TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[X Fan]

So random datapoint - one that you've heard a million times before, I'm sure. I'm in the US now, and while my test drive is tomorrow, I took a sneak peak by the Tesla store and saw a Model 3 for the first time in person. Ready for the story you've heard a million times?

Gorgeous. Way better than the pictures, and I expected a lot from the pictures. Way roomier inside than I expected, even after hearing that exact same thing said many times before. Loved the open-pore wood. Loved the handles. Loved the seats. Loved the screen. Loved everything about the bloody thing. And so can't wait to drive it tomorrow.

Tesla does amazing work. Seriously, my heartfelt thanks to everyone who worked on it. This thing is going to take over Europe the same way it did the US.

Not a bad color in the bunch.

Btw: re test drive: Pictures or it didn’t happen.....

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Rumor:

A commenter on Electrek claims he has 2 factory sources stating production is currently > 7k/week, in direct contradiction to Troy’s 3400/week estimate.

For what it’s worth.

IIRC Troy's estimate for current production rate is based on the number of VINs assigned (e.g. if no VINs are assigned on a Saturday, that means they stopped production and canceled the weekend shift). I think a lot of people are taking this at face value instead of with a very, very large grain of salt. I dropped by Fremont tonight and I assure you they are well over 3.4k/week.

Troy has the problem of the samples not being random. In the beginning it kind of works when the sample is a large % of actual sales - but as the % declines, the non-randomness of the sample bites.

Of course that doesn't mean a random comment from an unknown person is any more reliable.

Agreed. Selection bias and a low sample rate that is only getting lower. Additionally, more VIN gaps are appearing, which affect the production and deliveries estimates that utilize numerical VIN values. Caveat emptor ...

 

[PANN]

Just try to think logically here...

After Q3, Q4 financials become the make-or-break quarter, Elon/Deepak not taking it lightly.

If the recent short thesis about Tesla slowing down M3 production due to very soft demand in US is legit, we should have seen Tesla rushing to take orders (and deposits) in Europe much earlier than previously announced -- that didn't happen. We should also have seen Tesla rushed to register VINs for Europe and start production for Europe earlier than previously announced -- that didn't happen either.

Am I missing something here? The short thesis just doesn't make logic sense to me.

 

[anthonyj]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Trump Discusses Firing Fed's Powell After Latest Rate Hike, Sources Say

Mod: Edited. Please provide some text with the link, so people can decide whether to click or not. --ggr.

 

[EVNow]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Trump Discusses Firing Fed's Powell After Latest Rate Hike, Sources Say

Mod: Edited. Please provide some text with the link, so people can decide whether to click or not. --ggr.

Oh man. Trump is really going to wreck the economy. Usually this happens in the 4th year of Republican presidents, but Trump is special.

 

[Rarity]

This is just Trump expressing his displeasure of Powell in a theatric way. I'm not sure that Trump is wrong on the substance of the critique either.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Weekend Off-topic:

MORE REASONS I KNOW THE END IS NIGH:

#42. I just saw Pamela Anderson playing the Virgin Mary on CBC TV.

OTG, its a re-run from 2011... those WERE the End of Days...

Cheers!

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

You have no idea what suffering is like. I hold NVDA.

You've gone through stuff like this?

That was 98.7% or maybe 99.3% loss at some point on one of my accounts.

It can always get worse. NVDA is where it was 18 months ago. I accept your personal entry point may be much worse.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Just thought I'd change my Avatar as well. Notice how he sits watching TV with the elbow up.
Coolest dog ever!
Bandit

 

[dc_h]

To be more precise: Hit me, then ran over my face, then stopped the car, took a look at me, decided he had to kill me as now I could identify him (illegal immigrant, didn’t want to get shipped home....his words later on), then got back in the car, ran over me again in reverse, then dragged me 50’ as my body got wedged under the engine bay.

My wife put a sticker on my car (the black S) that says ‘no bad day’, because I haven’t had a bad day since leaving the hospital. Sorry for OT...but ya know, weekend and all

Apologies for my sarcasm and thank you for your service. It’s hard to imagine what you went through, but your response is a model for everyone. I wish I’d always handled lesser losses half as well.

 

[EVMeister]

Gorgeous. Way better than the pictures, and I expected a lot from the pictures.

For anybody who hasn't been fortunate enough to see it 'in the flesh'. There's really just something about the car. I too looked at so many pictures and videos before seeing it in person. But the actual product is just so much nicer to look at than the already attractive thing portrayed in the photos and videos. It really is a work of art and I agree that this should do really well in Europe. In my circle of friends and acquaintances and what I see on other forums it seems to be being warmly anticipated here in the UK. Biggest uncertainty is price (especially with the B word on the horizon) and which models will be available when, but the product itself is lovely.

 

[Causalien]

So far, I bought the more on the bottom yesterday (albeit only 1 day of trading since). At least I'm not digging down further in the hole!
More shares on hand than I cared for, but still way up on the year and if earnings pop this beast, I'm golden.

Sure glad I'm not trading options. I don't know how you guys do it and enjoy life at the same time. Just buy some stock then go on vacation and check back in 6-12 months is my take.

I've seen my portfolio go to almost zero twice already. I've learned my lessons and have strict rules. AlsoSo this volatility is nothing compared to those.

I care more about being right on my stock thesis. And being wrong gives me the same kind of sinking feeling as losing everything. Take DB for example. It' s such a small investment compared to tesla, but I really hate being wrong on it so far.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Funding Secured!! for one California storage project.

Macquarie Capital Provides $100M in Debt Financing for SoCal Ed Battery Storage | Los Angeles Business Journal

 

[mrdoubleb]

Teslarati has an article out that suggests some German study says Tesla could sell up to 20k cars in the country next year and become the No1 EV brand by far.

Ok that is interesting speculation, but what is more newsworthy is a video at the bottom of the article claiming to show the first large EU shipments of Model 3s having arrived at the Zeebrugge port in Belgium. I know the cars are wrapped but still not sure those are M3s. This site already handles 3 million cars per year for other brands. What do you guys think, are those Model 3s?
ICO verwacht 3.000 Tesla's per week in Zeebrugge

 

[NicoV]

Teslarati has an article out that suggests some German study says Tesla could sell up to 20k cars in the country next year and become the No1 EV brand by far.

Ok that is interesting speculation, but what is more newsworthy is a video at the bottom of the article claiming to show the first large EU shipments of Model 3s having arrived at the Zeebrugge port in Belgium. I know the cars are wrapped but still not sure those are M3s. This site already handles 3 million cars per year for other brands. What do you guys think, are those Model 3s?
ICO verwacht 3.000 Tesla's per week in Zeebrugge

No. The article clearly states ‘starting from februari’.

 

[mrdoubleb]

No. The article clearly states ‘starting from februari’.

Yeah I could see that. I think Teslarati jumped the gun on this one. The video is more a generic view of their port/facilities, but Teslarati think it is the first big Model 3 shipment.

 

[Alphacrux]

Just try to think logically here...

After Q3, Q4 financials become the make-or-break quarter, Elon/Deepak not taking it lightly.

If the recent short thesis about Tesla slowing down M3 production due to very soft demand in US is legit, we should have seen Tesla rushing to take orders (and deposits) in Europe much earlier than previously announced -- that didn't happen. We should also have seen Tesla rushed to register VINs for Europe and start production for Europe earlier than previously announced -- that didn't happen either.

Am I missing something here? The short thesis just doesn't make logic sense to me.

Exactly what I’d like to know. I’m guessing end of the full tax credit in the us will have been enough to sustain demand slightly ahead of q3 levels. The short thesis doesn’t make sense to me either, but I’ve been wracking my brain to understand the circumstances where it might have even a shred of viability.

To me it seems like they foresaw the demand curve and rushed the introduction of the lemur. Perhaps a more detailed analysis of lemur option pricing and discussion of possible demand levers that they could have pulled but didn’t might help.

What is perhaps a more interesting question is the sustained demand in the us at this price point starting in q1. Can they find enough savings in short range cost to maintain profit margin. Not to really worry about it if demand is expected to be high in Europe, which it is.

 

[JollyRoger]

Purley speculation.... Could Q4 production numbers be up?? Meaning sales to the European market pushing out quicker?

We are hearing very little about production Hell, and Ol' Musky appears to be diverting attention to the boring company.

If Q4 production numbers and margins are up due to lower production costs we could be in for a good start to the year.

 

[Johann Koeber]

If Tesla is building cars now that won't make it to consumers hands before 12/31 then these cars could be on the way to Europe. I know the beginning of the quarter will be production for overseas, but I don't know the cutoff date. Perhaps they are producing cars for Europe now?

OTOH Tesla wants to keep inventory low at the end of a quarter. Maybe they use the holiday season to upgrade the factory and not produce that many cars at all during this time.

 

[mutle]

No, there are different PDFs. The one you need is when you log in on the bottom right and says (German version) "Rechnung für Anzahlung". I confused that with the PDF from the Email in an earlier post I think, sorry.

Ah, you’re right. Then I’m order number 29 for Germany.