TSLA Technical Analysis

[ev-enthusiast]

Looks like $250 area is now support.
Let's see if we get a nice bounce from that area today.

 

[austinEV]

For the non-TA crowd, is an inverse unicorn good or bad?

Correct, it is good or bad.

 

[Joel]

Correct, it is good or bad.

:smile: In relation to a long position: is it favorable or unfavorable? Relative to a short position: favorable or unfavorable?

 

[ggr]

:smile: In relation to a long position: is it favorable or unfavorable? Relative to a short position: favorable or unfavorable?

Neither. Being long means you expect the stock price to go up and will profit if it does. Being short means you expect the stock price to go down, and will profit if it does. Note that what the company itself does, in terms of products or whatever, matters in those statements. Sometimes really good and profitable companies' stock prices will go down for all sorts of reasons.

 

[Joel]

Neither. Being long means you expect the stock price to go up and will profit if it does. Being short means you expect the stock price to go down, and will profit if it does. Note that what the company itself does, in terms of products or whatever, matters in those statements. Sometimes really good and profitable companies' stock prices will go down for all sorts of reasons.

Thanks. I understand what long and short positions are. I was inquiring into the "inverse unicorn." It is either a joke that went over my head or it is technical analysis: it tells us what we already know, but has very little predictive value.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Looks like $250 area is now support.
Let's see if we get a nice bounce from that area today.

In deed looks like we had to revisit $250 area for one more time.
Let's see if we are able to close above that level today.

 

[austinEV]

Thanks. I understand what long and short positions are. I was inquiring into the "inverse unicorn." It is either a joke that went over my head or it is technical analysis: it tells us what we already know, but has very little predictive value.

It is a joke. Among the serious TA comments, we poke fun and say we might as well look for dancing unicorns among the wedges and bull flags and cups-with-handles etc. Some people get upset thinking we are making fun of TA, but I think we can take it seriously and note when an honest unicorn shows up. If you see a duck, point it out, maybe duck formation will be the cool new TA.

 

[Joel]

It is a joke. Among the serious TA comments, we poke fun and say we might as well look for dancing unicorns among the wedges and bull flags and cups-with-handles etc. Some people get upset thinking we are making fun of TA, but I think we can take it seriously and note when an honest unicorn shows up. If you see a duck, point it out, maybe duck formation will be the cool new TA.

Thanks for clarifying :smile:

 

[Causalien]

Thanks for clarifying :smile:

That and TA charts are colorful like a Unicorn

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Looks like $250 area is now support.
Let's see if we get a nice bounce from that area today.

Yesterday's close came in at $253.57 just above the close the day before yesterday at $253.19 and the current 50DMA at $252.96. SP currently above all DMAs, positive.

Before getting back to the $260 level from August 18th/19th, I currently see yesterday's and September 9th HOD at $254.25 as well as $254.95 from August 31st as minor resistance.
I see some major resistance at the $260 level from August 18th/19th.
MACD trending upwards this is a bullish sign.
RSI currently at about 53.
What about Accum/Dist, anybody an idea?

A close above $255 area will be a positive sign for $260 area.

Until we get any new figures (deliveries, cash flow and so on) to fill in the our spread sheets, I see us trading in the $181.40 (LOD at March 27th) to $286.65 (HOD at July 20th) range.

That 20% drop from about $250 to $195.00 (LOD) at 24th of August came damn fast and got bought up during the follwoing days.
Don't be greedy at the top and keep some money for drastic drops during the next weeks as I expect volatility to rise during Model X first deliveries and production ramp up.
Better straddle or something

BTW the wedge formation that build during the last couple of days could resolve to the upside with some positive help from FOMC meeting with no big rate increase.

Please keep in mind FOMC meeting this week could change everything

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Looks like the wedge on the daily is currently breaking to the upside, $257.50 and climbing.
Would be nice to see $260 today and to see how much of a resistance there actually is.

Be careful with FOMC tomorrow, keep an eye on market.

 

[austinEV]

Looks like the wedge on the daily is currently breaking to the upside, $257.50 and climbing.
Would be nice to see $260 today and to see how much of a resistance there actually is.

Be careful with FOMC tomorrow, keep an eye on market.

Yeah, it is breaking out up, over the 50 day MA. I don't see any more real resistance points on the way back up at all.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Yeah, it is breaking out up, over the 50 day MA. I don't see any more real resistance points on the way back up at all.

Damn, I did not see that coming that quick.
Clearly above all DMAs now.
Knocked at $260 once!
Now consolidating right under $260 resistance.

Let's see how many people want to de-risk their position a bit in advance of tomorrows FOMC news.

 

[hoang51]

It's a nice break out from the $240-250 range and now sitting at $260 range. But tomorrow's FOMC news would either launch this higher or tank it. Still on the edge to either hold through it or get out and get back in later.

 

[hershey101]

Damn, I did not see that coming that quick.
Clearly above all DMAs now.
Knocked at $260 once!
Now consolidating right under $260 resistance.

Let's see how many people want to de-risk their position a bit in advance of tomorrows FOMC news.

About a month ago we had the same behavior, hit $261 and got brought back down by the general market... Tomorrow will tell whether history will repeat itself. Might be a good idea to get out of some short term plays today, and get back in after tomorrow.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

About a month ago we had the same behavior, hit $261 and got brought back down by the general market... Tomorrow will tell whether history will repeat itself. Might be a good idea to get out of some short term plays today, and get back in after tomorrow.

SP above $261: check
FED meeting: check
FED provided outlook on next year, slower rate hike, thus less uncertainity: check
Reduced protective put position by a third: check
Currently waiting for options expiry today (triple witching day?).
Still some hope for a dip to $240 region to get rid of my remaining puts, max pain is currently at $242.50.

I could imagine we move up to ATH with Model X Founders deliveries tailwind next week.
Monday and next week will be very interesting.
After Model X Founders deliveries I could imagine some great volatility again, no plans for that yet.

After five up days in a row yesterday's close came in slightly lower.
I have expected a big drop.

SP still above all DMAs, positive.

Update:
SP did not drop as much as I expected.
In fact SP now testing that $261 wall.
Once that is broken, it's of to the races to $270 area!

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Ok, given the current price action (green), somone is buying here.
Question:
Is this smart money buying on a down day given the macro data or is this dumb money?
Any ideas?

 

[Curt Renz]

Ok, given the current price action (green), somone is buying here.
Question:
Is this smart money buying on a down day given the macro data or is this dumb money?
Any ideas?

This is Triple Witching Day, the quarterly major expiration of stock options, stock index options and stock index futures. The Max Pain for TSLA options today is 245. No one is going to target that today, so 260 is the more likely candidate.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Let's see if we get a today's close above the current support at $260.
Some money flowing from Volkswagen to Tesla could help us here.
A close above the current support at $260 would be a bullish sign.
Further support is at $253 area (50DMA).
MACD currently looking good.
RSI not too hight, currently at about 60.
Currently no big resistance up to about $280.

Please be careful with your investments.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Liked yesterday's close at $261.06 above the $260 support area.
Nice consolidation after all the news and non-news recently reported by the news outlets and the corresponding volatility.

I expect a second test of minor $270 resistance area soon.

I have the impression $280 is still on deck during the next two weeks up to Q3 global delivery numer reporting beginning of October.