"Unboxed" Gen 3 manufacturing Process

[UkNorthampton]

Paint is another area where a new tool will need to be invented, But that is probably just panels riding though a paint shop on carts, perhaps with a visual AI based check on paint quality and some automated correction/improvement process if needed.

The possibility of vertically stacking painting in multiple colors at the same time was something I mentioned previously.

The add building new tanks at the south end of Austin as part of the new extension, these could be for paint.

I think some kind of composite with dye in it seems a possibility.

From memory - BMW i3 - Sandy Munro liked it. Less likely recycled carbon fibre (cheaper/weaker than virgin carbon fibre, but probably not plentiful - or is it?) -

Perhaps some alternative advanced composite?

 

[MC3OZ]

I've been giving some thought lately as to what's going on with TSLA and piecing together from the information I'm getting.

So, a while back, a close buddy of mine worked at one of Tesla's suppliers and he/she got into TSLA after seeing the orders that TSLA was placing with them.

He/she has left the company since, but from talks that he/she got with former co-workers, the order amount has not changed.

This led me to conclude a few things:
1. I agree with Elon and the board on price reduction because Tesla is still in its development phase. If it cuts production, it'd mean that it's going to take longer for them to achieve the economy of scale that they are seeking. Right now, the overall return to scale is still positive. Meaning that the further they go, the lower the average cost. This would be vital in term of market share once the market has little to no option than shift to EV as deadline looms. Yes, there's totally a risk where somehow legacy automakers find their way to "convince" the government to give them more time. But shifting to EV is inevitable. It's not a matter of if, but rather when.

2. This is a big ASSUMPTION, but stay with me for a bit. Given the "hearsay" information that I was given, the fact that Tesla has not altered the amount of orders they are placing with their suppliers, leads me to believe one thing... that another model is coming. Tesla has hinted on Investor Day that there's another "van" vehicle in the line, even though they never talked about it anywhere else. So far, we have always been given information and potential dates for the 25k model. The production methodology and processes have been discussed on Investor Day as well, but not this "van" vehicle. I think this is on purpose.
Tesla has ALWAYS made 2 models out of the same platform with the exception of the Roadster and the Semi. S/X shares one. 3/Y share another, and CT is, IMO, going to share its platform with another vehicle.

And as Tesla irons out the kinks and bumps on CT ramp and build extra production lines, I believe they are going to announce this vehicle in a pure surprise fashion. It is going to be something like "oh... btw, we are announcing this new vehicle now that the ramp is over... and it starts shipping next quarter, orders starts today" kinda thing. People has put too much spotlight on Tesla and I think it and Elon has learned a thing or two about not oversharing unless he has to.

Tesla hasn't said that Gen3 will be a single model everything I have seen implies at least 2 Models and build a van via the unboxed process is a fairly logical thing to do.

Drew recently said (something like) the 4680 ramp is ahead of the Cybertruck ramp and Tesla aims to keep it that way for Cybertruck and future vehicles.
To me this implies that all future GEn3 vehicles will use 4680s and may support:- https://www.tesla.com/powershare?darkMode=true

Tesla vehicles* equipped with Powershare technology have onboard electronics that unlock your battery’s ability to provide power whenever you need it, wherever you are. Whether you need to power a construction site, pre-game tailgate, another electric vehicle or even your home during an outage, your Tesla vehicle with Powershare has you covered.

Cybertruck is currently the only vehicle that supports Powershare, but IMO most Gen3 vehicles will used 4680s and support Powershare. In particular, Powershare makes sense for a "van".

Using 4680 for new vehicles means that the 4680 ramp needs to keep pace with the vehicle ramp, but both aspects are controlled by Tesla which aids in synchronising ramps.

For the existing vehicle types, Model 3/Y, Model S/X, Semi there are other cell types they can use which are supplied by 3rd parties. Many of these vehicles are mostly ramped, and cell supplies are locked in for current production levels.

Tesla is adding in house production of CATL LFP packs which can be used on Model 3/Y and Megapack, it makes sense to use a form factor which fits into existing designs rather than 4680 LFP.

Using 4680 for Model Y might be simply proving that Tesla can do that if/when it makes sense.

 

[MC3OZ]

The last para contains the words “high-speed”, right next to “ultra-automated”.
I’m not letting go of the dream of 6 second cadence, yet.
The logic:
20 seconds is too fast for humans, they would burn out, you lose the game to high staff turnover. High-speed necessitates zero-human. If you start with a zero-human premise, why settle for 20 second cadence when you can triple your capital utilisation with 6 second? And it solves the problem of 20m per year output in 2030 in the same swoop.

Optimus doesn’t feel right as the answer to 20 seconds. The design philosophy for bot v1 is one for one human to bot swappability, both ways. It would be another “bet the farm” for Musk, surely a place to avoid. Optimus isn’t certain enough for the timeline.

The alternative to higher speed is multiple parallel processes. I think Elon made the comment about speed when considering a single line prior to the invention of the "unboxed' process.

I do agree that Optimus moving it's arms fast may create balance issues which in turn cause a slower operation or a lack of precision. We could try throwing a ball moving only our arm, normally throwing a ball involves some weight transfer which in turn impacts on balance.

I suggested robots-on-wheels as a superior factory solution to Optimus above for multiple reasons.

But any process could follow this development path -> Human -> Optimus -> Cart Robot.

Or the path could simply be -> High Speed Specialised Machine.

One we get into vehicle assembly and later phases "High Speed Specialised Machine" might be the best path, for earlier phases "Human -> Optimus -> Cart Robot" might be the best path.

Initially risk can be lowered via lower levels of automation, that doesn't rule out a path to higher levels of automation.

"High Speed Specialised Machine" - has to work from day 1, risk can be lowered by early development lots of testing and focusing on a few critical areas, dumbing down the rest of the process allows more focus on the key areas.

Already plenty of competition is emerging in the $20K-$25K price bracket, IMO Gen3 is more about "value for money" than "low price".

 

[FreqFlyer]

Paint is another area where a new tool will need to be invented, But that is probably just panels riding though a paint shop on carts, perhaps with a visual AI based check on paint quality and some automated correction/improvement process if needed.

The possibility of vertically stacking painting in multiple colors at the same time was something I mentioned previously.

The add building new tanks at the south end of Austin as part of the new extension, these could be for paint.

So why have paint?

Mainly due to consumer preference especially when making perhaps up to 10-15 million Gen3 cars per year.

If the panel material can be used unpainted, that also means that only the customer facing side needs to be painted,

If panel are sometimes painted, Tesla needs to ensure they are not scratched during the installation process.

Or follow the now defunct Saturn production and use molded color plastic panels.

 

[mongo]

Or follow the now defunct Saturn production and use molded color plastic panels.

If you thought people complained about panel gaps before...
Not that I ever noticed, and mine looked great until it got rear ended and totalled.

 

[Buckminster]

Looks different, wrinkle in the shirt?

 

[Buckminster]

Pretty sure the original is correct based on this side angle.

 

[Buckminster]

So could these be the sides? Gigacast sides which not only become wired up, probably finished sides but also provide much of the crash structure.

 

[MC3OZ]

Investor Engineering Discussions

But Tesla doesn't do that. I take a wild guess and state that Tesla's motor, what with a larger cross-sectional surface area to conductor area, doesn't have issues at high RPMs - and therefore doesn't need the extra expense, losses, and weight of a no-kidding gear shifting transmission. A big...

teslamotorsclub.com

This post links an interesting video on unboxed.

 

[MC3OZ]

So could these be the sides? Gigacast sides which not only become wired up, probably finished sides but also provide much of the crash structure.

One interesting question for unboxed is where the wires run.

There are 3 alternatives:-

1. Floor
2. Sides
3. Roof

I think Tesla will be aiming for minimal cable lengths and ease of connection...

I think the roof might need longer cables?

Sides more chance of the cable being damaged in a collision?

I tend to favour the floor, in grooves under the carpets, easy to connect, (before the sides go on) easy to access.

 

[aronth5]

One interesting question for unboxed is where the wires run.

There are 3 alternatives:-

1. Floor
2. Sides
3. Roof

I think Tesla will be aiming for minimal cable lengths and ease of connection...

I think the roof might need longer cables?

Sides more chance of the cable being damaged in a collision?

I tend to favour the floor, in grooves under the carpets, easy to connect, (before the sides go on) easy to access.

If Tesla implements the new 48 volt architecture the amount of wiring is significantly reduced with a network like topology. For example music now shares the wired network with data. I'm sure there are others who could explain this in detail. I'm purely speculating but wouldn't this allow for each box unit to keep all wires to the hub with minimal connection(s) needed to other box units?

 

[MC3OZ]

If Tesla implements the new 48 volt architecture the amount of wiring is significantly reduced with a network like topology. For example music now shares the wired network with data. I'm sure there are others who could explain this in detail. I'm purely speculating but wouldn't this allow for each box unit to keep all wires to the hub with minimal connection(s) needed to other box units?

Yes, that is what I expect...

Mostly it is a matter of connecting up the primary controllers, any other wires probably run from those controllers within a box component..

I imagine if may be possible to click the wires together with some kind of snap fit when joining boxes.

Those wires that join the boxes still need to run somewhere, I would not imbed them in a component in a way in which they couldn't easily be removed, it is best if Tesla service can access/replace the wires and connections after the car is built..

 

[mongo]

Yes, that is what I expect...

Mostly it is a matter of connecting up the primary controllers, any other wires probably run from those controllers within a box component..

I imagine if may be possible to click the wires together with some kind of snap fit when joining boxes.

Those wires that join the boxes still need to run somewhere, I would not imbed them in a component in a way in which they couldn't easily be removed, it is best if Tesla service can access/replace the wires and connections after the car is built..

(Per your earlier post) The roof is only a cross car beam or two, plus glass.
Cybertruck has basically 4 main harness connections at the corners. Since the doors have wiring (and their own connectors), I'd expect the sides to have the harnesses.

 

[MC3OZ]

(Per your earlier post) The roof is only a cross car beam or two, plus glass.

I'm not 100% assuming that the roof is glass for Gen3.

But I would not run the cables in the roof regardless, "ConnectingTheDots" suggested that option.

He had the cables inside a moulded roof, that is fine unless replacement is required. car rollovers should be rare...

I would use carbon-fibre for the Roadster and plastic for the bottom portion of the sides/front/rear on Gen3, otherwise probably regular stamped metal panels.

Certainly unboxed doesn't have to have a glass roof...

I am not sure how a glass roof compares to metal on a cost/weight basis...

In hot climates a glass roof is a bit of mixed blessing.

I would not be surprised if the Gen3 has a glass roof, but I also would not be surprised if it didn't have one.

I can see the sides making sense, my only issue was access for replacement if that is necessary.

 

[Buckminster]

View attachment 1041067
This is it. Elon is back in the building. Very happy that my worries were proven wrong. Love it.