the mistakes he had made in prior videos about the Daisy. When he posted the unfortunate event, he specifically identified the many mistakes he made, NONE of which Tesla makes. Since a lot of intentionally stupid people didn't understand that, he posted a followup video explaining all of this in very simple terms.
Tesla batteries are far safer than ICE gasoline tanks and engines. I drove past not one, but TWO gasoline car fires that I think were fatal when I came home from my friend's house a few weeks ago, and neither was an electric vehicle. Did you see the news about those gasoline car fires? Most likely not, which is my point. Pure FUD.
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Selling the lower strike is a bear put spread. In this case the stock staying below $500 is max profit. That seems like a reasonable bet - even Tesla has an incentive for the stock to stay below that price due to their bond hedging.
Bear Put Spread - Fidelity
OT
There have been Volt fires. I also wonder what caused the apparently-spontaneous Leaf fire.
Neither the Leaf nor the Bolt is advertised as a "speed demon" car, so they don't attract the reckless drivers.
There are a pretty small number of fires which don't fall in the reckless-driver category. The two underside puncture fires from before the titanium shield was added; the one in the garage which was on fire; the two wiring defect fires; and this one, which was probably improper towing, but might have been another wiring defect (given that it started in the front of the car).
At the same rate of non-reckless-driver fires, you'd expect the Bolt to have had less than half a fire so far (i.e. zero).
The Leaf does have the numbers to potentially say that it has a lower rate of fires than Tesla; 1 when you'd expect 4. Still not statistically very solid there...
Of course, gasoline cars have ten times higher rates of fires than Teslas do. And the fires are far more deadly. Nobody's died in an electric car which caught on fire except the reckless drivers & their passengers who were killed due to impact, and not even all of them.
40K is still too low to draw conclusions, given that there are something like 500,000 Teslas on the road.
There have been Volt fires. I also wonder what caused the apparently-spontaneous Leaf fire.
I think Tesla also attracts more reckless drivers, which is frankly the cause of many of the reported Tesla fires.
Neither the Leaf nor the Bolt is advertised as a "speed demon" car, so they don't attract the reckless drivers.There are a pretty small number of fires which don't fall in the reckless-driver category. The two underside puncture fires from before the titanium shield was added; the one in the garage which was on fire; the two wiring defect fires; and this one, which was probably improper towing, but might have been another wiring defect (given that it started in the front of the car).
At the same rate of non-reckless-driver fires, you'd expect the Bolt to have had less than half a fire so far (i.e. zero).
The Leaf does have the numbers to potentially say that it has a lower rate of fires than Tesla; 1 when you'd expect 4. Still not statistically very solid there...
Of course, gasoline cars have ten times higher rates of fires than Teslas do. And the fires are far more deadly. Nobody's died in an electric car which caught on fire except the reckless drivers & their passengers who were killed due to impact, and not even all of them.
Long form of @uselesslogin s reply (typed it already)
Most return is is stock is under 500.
Below 500 both sides execute, net: sell - buy cost of the options + $50x100 per option
Above 500, below 550, sold expires worthless, net: sell - buy plus (550-stock price) x100
Above 550, both expire worthless, net: sell - buy cost of the options
RobStark
Well-Known Member
It was a drunk driver that hit a barrier in a Mexican traffic circle at estimated speeds over 100 mph then careened off through a solid brick wall.
Driver walked away from totaled Model S and ordered another Tesla the next day.
Well, consensus here is that we'll see manipulations and bear raids for the holiday week. This is a well-documented phenomenon, *and* many longer-term long traders are away from their desks over the holiday.
So it's a *self fulfilling prophecy* to some extent... if you think it's going to be manipulated downward until deliveries are reported, you might delay buying until just before then. As a result I wouldn't be surprised to see a huge buying surge on Dec. 31 just before end of quarter, or maybe on Dec. 28th for those who plan to take New Year's Eve off, but I would be surprised to see a big rally between now and then (unless it's driven by options as Curt suggested is a possibility).
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