Understanding The Decline In Tesla’s FSD Take Rate

On August 31st, 2021, “Troy Teslike” tweeted data from his long running survey of thousands of Tesla vehicle buyers, showing a low take rate for FSD, Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” software add-on offered since late 2016. For Q2 2021, that survey shows a worldwide FSD take rate of only 11% across all Tesla models, compared to a high of 46% in Q2 2019. Rather than simply assuming this represents a major loss of confidence in FSD, it is worth examining the data and understanding the factors that led to this decline.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1432745255275835392

First, let’s look at the Q2 2019 spike in FSD take rate. In the span of two quarters, the take rate for the Model S rose from 33% to 81%, and for the Model 3, it rose from 15% to 46%.This can be explained by changes to Tesla’s self-driving packages and reduced pricing. Before February 28th, 2019 (late Q1 2019), Tesla offered Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) and FSD. EAP contained a less-polished version of all current Autopilot features, namely autosteer and auto cruise control, and some of today’s FSD features, including auto lane changes, Navigate on Autopilot, and Summon. FSD, at the time, offered no additional, working features, only the promise that Tesla would later avail buyers of autonomy features as the software improved. It stands to reason that, with no working features, FSD would have had a low take rate.  Then, on February 28th, 2019, Tesla stopped selling EAP, introduced a more basic Autopilot package priced at $3000, and began requiring buyers to purchase FSD for features formerly in EAP.  FSD, now priced at $5000, became a useful addition to the vehicle.

In the same Tesla announcement on that day, in addition to the FSD package receiving new features, Tesla offered sale prices on Autopilot and FSD for new vehicles. This was great for new car buyers and contributed to the spike in FSD take rates, but it had the potential to instantly decrease the resale value of existing owners’ vehicles. In response to backlash from existing owners, Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla would offer a discount on Autopilot and FSD for existing owners:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1101724210878128128

A table shown to Tesla’s customers at the time (and shared by Troy Teslike) clarifies the statement Elon made:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1107379410552979457

This substantial deal was a large motivator for many Tesla owners to purchase Autopilot and FSD at a large discount, and for the portion who had previously ordered and received vehicles with EAP, their vehicles were automatically upgraded to FSD at no additional cost. Given the discounts and package changes, the Q2 2019 spike in FSD purchases is understandable.

On a number of occasions over the years, Elon Musk has put forth FSD timelines that have proven to be overly optimistic. Without Elon’s high level of optimism, Tesla and SpaceX would almost certainly not be where they are today. At the same time, this has created unmet expectations among a number of potential FSD adopters. It is understandable that some pessimism surrounding FSD would have contributed to the decline in take rate following Q2 2019.

However, there are less concerning and more practical reasons as to why the take rate has tanked so much in the past two years. Price has been a key factor. Since Q2 2019, the price for FSD has gradually increased, but ultimately, it appears that the larger price difference between Autopilot and FSD, as well as the decrease in the average selling price of Tesla vehicles have been the primary causes of the take rate decline.

To give perspective on the overall price changes for FSD and Autopilot, a graph is provided below showing the FSD, Autopilot, and Enhanced Autopilot price changes over the past several years, along with a graph from Troy Teslike showing the Model S/X, Model 3, and Model Y FSD take rates in North America:

While the take rates have fluctuated a great deal, the combined price of FSD and Autopilot has surprisingly not fluctuated more than $2,000 in the past five years, aside from the early 2019 discounts. Arguably, the total price of FSD and Autopilot has been less significant than the price difference between FSD and Autopilot.

In Q4 2019, Tesla changed the price of Autopilot to $0, meaning its features (traffic aware cruise control and autosteer) were now included with each vehicle. At the time, FSD was priced at $7,000, and the combined cost of FSD and Autopilot dropped by $2,000.  However, this also changed the cost difference between FSD and EAP or Autopilot from $3,000 to $7,000. For many Tesla owners, Autopilot is quite useful and is considered an essential add-on, so when it had a price tag, it was relatively easy for buyers to justify spending $3,000 or $5,000 on it. Then, an additional $3,000 for FSD was not too hard to justify.

However, once Autopilot became standard on all Tesla vehicles, it became much harder to justify an additional $7,000 add-on for features that were considered less essential.  Since then, the price of FSD has further increased from $7,000 to $10,000, meaning there’s now a cost difference of $10,000 between Autopilot and FSD.  This is likely a key reason as to why the take rates for FSD have fallen so significantly.

In addition, it should be noted that the take rate for FSD with Model S/X vehicles has fallen significantly less compared to the Model 3/Y. This can be attributed to the Model 3/Y targeting a more price sensitive demographic. It is much easier to justify purchasing a $10,000 add-on for an $80,000+ vehicle than it is for a $40,000+ vehicle. Of course, Tesla’s sales growth in recent years has come from the Model 3/Y, thus lowering the average sale price.

Further, the global take rates for FSD have been much lower than for North America, as seen in this graph provided by Troy Teslike:

Troy states that “the FSD take rate is very low in China and APAC and they now represent a larger portion of Tesla’s global deliveries which reduces the global take rate.”  Tesla has been delivering increasing numbers in China and Europe. Unfortunately, Autopilot has been crippled in Europe for regulatory reasons, and FSD development has primarily taken place on U.S. roads. All, or virtually all, of the impressive, recent “FSD Beta” YouTube videos have been on North American roads. It is no wonder that take rates are lower overseas.

One might ask whether Tesla should take any steps to increase FSD uptake.

In fact, Tesla has started offering a reasonably affordable $199 a month subscription plan for FSD, allowing owners to try it out for just one month.  In addition, Tesla’s impressive efforts in 3D vision and labeling, neural networks, and accelerated training, as demonstrated at AI Day recently, have shown that the product will speak for itself once “FSD Beta” is polished enough to be released to the public.

The drop in FSD take rate is not as alarming as it might appear. Considering the early 2019 discounts, the increases in FSD marginal cost versus Autopilot, price sensitivity combined with declines in the average sale price of Tesla vehicles, and Autopilot/FSD performance lacking overseas, the relatively low take rate is understandable. It seems likely to trend upward soon.

 

[DaveG_NJ]

In October 2020 Elon claimed FSD will be finished by end of 2020, and he'll have a fleet of robo-taxis on the road by the end of 2020 (so 2-3 months later).

This, plus the exhortation that it was SO close! And a public beta was going out! And the price was going up from $8K to $10 in a week! Get it before it's too late!

I fell for it. Easily the worst financial decision/purchase of my life. Now at least buyers have a year of public beta experience - empirical evidence that it's only gotten incrementally better, but still not ready. And they can try it for $199/mon if they want to dip their toe in the water. I would be shocked to learn that the take rate at $10K is >0% now, but suckers are born every day.

 

[Sporty]

This, plus the exhortation that it was SO close! And a public beta was going out! And the price was going up from $8K to $10 in a week! Get it before it's too late!

I fell for it. Easily the worst financial decision/purchase of my life. Now at least buyers have a year of public beta experience - empirical evidence that it's only gotten incrementally better, but still not ready. And they can try it for $199/mon if they want to dip their toe in the water. I would be shocked to learn that the take rate at $10K is >0% now, but suckers are born every day.

The result is hard to call incrementally better. I like the stop light ‘ding’ and a bunch of stuff did get smoother, but it now slams on the breaks for no reason in light to no traffic cases making any real use of it unusable. And it’s been that way for a long time now. Since fsd-beta started there’s been no real updates to the feature anymore.

 

[whitex]

So it kinda made sense with AP2.0's capabilities and setup, that it should be able to. It can already see more than a human can, at all angles at all times, so why couldn't it? Look at how much processing power it has! It has all the inputs, why couldn't it?

Well, for one it had no redundancies in computing or actuation. Any half competent engineer would point out that cannot possibly be safe to use. Sure, humans can drive with only 2 cameras, 2 microphones, a crude accelerometer, and limited redundancy, but that took millions of years of evolution.

You know, back in 2012 I was pretty sure, given the building blocks, that a legitimate electric fighter jet wouldn't be too far off. I really still do want to see an electric F-16.

How many of those electric F-16's did you sell though (i.e. took people's money)? I think you are confusing being a visionary and a dreamer with conning people out of money by selling them something you know will never materialize on the product you sold. Elon selling a car as full self driving capable is similar to Intel selling you a baggy of silicon sand for $1,000 telling you it is capable of being an ultra high end processor which will beat all the processors on the market today. Just like in Elon's example, Intel is in fact working on the next gen processor, and just like in Elon's example, they will release more and more capable products, except just like in Elon's example, your baggy of silicon is never going to be that product.

 

[FalconFour]

I don't feel like we're going to find common ground on this, but let's just say, we share very different perceptions of the world. Elon didn't sell a bag of silicon sand saying it could be a processor (though it literally never could, without me having a fab house of my own). He sold a computer that could, in theory, be capable of self-driving once the software was developed - which could be delivered over-the-air (as has been demonstrated). In other words, no expectation of me doing anything except waiting. And maybe helping test and improve what does come along.

I'm an optimist, you're a pessimist on this... for me, that means I expect it to be here soon and will be mildly disappointed by the delays along the way; for you that means you're mildly disappointed that people are "falling for it" but would be surprised when it does get here, I guess.

 

[whitex]

I don't feel like we're going to find common ground on this, but let's just say, we share very different perceptions of the world. Elon didn't sell a bag of silicon sand saying it could be a processor (though it literally never could, without me having a fab house of my own). He sold a computer that could, in theory, be capable of self-driving once the software was developed - which could be delivered over-the-air (as has been demonstrated). In other words, no expectation of me doing anything except waiting. And maybe helping test and improve what does come along.

I'm an optimist, you're a pessimist on this... for me, that means I expect it to be here soon and will be mildly disappointed by the delays along the way; for you that means you're mildly disappointed that people are "falling for it" but would be surprised when it does get here, I guess.

So, just so that I am clear on your position as an optimist, do you honestly believe that people who purchased FSD with AP2.0 in 2016 will one day get an over-the-air update which will allow them to summon their car from New York to Los Angeles, and drive the owners as they sleep on the back seat, as promised by Elon at the time? If, yes, we definitely have to agree to disagree. Also, follow up question - do you think Full Self Driving as sold in 2016 will happen before the cars on which it was sold in 2016 will reach their end of life?

 

[FalconFour]

So, just so that I am clear on your position as an optimist, do you honestly believe that people who purchased FSD with AP2.0 in 2016 will one day get an over-the-air update which will allow them to summon their car from New York to Los Angeles, and drive the owners as they sleep on the back seat, as promised by Elon at the time? If, yes, we definitely have to agree to disagree. Also, follow up question - do you think Full Self Driving as sold in 2016 will happen before the cars on which it was sold in 2016 will reach their end of life?

That was not in the sales pitch; that was Elon's Twitter. Jesus, you're moving the goalposts to the surface of the moon and expecting a legitimate, not hostile response?

YES. I EXPECT WHAT THEY WERE SOLD. They were not sold "summon their car from LA to New York", no matter what Tweets you dig up. Twitter is not the sales page for FSD.

Because that person with AP2.0 can, as promised, get their car fitted with HW3 for free and, if they want (and they will), MCU2 (for an extra cost) as well.

I friggin' hate trying to reason with chronic pessimists that fight, claw, scratch, and scream to be right in how much they hate/disbelieve/want to dunk on something.

 

[whitex]

That was not in the sales pitch; that was Elon's Twitter. Jesus, you're moving the goalposts to the surface of the moon and expecting a legitimate, not hostile response?

YES. I EXPECT WHAT THEY WERE SOLD. They were not sold "summon their car from LA to New York", no matter what Tweets you dig up. Twitter is not the sales page for FSD.

Because that person with AP2.0 can, as promised, get their car fitted with HW3 for free and, if they want (and they will), MCU2 (for an extra cost) as well.

I friggin' hate trying to reason with chronic pessimists that fight, claw, scratch, and scream to be right in how much they hate/disbelieve/want to dunk on something.

Ok, let's assume Elon's twitter is complete BS hype and anyone who buys Tesla based on those purchases deserves what they get (or don't get). Do you think Tesla will deliver what was in the Design Studio (the page where you order your car) shown below, at no extra cost to the end user, before the car's 10th birthday? Let's assume retrofits are allowed (in my Intel analogy it would be equivalent to exchanging the baggy of sand for a chip at no cost).

If you truly believe all of the above will be delivered, are you a betting person?

 

[Dan D.]

That was not in the sales pitch; that was Elon's Twitter. Jesus, you're moving the goalposts to the surface of the moon and expecting a legitimate, not hostile response?

YES. I EXPECT WHAT THEY WERE SOLD. They were not sold "summon their car from LA to New York", no matter what Tweets you dig up. Twitter is not the sales page for FSD.

Because that person with AP2.0 can, as promised, get their car fitted with HW3 for free and, if they want (and they will), MCU2 (for an extra cost) as well.

I friggin' hate trying to reason with chronic pessimists that fight, claw, scratch, and scream to be right in how much they hate/disbelieve/want to dunk on something.

The lofty expectations about Summon are also on Tesla's blog: https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/blog/summon-your-tesla-your-phone

That blog links to a page that lets you schedule a Test Drive. Certainly seems like a sales pitch to me. The key word I highlighted for Summon going and getting you, is "Eventually". Gives no time promise, but does suggest it is the plan.

January 10, 2016
Schedule Test Drive Experience Autopilot today
Last Fall, Tesla Version 7.0 software introduced a range of new Autopilot active safety and convenience features to give you more confidence behind the wheel, increase your safety on the road, and make highway driving more enjoyable. The release of Tesla Version 7.1 software continues our improvements to self-driving technology. This release expands Autopilot functionality and introduces the first iteration of Summon.

Using Summon, once you arrive home and exit Model S or Model X, you can prompt it to do the rest: open your garage door, enter your garage, park itself, and shut down. In the morning, you wake up, walk out the front door, and summon your car. It will open the garage door and come to greet you. More broadly, Summon also eliminates the burden of having to squeeze in and out of tight parking spots. During this Beta stage of Summon, we would like customers to become familiar with it on private property. Eventually, your Tesla will be able to drive anywhere across the country to meet you, charging itself along the way. It will sync with your calendar to know exactly when to arrive.

 

[FalconFour]

Yeah, Summon has definitely been a crock of . The only damages I've ever had to my car were from Summon malfunctioning unexpectedly, and it not responding to releasing the button in time. So, yeah that's a bit of sour grapes. Just spent another $3500 getting the driver's side of my car all fixed up from the different scratches and gouges Summon gave me. Dumb Summon should be available to everyone and just go in a straight line - whenever it makes a steering change, it's a bad decision (with sometimes car-scraping consequences). Smart Summon, well, ... if the app connected reliably, it'd be somewhat useful at least.

That screenshot of an early FSD checkbox is an awful, uh... awful friggin' lofty set of promises, though, truly bordering on the misleading. At that time, they had _NONE_ of this stuff written - let alone simply waiting for regulatory approval. So that's definitely sketchy by my watch too. AP1 was Mobileye, right? Yeesh, they weren't even rolling their own yet. Maybe we can even point the finger at Mobileye for selling Tesla a bucket of promises... I remember the break-up wasn't exactly a kind one.

But for the majority of these features' existence (since, what, 2017-2021 now?), those promises were dialed back down to reality. I bought it under the assumption that it was selling future promises, and the ability to be there as they're created. That's what I bought into, and that's why I want FSD beta so bad my blood itches. I have always wanted to have the crappy half-baked product, and be there to watch it develop. I think a lot of people did.

 

[whitex]

That screenshot of an early FSD checkbox is an awful, uh... awful friggin' lofty set of promises, though, truly bordering on the misleading. At that time, they had _NONE_ of this stuff written - let alone simply waiting for regulatory approval. So that's definitely sketchy by my watch too. AP1 was Mobileye, right? Yeesh, they weren't even rolling their own yet. Maybe we can even point the finger at Mobileye for selling Tesla a bucket of promises... I remember the break-up wasn't exactly a kind one.

Actually, Full Self Driving was only advertised after Tesla breakup with MobileEye, so not based on MobileEye promises of any kind. FSD was all pure Elon pipedream here, and the screen shot came from the order page (not Elon's Twitter) from when I ordered one of my cars in Dec 2016.

But for the majority of these features' existence (since, what, 2017-2021 now?), those promises were dialed back down to reality. I bought it under the assumption that it was selling future promises, and the ability to be there as they're created. That's what I bought into, and that's why I want FSD beta so bad my blood itches. I have always wanted to have the crappy half-baked product, and be there to watch it develop. I think a lot of people did.

I don't know when you bought FSD, but the FSD promises didn't get brought back to reality until mid 2019 IIRC, by moving a bunch of features from EAP to FSD and removing actual full self driving capabilities from FSD. Tesla FSD suddenly went from 0% to 80% complete as far as listed features, without writing a single line of code - genius, eh? Then Tesla removed any mention of the old FSD features from their website, just like they removed the information whether or not your free supercharging is transferable - I'm sure they are just hoping customers forget what they paid for.

 

[Microterf]

Yeah, Summon has definitely been a crock of . The only damages I've ever had to my car were from Summon malfunctioning unexpectedly, and it not responding to releasing the button in time. So, yeah that's a bit of sour grapes. Just spent another $3500 getting the driver's side of my car all fixed up from the different scratches and gouges Summon gave me. Dumb Summon should be available to everyone and just go in a straight line - whenever it makes a steering change, it's a bad decision (with sometimes car-scraping consequences). Smart Summon, well, ... if the app connected reliably, it'd be somewhat useful at least.

That screenshot of an early FSD checkbox is an awful, uh... awful friggin' lofty set of promises, though, truly bordering on the misleading. At that time, they had _NONE_ of this stuff written - let alone simply waiting for regulatory approval. So that's definitely sketchy by my watch too. AP1 was Mobileye, right? Yeesh, they weren't even rolling their own yet. Maybe we can even point the finger at Mobileye for selling Tesla a bucket of promises... I remember the break-up wasn't exactly a kind one.

But for the majority of these features' existence (since, what, 2017-2021 now?), those promises were dialed back down to reality. I bought it under the assumption that it was selling future promises, and the ability to be there as they're created. That's what I bought into, and that's why I want FSD beta so bad my blood itches. I have always wanted to have the crappy half-baked product, and be there to watch it develop. I think a lot of people did.

I'm in the same boat. I bought FSD because I want to access the features as soon as humanly possible., I'll do submit to whatever requirements they have for users to gain access (camera monitoring, etc) and ensure that I'm paying attention. What is unacceptable is that they have this software out for almost a year now, with the initial goal to have it to everyone within 2 months.

The steps they are taking now are correct IMO, but given the track record, I have a hard time believing it will come to fruition as planned. I currently have a score of 100, with 582 Miles. Based on what Elon tweeted, if my score doesn't go down, I should have it on my car this time next week. I will be shocked if that turns out to be true.

 

[nvx1977]

Ok, let's assume Elon's twitter is complete BS hype and anyone who buys Tesla based on those purchases deserves what they get (or don't get). Do you think Tesla will deliver what was in the Design Studio (the page where you order your car) shown below, at no extra cost to the end user, before the car's 10th birthday? Let's assume retrofits are allowed (in my Intel analogy it would be equivalent to exchanging the baggy of sand for a chip at no cost).
View attachment 717666
If you truly believe all of the above will be delivered, are you a betting person?

It's great that people save the historical stuff. I wanted to break this down to see how much of this is done, ongoing, or scrapped in 2021.

This doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight

While the current production firmware isn't using 8 cameras, I'm pretty sure FSD beta is running on all 8 cameras.

, enabling full self-driving in
almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as
good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and
long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver's seat.

This is the core of FSD, and this is ongoing work to get it there. However, I think it needs to be more than 2x safer than a human before general acceptance. This will take both dev time, beta usage to generate statistics, and regulators using the data to make an informed decision. This is likely a few years out at minimum. My guess: 2 years to get FSD 10x safer than a human, an extra year of usage, and I can't predict what regulators will do. But this would get us to L4. L5 might require a longer march of 9s. But I personally would enjoy the system as L2. I think Tesla will release to the entire fleet while still L2 but at much better performance than today's FSD beta, naturally.

For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even
need to plug in your vehicle.

The "snake" connector seemed like an abandoned idea for a long while. Recently through a Musk tweek hinted it wasn't abandoned, just postponed. So I'll put this one as ongoing but low priority.

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don't say anything, the car
will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if
nothing is on the calendar.

This part describes the user experience of the UI and how it would work when FSD is mature. The implementation of the UI for FSD is trivial, and we'll likely see a lot of this during FSD beta testing.

Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets
(even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and
roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed.

The is the core of FSD. We've seen videos of all of these things working (minus highways, but the code merge is imminent). And of course we've seen examples of interventions/disengagements for these things as well. Feature complete once single stack. Ongoing march of 9s.

When you
arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek
mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to
you.

This is aspirational smart summon and autopark functionality. It currently really really sucks on the old code stack. It seems clear to me that once we switch to the 4D vectorspace model, both of these features will work a LOT better. But they likely will be like everything else: need more ongoing march of 9s to refine.

Please note that Self-Driving functionality is dependent upon extensive software
validation and regulatory approval, which may vary widely by jurisdiction.

A good disclaimer, IMO. I actually think this should be at the top, in bold. Less excuse for customers/media/shorts saying they didn't notice it.

It is not
possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be
available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval.

IMO this is the shadiest (Elon optimism) part of the whole description. Tesla should have put more emphasis on the "extensive software validation" from the preceding text than focus purely on regulatory approval. Both should have been called out again. This part reads like FSD is done and we're just waiting for lawmakers to acknowledge and act. Here's how I would have worded it:

"It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be
available, as the functionality requires more development and testing to achieve desired safety levels that would earn regulatory approval for autonomous driving."

As written, I've put the emphasis on the dev and testing, rather than on the regulators. This should also go to the top and placed in bold.

Please note also that using
a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so
for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be
released next year.

This entire paragraph should have been eliminated, as it implies FSD is robotaxi-ready, which it isn't. While Tesla is definitely working toward this goal, it is way aspirational and also premature to be worrying about people generating revenue from their cars.

Longer term I think all of this will be achieved. It's a valid question whether the earlier FSD purchasers will experience something of a finished product. Many will have moved on to another car I suspect, and I think a lot of people will be justifiably upset that they paid for something that they never got. This might be somewhat acceptable to the really early adopters, as they might just chalk it up to supporting a good cause. But newer buyers will be less accepting of that.

 

[whitex]

This is the core of FSD, and this is ongoing work to get it there. However, I think it needs to be more than 2x safer than a human before general acceptance. This will take both dev time, beta usage to generate statistics, and regulators using the data to make an informed decision. This is likely a few years out at minimum. My guess: 2 years to get FSD 10x safer than a human, an extra year of usage, and I can't predict what regulators will do. But this would get us to L4. L5 might require a longer march of 9s. But I personally would enjoy the system as L2. I think Tesla will release to the entire fleet while still L2 but at much better performance than today's FSD beta, naturally.

There have been L4/5 cars legally driving around in some jurisdictions already. Cruise and Waymo just got approval for commercialization (i.e. charging customers for the driverless rides) in Tesla's backyard (San Francisco) so obviously at least some regulators did approve some L4/5 cars, just not Tesla. I think Elon would have a better chance of being crowned Miss USA than current Tesla FSD passing as L4/5 in like Waymo or Cruise.

Please note that Self-Driving functionality is dependent upon extensive software
validation and regulatory approval, which may vary widely by jurisdiction.

A good disclaimer, IMO. I actually think this should be at the top, in bold. Less excuse for customers/media/shorts saying they didn't notice it.

Strong disagree. It's a misleading BS disclaimer which implies the software is ready or almost ready and only pending validation and regulatory approvals - remember that was 2016 - all they had then was a faked/edited FSD video they used for marketing. Automatic headlights and wipers didn't work on AP2.0 cars until almost a year later. Are you seriously going to tell me they had FSD done, just not validated, and it just took them a year to get regulatory approval for automatic headlights?

Longer term I think all of this will be achieved. It's a valid question whether the earlier FSD purchasers will experience something of a finished product. Many will have moved on to another car I suspect, and I think a lot of people will be justifiably upset that they paid for something that they never got. This might be somewhat acceptable to the really early adopters, as they might just chalk it up to supporting a good cause. But newer buyers will be less accepting of that.

No way Tesla will enable Level 4/5 FSD on all AP2.0 cars with FSD at no cost. Scam is what most would call it. No different than my 691hp P85D which Tesla claims has motors capable of that power but not the rest of the car, which came limited to 463hp by the battery. They might use the same excuse for FSD, the car is mostly capable, just not all of it, so you can't use it. Or they might use the disclaimer that says there is no firm deadline to just wait out the cars. In 100 years, if anyone still kept a 2016 Tesla in drivable condition, they can say they are still working on it and there is no ETA as per the disclaimer.

If Elon wanted donations to a cause, he should have been honest about it - donate x thousands to Tesla, and if Tesla gets to FSD before your car turns into dust, you will get a free over-the-air software update. That would have been an honest approach, instead of a scam he executed instead. By the way, there is a way Tesla could make it right, they could refund everyone who bought the car the full amount plug reasonable interest. I don't mean just FSD price, I mean the whole car, since many might have only bought the car because of FSD. If he really wanted to make a media splash, he could refund based on Tesla stock gain instead of just interest - after all, all those purchases helped Tesla get to where it is today. Now that would make headlines and make plenty of fanboys want to go buy whatever next vaporware he has to sell. $100K got 2500 shares back in 2016 when first FSD's were sold, today that's worth close to $2M - he could use it to prop up his other insane message that every Tesla is car an investment increasing in value as it ages! There would be people who will believe (heck, I remember arguing here with people who so believed every Tesla car with FSD will be worth over $200K no later than by end of 2020).

 

[BigD70]

unsurprising really. The owner profile has changed from early adopter, so less likely to throw 10k at something that probably won't be delivered in the lifetime of a three year lease.
If they still sold EAP I'm sure lots of folks would go for it.
Right now they are being asked to pay $10k to be delivered EAP in terms of what is delivered but much more expensive than EAP.
I have FSD on my car, I'll be replacing it soon and also getting one for my wife. I have no intention of spending $10 per car for something that is still in beta. Heck, even AP is still beta but at least that's included. FSD might be worth money when it doesn't have the beta tag on it, but not before.

Totally Agree. If they sold EAP for a reasonable price I would upgrade to that right away. $10k for FSD is just too steep

 

[DaveG_NJ]

People have very strong feelings about this. I went from a skeptic to an owner/believer and then, coming out of the ether of being a new Tesla owner last October (and Elon's lofty promises), I'm back to being a skeptic again. I think FSD is a fascinating problem to attempt to solve, but ultimately, the program, even with the enormous strides made, will fail. I'm reminded of what someone said about the dogs who can bark the Jingle Bells song - "It's bloody awful and amazing at the same time."

Having used NoA extensively the past year, in the most congested state in the Union, I can see that human drivers and computer drivers cannot co-exist. If all cars were FSD equipped, sure. But humans are random, haphazard and often drive with emotion (their egos). FSD lacks the situational awareness , intelligence or the ability to analyze the context of a situation that raises the hair on the back of our necks - to see when a driver is going to cross multiple lanes, cut into a gap, pass on the right. It won't drop back when the car in front of you is aggressively tailgating the car in front of it. It can't see the traffic jam and brake lights a mile down the interstate. It can only react to what is immediately in front of it.

I think it would be reasonable to offer those of us who paid full price for FSD a pro-rated refund of the price we paid, minus the monthly fee for it during the time we used it. So I paid $8,000 (+ tax) and have used AP/NoA/Summon for 12 months. I would be happy with $8,000 minus $2,400 (12x$199). No harm, no foul. No interest. Not the full price. Fair is fair. Elon gave it his best shot, we went along for the ride, but give people who supported the effort a way out as the subscription people do.

 

[EVNow]

Having used NoA extensively the past year, in the most congested state in the Union, I can see that human drivers and computer drivers cannot co-exist. If all cars were FSD equipped, sure. But humans are random, haphazard and often drive with emotion (their egos). FSD lacks the situational awareness , intelligence or the ability to analyze the context of a situation that raises the hair on the back of our necks - to see when a driver is going to cross multiple lanes, cut into a gap, pass on the right. It won't drop back when the car in front of you is aggressively tailgating the car in front of it. It can't see the traffic jam and brake lights a mile down the interstate. It can only react to what is immediately in front of it.

It can't do X now <> X can never be done.

 

[Zacster]

It can't do X now <> X can never be done.

In some cases it does. Some things are just a mathematical impossibility. And I've already stated maybe here or elsewhere, that this may be one of them. If the cases are infinite no amount of finite programming can solve it, or at least it can't be proven that it can.

 

[nvx1977]

In some cases it does. Some things are just a mathematical impossibility. And I've already stated maybe here or elsewhere, that this may be one of them. If the cases are infinite no amount of finite programming can solve it, or at least it can't be proven that it can.

We have some ways to go before throwing in the towel I think.

 

[Zacster]

We have some ways to go before throwing in the towel I think.

You're not understanding then. It can be impossible to prove that it can be done. We can be infinitely chasing this. Just when you think you've got all the possibilities covered along comes a boulder rolling down the side of a mountain that the car avoids and then crashes into the oncoming train. Hmm, that sounds like a loonie tunes cartoon.

 

[nvx1977]

You're not understanding then. It can be impossible to prove that it can be done. We can be infinitely chasing this. Just when you think you've got all the possibilities covered along comes a boulder rolling down the side of a mountain that the car avoids and then crashes into the oncoming train. Hmm, that sounds like a loonie tunes cartoon.

since it is unknowable if it's possible or not, I still prefer to try. technology does not improve by itself. We have to will it to improve. This is why legacy auto is still selling ICEV with very little incremental improvements for a century.

You're also looking at FSD as if it has an end state. It can very well never cover all edge cases. But it doesn't have to. It just needs to be better than the collective human-driving population. That to me doesn't sound hard to achieve at all. Let's see how much better it can be.