TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Earlian]

Regarding all theese estimates for q4 deliveries, I took a look into Tesla’s own Q4 outlook to get all this into some context.

I wish everyone a great 2019, that from a TSLA Investors view might be the year of the years.

 

[Thumper]

Nice profile pic. 52?

53. round tail lights. 2nd owner

 

[Cherry Wine]

Tesla (TSLA) Price Target Raised to $550 by Global Equities' Chowdhry

• During the week of December 24th, TSLA Model 3 Production was easily 6,500 per week

Hmm.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Tesla (TSLA) Price Target Raised to $550 by Global Equities' Chowder*

Tripe Chowder* is the bull version of Murky Mirror.*

* Names modified to avoid search engine hits that might be considered to give more credibility.

 

[Cattledog]

Tesla (TSLA) Price Target Raised to $550 by Global Equities' Chowdhry

Maybe Trip is actually TrendTrader. Yes, hmmm...

 

[JRP3]

Hmm.

Acid trip Chowdhry...

 

[elasalle]

Tripe Chowder* is the bull version of Murky Mirror.*

* Names modified to avoid engine mentions that might be considered to give more credibility.

Worse Bulls on TMC ... 550$ PT is I think what most TMCer's would say as well ...

 

[MP3Mike]

Noted, but don't mistake Tesla centers for dealerships: there are far, far, far more dealerships than Tesla centers so the average per dealership is not a useful metric for comparison.

Sure it is. It shows how much more capital efficient Tesla is.

 

[Todd Burch]

Quite the MMD this morning.

 

[SteveG3]

Worse Bulls on TMC ... 550$ PT is I think what most TMCer's would say as well ...

$550 is pretty much my current valuation of Tesla.

my price target is 10%-40% below fair value for the next 3-4 years (my time target for the flow of misinformation re Tesla/Elon/their products/TSLA to be more than halved from today’s levels).

 

[EVNow]

I have collected current Model 3 Q4 forecasts based on detailed models with a public methodology. These can be categorised into four different modelling methods each using different data.

Registered VINs method (Production estimate average 65,250):
Bloomberg/@tsrandall: 3 Production 67,700
FactChecking: 3 Production 62,800. 3 Deliveries 66,800.

Vin assignment chart distribution method (Production estimate average 52,328):
Bloomberg/@tsrandall: Production: 53,196 (increased from c.39k after some model changes yesterday)
@Troyteslike: 3 Production: 51,459. 3 Deliveries 54,707. S/X Production: 21,714k. S/X Deliveries 24,802.

Sample rate model & delivery data survey data method.
@ReflexFunds: 3 Deliveries 58,117. 3 Production 54,567. 3 Inventory 5,000. 3 in-transit 500.

Crowdsourced estimates method:
Troy’s estimate survey (ex max/min 10%): 3 production 60,181. 3 Deliveries 61,499. S/X production: 26,380. S/X Deliveries: 27,725.

The average of the average estimates from each of the 4 different modelling methods leads to:
Model 3 Production: 58,081. Model 3 Deliveries 60,281.
I would say these final average numbers are probably our current best guess for Q4.

Wow - someone is pulling a Nate Silver on us here

 

[ggr]

Gap ups on TSLA always fill. It’s almost like a rule

...just filled it.

 

[EVNow]

It is interesting to watch the price action today. Whenever TSLA prices go out of sync with NASDAQ - someone pulls it up/down to have them trading at the same level (i.e. % up).

 

[humbaba]

Sure it is. It shows how much more capital efficient Tesla is.

Okay, so how many service centers does Tesla have? How many Ford dealerships are there? See how a per-dealership rate is not meaningful? How you'd expect there to be more sales per service center than dealership? It just isn't a useful metric for comparing the two.

People like having metrics because it gives a semblance of objectivity. But the choice of metric is subjective and choosing a poor or unrelated metric isn't helpful. When I was in service the most basic way in which soldiers were evaluated was PT score and being under weight. First sergeants love doing it because its "objective" -- but it sure sucks when you're penalized because you're three standard deviations removed from the mean -- absolutely fit with a ridiculously low body fat, but get evaluated poorly because weight was over and it had to go to body fat measures.

And, no, that wasn't me. There was zero chance of my hitting weight limit. But I really did get the data and crunch the numbers and he was three standard deviations above mean. I no longer remember what his body fat was, but it was actually dangerously low due to his really trying to get below weight. Using poor metrics gives poor results.

 

[EVNow]

Exept for tivoboy:

On Dec 17 when SP bounced around 355


On Dec 20

Hmmm …. all that depended a lot on the macros - which were truly unpredictable last couple of weeks - because of Trump & Fed.

Remember he also sold TSLA at 332 - but it went all the way to 380.

ps : Anyway, looks like today will be volatile - both Tesla & Nasdaq.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Okay, so how many service centers does Tesla have? How many Ford dealerships are there? See how a per-dealership rate is not meaningful? How you'd expect there to be more sales per service center than dealership? It just isn't a useful metric for comparing the two.

People like having metrics because it gives a semblance of objectivity. But the choice of metric is subjective and choosing a poor or unrelated metric isn't helpful. When I was in service the most basic way in which soldiers were evaluated was PT score and being under weight. First sergeants love doing it because its "objective" -- but it sure sucks when you're penalized because you're three standard deviations removed from the mean -- absolutely fit with a ridiculously low body fat, but get evaluated poorly because weight was over and it had to go to body fat measures.

And, no, that wasn't me. There was zero chance of my hitting weight limit. But I really did get the data and crunch the numbers and he was three standard deviations above mean. I no longer remember what his body fat was, but it was actually dangerously low due to his really trying to get below weight. Using poor metrics gives poor results.

It's a relevant metric, because it's relevant to Tesla's profitability. If Tesla sales staff are busy, but not rushed then:
1) Tesla is using much lower square footage and sales staff per sale than competitors
2) Customer delivery experience is improved from the 2018Q3 rush.

 

[Hock1]

Just want to reiterate my forecast for Q4. I kinda like that round number of 100,000 vehicles delivered:

Model 3: 71,000
Model S + X: 29,000

 

[defc0n]

Looking for a good entry point today.

 

[Hogfighter]

We closed at the end of last year at 311. We were smack dab in the middle of production hell, producing a trickle of 3’s, burning through cash like my second wife.

Today, 3’s are flying off the line, profitably. Massive free cash flow. No real competition on the horizon. FSD much closer to reality. 3 months away from the Y unveil.

The value for our $333 is far, far higher than it was a year ago for our $311. Now let’s get Tesla Energy ramped up!! Happy New Year everyone

 

[gtrplyr1]

Tripe Chowder* is the bull version of Murky Mirror.*

* Names modified to avoid search engine hits that might be considered to give more credibility.

While I agree with Trip regarding the Model3=iPhone I don't think Apple is doomed. Trip has been saying that for the last 4 years regarding Apple ..... BUT I agree that the excitement I used to feel when going into an Apple store is no longer there ....I was in a Tesla store yesterday and the Model3 is just an amazing piece of work. The thing with Apple is simple ... there were not that many people in the Tesla store but the Apple store was PACKED ... Apple is a cash machine .. period.

Both companies should/will do well in the next few years.