Ugh. Another Model S fire - 2013-11-06

[Mario Kadastik]

Well if my PhD in particle physics and participation in the discovery of the Higgs particle (for which the ohysics Nobel was given this year) are not credentials enough (and a simple google will confirm them). Then how about you just take a random Poisson probability calculator on the interwebs and do the simple math. Most take two numbers: expected events, observed events and give you the probability of that occuring as well as that or less and that or more. Expecting one fire and observing three is a 6% event and >=3 is 8%. Expecting 5 events (as in 5 per 100M miles driven) and seeing three or less is 26.5% probability.

in statistics it's evidence at 3 sigma or ca 99% exclusion. If an event is less than 5% likely we call 95% exclusion limit. Neither case I highlighted gets even close to 3 sigma and are both excluded as significant at 95% confidence level.

 

[jomo25]

Isn't that ironic? Telsa offers help with a problem they can't even solve themselves. It's called hubris and it will destroy this company if Musk doesn't get it under control.

I didn't realize that the Boeing batteries were being impaled by large metallic objects at freeway speeds when they ignited. My apologies to the Boeing folks.

 

[flybob08]

Just an informed consent

 

[wcalvin]

Sure be nice if the air suspension remained on High rather than going down when over 20 mph. An easy change to make in the software but also lots of MS's without air.

 

[Todd Burch]

Interestingly, this happened in my local area today.

http://www.wavy.com/news/local/chesapeake/vehicle-fire-closes-i-64-in-chesapeake

By the way...it's not a Tesla. (Shock!).

 

[neroden]

Simple solution: deletion of the lowest air suspension setting altogether in the next software update
Over-and-above solution: recall and replacement of the front air dam with a cow catcher

:biggrin: I always wanted a car which was a bit more like a train.

 

[BillHamp]

I didn't realize that the Boeing batteries were being impaled by large metallic objects at freeway speeds when they ignited. My apologies to the Boeing folks.

The point is that Boeing had fires and Musk, in his hubris, offered to "help." It was a publicity stunt that is hilarious now that he is facing battery fires. Maybe Boeing can offer their solution to Musk considering they have actually addressed the problem.

 

[JRP3]

Assuming that the 2 road debris impact events took place at the front of the pack it would seem a quick fix would be a steel plate of an "L" shape that covered the vertical leading face of the pack and extended back a foot or two would do the trick. Might also be worth raising the highway ride height an inch or so. Unfortunately as some have pointed out the actual statistics, whatever they may be, are irrelevant, perception is reality. Tesla needs to do something to show they are being proactive about this.

 

[neroden]

I think making air suspension lowering "optional" at highway speed would be a great feature to add. Clearly MS doesn't have much ground clearance on "low". Interesting to know if the car would've cleared this debris on "standard" setting. I'm thinking "yes"

Count me as someone else who would like this feature just for winter weather. It would be nice to be able to just leave the suspension up when the road is covered with big snowballs.

 

[Shumdit]

This is also a tow hook and since they are often left on tow trucks flat beds after a car has been dropped off this might have been what was run over since they can come loose since a chain is run through them and is then attached to the winch cable.

 

[jerry33]

So if you get into an accident and the car dies or all the systems stop working do the door locks automatically unlock?, it sure would suck to be locked in the car with no power.

There are manual overrides for both the front and rear doors. No electricity required.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

The point is that Boeing had fires and Musk, in his hubris, offered to "help." It was a publicity stunt that is hilarious now that he is facing battery fires. Maybe Boeing can offer their solution to Musk considering they have actually addressed the problem.

Boeing's battery's spontaneously caught fire without any external triggering event. Every single Tesla fire was caused by a collision with another object that ruptured the battery enclosure.

 

[JRP3]

The point is that Boeing had fires and Musk, in his hubris, offered to "help." It was a publicity stunt that is hilarious now that he is facing battery fires. Maybe Boeing can offer their solution to Musk considering they have actually addressed the problem.

Actually Boeing just threw everything at the problem, including the kitchen sink, because they never seemed to understand the real problem, which was quite obviously repeated over charging of their cells. They sort of stumbled upon a fix by lowering their charge termination voltage along with everything else they did, which was mostly unnecessary. I did see the humor in your initial suggestion, but unlike Musk Boeing has no real help to offer.

 

[neroden]

The point is that Boeing had fires and Musk, in his hubris, offered to "help." It was a publicity stunt that is hilarious now that he is facing battery fires. Maybe Boeing can offer their solution to Musk considering they have actually addressed the problem.

Their solution was, if I remember correctly (and I do, after checking Wikpedia), to use compartmentalized batteries rather than one giant lump, so as to prevent any battery fires from spreading to the rest of the airplane. This is what Tesla is already doing, and it works.

- - - Updated - - -

Actually Boeing just threw everything at the problem, including the kitchen sink, because they never seemed to understand the real problem, which was quite obviously repeated over charging of their cells. They sort of stumbled upon a fix by lowering their charge termination voltage along with everything else they did, which was mostly unnecessary.

Ah, I hadn't heard that part. Thanks.

 

[RobotGrease]

Assuming that the 2 road debris impact events took place at the front of the pack it would seem a quick fix would be a steel plate of an "L" shape that covered the vertical leading face of the pack and extended back a foot or two would do the trick. Might also be worth raising the highway ride height an inch or so. Unfortunately as some have pointed out the actual statistics, whatever they may be, are irrelevant, perception is reality. Tesla needs to do something to show they are being proactive about this.

The other issue is that any of the solutions we have suggested here will most likely adversely affect the cars range due to mass or drag. If the solution is a stronger but equally light protective plate, costs will go up.

 

[jerry33]

I'll grant the Model S is capable of long distance trips, but I don't think its percentage of highway miles is going to be that dramatically different since the bulk of miles driven aren't on long distance trips.

FWIW, 25% of my miles are long distance trip miles. A majority is urban, but a significant percentage isn't.

 

[Todd Burch]

Assuming that the 2 road debris impact events took place at the front of the pack it would seem a quick fix would be a steel plate of an "L" shape that covered the vertical leading face of the pack and extended back a foot or two would do the trick. Might also be worth raising the highway ride height an inch or so. Unfortunately as some have pointed out the actual statistics, whatever they may be, are irrelevant, perception is reality. Tesla needs to do something to show they are being proactive about this.

This is the best proposed solution i've heard yet.

1. Raise the highway suspension height a little bit.

2. Clearly the majority of plating needs to be up front. The armored plating could actually be tapered, so that it becomes thinner the further back you go. Nobody's going to be driving 70 mph backward. Concentrate the thickest plating up front, and taper off. That could even result in a REDUCTION in weight of the car, despite stronger protection in the areas that matter.

 

[neroden]

Nobody's going to be driving 70 mph backward.

Now you're just giving people ideas. Someone is going to go do that at the track just because. :wink:

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Unfortunately as some have pointed out the actual statistics, whatever they may be, are irrelevant, perception is reality. Tesla needs to do something to show they are being proactive about this.

+100

Remember the Ford Pinto? After all was said and done, it was found to be as safe as any other gasoline vehicle produced at the time. But by the time that was determined, the public perception had sealed the Pinto's coffin. This is the reason why Tesla issues statements after each fire and makes an effort to determine the cause. However, now the NTSB will be getting involved with the latest fire:

Feds review third Tesla fire as shares fall again

 

[BillHamp]

Mario did show his math. Math isn't all numbers; he explained the proper methods of statistical analysis, and the 3 Tesla fires are not statistically meaningful.

I was brought up by a statistician. Mario's right; you, Mr. Hamp, are simply wrong.

Demonstrate it. Stop saying it and demonstrate it. Neither you nor Mario has offered anything more than hand waving. Until you provide a full analysis, I'm not interested in your efforts to dismiss the problem through vagary. What is more, the problem is more than just statistical, as I have said, it is a probablem of perception. Tesla is getting a bad rep and needs to fix that.