Unveiling on Oct 17th

[Brick_top]

Tesla Vision ?

maybe I was right

https://electrek.co/2016/10/10/tesla-vision-autopilot-autonomous-driving-nvidia-cuda/[url]

edit- oops... already posted

 

[Brick_top]

NVIDIA Shows Fully Pascal-based DRIVE PX 2 - VR World

if this article is right.. if they are using the latest platform its not cheap

The boards are currently being delivered to the automotive customers at a price of $15,000.

But if it is CUDA based maybe they are using a couple of the latest GPUs.

 

[butchmank9]

My guess will be the new battery packs that get more millage.

 

[paulp]

He's perfected the automated charging snake. $4500 option. So auto park your Teslas into the garage and the snake will recharge your car.

Beat that BMW, Chevy, Benz, Mitsu, Ford!

[Elon] ... (drops mike on floor, walks away)....

Snake is a bit yesterday. Fast Wireless charging discovered, to be rolled out to every street in every city 'soon'

 

[googlepeakoil]

Some thoughts...
- Model S convertible? - But would be better to announce it in the spring!
- Roadster v2 - Fastest 0-60 time of any car - < 2.3 seconds - and of course supercharging. Though people will think it'll cause a distraction from the Model 3. Can Tesla have 2 new cars in design and testing at once?
whatever it is it's going to be something to kick-start sales in Q4 as Elon's done 2 things - one STOP discounting. Discontinue the X60's and discontinue the standard suspension - pushing the baseline price up $10k+. Obviously he has something planned to kickstart interest / sales / margins. Q3's incentive was the P100D. If he didn't have anything planned then Q4 sales could be a LOT worse than Q3 !!

 

[toby_wan_kenoby]

With new cell chemistry it makes sense to use the new cells that come out of gigafactory in Tesla battery packs and not just PowerWall 2.0

So I guess we will be able to see P140D at same weight, 0-60 in under 1.8 secs. More like a catapult launch.

 

[googlepeakoil]

I had already guessed AP2 hw, given inventory sell off and line stop. Add the new colours idea. But possibly GF2.

Good point about the inventory sell off! Also about 3-6 months ago I read Tesla quietly removed the "resale price guarantee". I think Tesla's do hold their price reasonably well though. Probably better than a top end BMW. Not sure about a Mercedes.

 

[edb49]

Obviously he has something planned to kickstart interest / sales / margins. Q3's incentive was the P100D. If he didn't have anything planned then Q4 sales could be a LOT worse than Q3 !!

Not sure I agree on this - it sort of assumes that demand is matched to Tesla's production capacity in Q3. This could be the case, or else they could have pent up demand they were unable to fulfil, e.g. they can't make cars as quickly as they can sell them. I'm not convinced their problems are demand-related. I think they probably need to do gimmicky things (like the P100D) to get margins up, rather than volume.

 

[googlepeakoil]

With new cell chemistry it makes sense to use the new cells that come out of gigafactory in Tesla battery packs and not just PowerWall 2.0

So I guess we will be able to see P140D at same weight, 0-60 in under 1.8 secs. More like a catapult launch.

Having just 3 months ago done the P100D with a reconfigured battery pack - AND Elon previously commenting about a 10% year-on-year increase it'd be economic suicide to start talking about anything like that. Currently cell production is probably heading towards Generation 2 Powerwall's only - and maybe in 9 months a new battery pack for the fleet of Model S and X just ahead of the 3.
If the 3 started at circa 50-80kwh. The S and X from 80 - 120 then that will be a good balance.
I expect the new cell shape would only give a 20% power density improvement. Elon talked about a 30% cost improvement as a minimum for the gigagactory - he never said performance. But he did say that the new shape is a more efficient trade-off between density / safety / performance.

I thought of something else NOT in the pick list - a refreshed S interior! That would explain the sell-off in the older cars to.

 

[andrerodpt]

I was thinking... Maybe they have reached an agreement with some country in Europe (and/or China) to build a Tesla factory/gigafactory.

Ok... it's not a product per se. But the timing would be unexpected and would free up some space in Fremont to accommodate the Model 3 line adding the benefit of not having too many "in transit" cars overseas (quite literally).

 

[Troy]

• 50% chance: Tesla vision
• 30% chance: Pay per use city-superchargers. These will look different than regular superchargers. They will have a different name and users will need buy credits on Tesla website to use them.
• 20% chance: Tag-along battery trailer to extend range.

 

[googlepeakoil]

Maybe wireless charging.
Something like this:
Green Car Congress: Ricardo licenses Qualcomm wireless EV charging technology for commercialization

Elon has spoken about how he doesn't think wireless charging is efficient. There's a 10% loss. That's 10kw per P100D charge! When you're only deailing with phones then it's ok - but not 10kw! He prefers the snake.

 

[googlepeakoil]

... or Model X without FWD.

they seem to be reducing options on cars. Removing colours. Removing the sprung suspension on X. Removing the 60. They went with just D on the X as it made the production line simpler. 99% sure they wouldn't do anything that'd make it more complicated - AND make it more so for less margin. They always invent on the high-end, not the low-end.

 

[googlepeakoil]

If it is new AP 2.0 hardware why did they ship P100Ds in Q3 and not announce the P100D a couple months later to align first deliveries with the new hardware? I am assuming they would retro install for the already shipped ones but still..

probably as Q3's margin incentive was P100's.
Q4's is autopilot 2.0
AND the 2 things are unrelated program teams - one is drivetrain - the other is electronics and sensors.

 

[googlepeakoil]

1200$ extra, but I'm just guessing.....

They put the price up from $2500 to 3000 3-6 months back. I doubt they'd do it again so soon. Given the bad-press about the deaths I imagine they won't put the price up anymore for a year or so - not until it's been a bit more proven as helping.
My personal issue with AP is that the 2 fatal crashes (Mr Brown, the Chinese man hitting the street cleaner) are because people believe AP to be flawless. If they didn't have AP these people would be concentrating on the road.
At the moment the safety improvements it seeing things you don't see and saving your life is balanced with people paying less attention to the road and not taking evasive action to really obvious obstructions. It's also total BS for Elon to claim an improved level of safety over the status quo based - stating "1 death per 100m miles" based on 1 datapoint (especially when it turns out it was 2 as the Chinese one had happened 6 months earlier). As somebody who works with statistics 1 datapoint shows a very poor understanding of probability and statistical analysis. It sits uneasily with the fact Tesla has a financial benefit to oversell AP - infinite margin as 1 car with AP costs the same as all cars (and that's $3000 x 10,000+ cars).

 

[Gregkeys]

we are probably all wrong and it's a new mass market rocket for colonizing Mars after the election, with EM as the new president of Mars

 

[googlepeakoil]

We expect:

PowerWall 2 & PowerPack 2
AP 2
Solar Roof

We don't all expect (but I do):
Solar roof on Tesla cars
Model Y/pickup
Bus
Truck (semi, etc.)
Inverter
AI enhancements to Tesla cars (ie, part of AP2 hw)
Swappable smaller batteries (smaller sizes, 2-4 per car, insert when needed)
Tractors (as in construction, farm, etc.). Standard ruggedized swappable battery packs would seem necessary to me. Dirty, rough, heavy duty, heavy duty cycle, heavy load, reliable, shaken a lot, etc. different than dainty premium EV's.
Jobsite power
Wireless charge, snake charge, whatever to not need plugin

He already said no:
Use car battery for home solar bidirectional

Coming later:
Model 3 (or is it already here?)

Down the road:
Airplane
Helicopter
RV
Redesigns of S,X,Roadster (spreading features of them around, adding features/luxury)
HUD
Emergency rockets in cars to divert around accidents


Or the cargo van based on Model X chassis he recently mentioned.

Am I the only one who thinks of this every time October 17th is mentioned?:

The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake occurred in Northern California on October 17 at 5:04 p.m.


I like the quad motors one. Gets rid of axle problems. I always thought electric motors allow this in a way ICE don't, and I based lots of designs off this concept.

After thread merge, I voted Semi. My second guess is Model Y/Pickup, and third guess is solar roof on car.

People: "unveil" is visual. AP2.0 hw isn't a match on multiple levels. If we're getting AP2 now, I think this unveiling is something else, additional to that. Same goes with policies (SuperCharging), existing packs new sales configs (100D).

PowerWall 2 & PowerPack 2, AP 2, Solar Roof - they're all coming the week after.

As the battery pack with all its shielding is built like a tank anyway with almost no moving parts its capable of many g's of acceleration - so wouldn't need to be more rugged for use in a tractor. It's half a ton plus. 8mm aluminium shielding. The pack has been shown to survive all but the most severe crash (not 100mph into a LA wall or a German tree) without catching fire then how is a farm tractor that's up high on wheels and doesn't move at more than 15mph going to need "more" protection"? I wouldn't describe the Model S as dainty!
Don't expect to see any aircraft for about 5-10 years at the earliest. Elon's spoken about a need for an increase in battery density.

 

[googlepeakoil]

Clearly he's talking about the unveiling of the MX Parcel Shelf

IMO, a bargain basement 5-seat MX60 "cargo carrier edition" will be introduced with 2nd-row folding seats (not motorised), and PAYG supercharging, with the 75 battery Unlimited Supercharging upgrade option available.

it's ridiculous that the X has less cargo carrying capacity than the S! But remember your seats are a "work of art" when you're trying to get your muddy mountainbike in the back!
I always found it amusing how Tesla first boasted about how electric cars had so few moving parts, were so simple.
Then Elon - before X came out talked about how the X was probably the most complicated car ever made.
That the S skateboard provided the platform to build anything on top there of. Well that went out the window.
Hopefully with Model 3 they'll be able to do several cars off the platform and not have to redesign everything again.
often they say (and Elon's said it) with technology (eg. DVD players) a company needs to go through 2 or 3 iterations of a product to get to an efficient cost-effective product.

 

[voyager]

Tesla could reveal all-new Model Y SUV this month

 

[ecarfan]

This article claims that Tesla is close to introducing a new feature, "Tesla Vision", that will in some unspecified way provide the driver with a clearer view of what a new Autopilot CPU is perceiving. It speculates this is what Elon says will be announced on Oct. 17th.

Tesla is about to increase its lead in semi-autonomous driving w/ ‘Tesla Vision’: computer vision based on NVIDIA’s parallel computing