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US/World ready for a Model 3 station wagon (= Model Y) ?

Discussion in 'Model Y' started by Laban, Apr 8, 2017.

?

US/World ready for a Model 3 station wagon ?

  1. Yes

    50 vote(s)
    80.6%
  2. No

    12 vote(s)
    19.4%
  1. Laban

    Laban Member

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    Well, i would argue that the V60 cross-country looks more like an SUV then the I-Pace (see images above). It's just a matter of increasing the ground clearance enough and put really fat tires on it. The I-Pace concept has 23" tires..
     
  2. smac

    smac Active Member

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    I agree the IPace looks less SUV than even the smaller stuff like the Nissan Juke.

    Where I think it will be different to sedan based wagons is the seating position. Higher and further forward.

    It's really tough to pigeon hole the car. A bit coupe, a bit hatchback, a bit SUV.

    Visually I think they've pulled it off, and so it's more marketing that's driving the SUV nomenclature.
     
  3. Laban

    Laban Member

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    Maybe, but there's only so much you can do when the height is the same (V60 cc vs I-Pace). And the Model 3 is a "rider forward" design:

    What It's Like to Ride in a Tesla Model 3

    Well, i really like the I-Pace and think they've made all the right decisions when it comes to the design. That's why i want Tesla to do something similar, which i think is possible with the Model 3 as the base. Start with this rendering, add a couple of inches of ground clearance, some plastics + fatter tires:

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. smac

    smac Active Member

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    You and me both!

    However my S comes out of warranty in H2 2018, and I really can't see the Y, being around in time to replace it. Even Tesla are saying the RHD Model 3 is going to ship no sooner than H2/2018.

    So where does that leave me? Buying the IPace, not a Tesla product. (Of course somewhat dependent on price and no delays, but then the same is true of the Y, which I can't even pre-register for.)

    Personally I wish they'd gone for the Y before the 3. It would have fit better with where the auto industry is going, giving them a larger addressable market globally. It would have been practical, 200mile+ capable, and had the benefit of the SpC. Now maybe the question is one of affordability, and they can't hit the price point in an SUV-esque body.

    As a more general philosophical question, would Tesla have been better off taking one more step along the path to affordability, going Roadster -> S/X -> Y -> E. With each step going down in price and up in volume?

    Playing devils advocate here, if we imagined the IPace was wearing a Tesla badge and a Y on the trunk lid, was available H1/2018 and priced at up to $70k.

    How many do you think they would sell?
    Would it have been enough to push the M3 deliveries back one year?
    Would it have allowed a more controlled production ramp?
    Would it have given more breathing room to build out SpC's and SC's?
     
  5. 11thIndian

    11thIndian Member

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    @smac

    Honestly my biggest issue with the iPace is that it's a Jag. I might be able to afford an iPace, but I'm not sure I can afford owning a Jaguar. There's a mental hurdle for me I can't quite get over. I'd be much more likely to do a short least on a competing offering from BMW or Audi. But neither of those will likely be out until after the Model Y is announced (in 2018?)- so I'll just wait anyway.

    With regards to production order, as much as I'd love for them to have done the Model Y first- they may have made the right move from a production scale standpoint. In the end I think the Y will sell probably double the yearly unit volume of the 3. With that in mind, it was smarter to start with the smaller challenge first. it's still going to sell in the hundreds of thousands per year- and with no additional capacity coming online until the Fremont expansion around 2020- it may be the better overall move to make the vehicle that you can actually get to supply/demand equilibrium with, based on Fremont's current 500,000/yr capacity.
     
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  6. Laban

    Laban Member

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    The problem is that Tesla needed the Gigafactory to produce a high volume car, and they needed a high volume car to get the investements for the Gigafactory. Panasonic has said that the 370k reservations played a big part in their commitment to the Gigafactory. $70k is not high volume.
     
  7. smac

    smac Active Member

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    @11thIndian Oh am am fully in agreement with not wanting a Jaguar badge, for a long time they have been seen as "old man's cars" and historically they've been pretty unreliable to boot.

    I sense it's changing though, the F-Pace is leading the charge, and they really are pretty trendy to have right now. They've been on sale a bit longer here, and there are a lot about. Distinctly driven by a demographic who definitely don't conform to the Jaguar stereotype.

    This is reflected in the US sales figures too:
    Jaguar F-Pace is Jaguar's best selling car - Jaguar's US sales up 226% in October

    In some ways I prefer the look of the Audi, but it's going to be years before that comes out in RHD form.


    @Laban Technically speaking the commitment by Panasonic to the GF, preceded the pre-orders opening, so the 370k reservations weren't necessarily a factor. Though I grant you they may have scaled back the investment if the segment Tesla was aiming at was only 200k PA, not 500k PA.

    However they still had powerwalls, who's demand is off the hook. (and yes that was a little bit of sarcasm, but fundamentally this could have taken up the slack, especially if they do more grid scale stuff).

    It's done now, so the debate is somewhat moot.



    Will Tesla lose some high end 3 reservations to the IPace, likely. Will Jaguar lose some XE sales to the Model 3, probably.

    Will the IPace be an interesting car to see, undoubtedly.

    When mine arrives will I give a fair and honest comparison to the folks on TMC, definitely.
     
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  8. Laban

    Laban Member

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    I know that they had a commitment before the pre-order but they have said that the 370k reservations made them convinced about investing more (and at a faster pace) in the Gigafactory. ~ "may have scaled back.. " as you said.

    Now, a warning for my mad photoshop (gimp actually) skills. The Model 3 "I-Pace" crossover !!

    tesla-model-3-hatchback-crossover.jpg
     
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  9. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    #29 stopcrazypp, Apr 12, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2017
    Whatever they do, they should never call it a station wagon (I voted no for this reason). That's suicide in the US market and in the European market it doesn't help either. CUVs/crossovers are popular everywhere (including in Europe, where it is fast stealing sales from all other segments). Just call it a crossover and be done with it.

    I'm reminded of Jalopnik where they always call for a wagon variant in the US. The automakers are never rewarded with sales even when they release one.
     
    • Like x 2
  10. Laban

    Laban Member

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    True, the title of the thread is perhaps a bit misleading. It should have been "ready for a Model 3 station wagon type crossover" :)
     
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  11. SwTslaGrl

    SwTslaGrl Member

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    Hmm.. it looks similar to this: Volvo’s first all-electric vehicle will be built in China and exported globally, says report
     
  12. 11thIndian

    11thIndian Member

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    I'd be happy to entertain anything that's not a straight-up sedan. A kid, a big shaggy dog, bikes, and a paddle board demand it. I'm looking for as straight up replacement for my Subaru Forester as I can.

    With Elon's comments that 2018 would be the year for Model Y news, I think the most relevant info we'll be getting this year for production timeframe will be the Gigafactory announcements that Elon talked about during the last earnings call. If those announcements give any kind of timeframe- it will help with knowing when Tesla will have production capacity to start Model Y production. Right now the Fremont expansion is the only thing in the offering, and that doesn't come into effect until 2020- and I really... REALLY hope they can start production in 2019. With all the commonalities there are supposed to be between the 3 and the Y, and everything they're learning this year from the production ramp on the Model 3- there's not an unreasonable possibility that the spread between unveiling and production could be shorter than the Model 3.
     
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  13. Laban

    Laban Member

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  14. SwTslaGrl

    SwTslaGrl Member

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    Yes the Volvo looks a bit boxy, perhaps the design is different at the $35k price point. They have common elements though, the lower roofline and back.
     
  15. Laban

    Laban Member

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    The lowered roofline seems to be a trend among the electric SUV concepts:

    Mercedes:

    [​IMG]
    Audi

    [​IMG]

    Remove the plastics, 22 in. tires from the Audi and you'll have a station wagon. The Mercedes is, well, ugly..
     
    • Like x 1
  16. smac

    smac Active Member

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    Trend or necessity?

    We are still bound by energy density of batteries compared to ICE, so where a traditional SUV can be "wasteful" in an EV every joule counts.

    Pickups are even worse. What's the betting Tesla's pickup bears a resemblance to the El Camino, or Subaru Brat, but with an optional sloping hard top required to get stated range.
     
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  17. Laban

    Laban Member

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    True, i would guess something like this:

    [​IMG]

    Rather than:

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Ludus

    Ludus Member

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    The distinctions do get kind of muddled. Cars are now almost all unibody construction and trucks body on chassis. So SUVs are trucks and Crossovers CUVs are SUV like vehicles that are unibody construction. Station wagons are traditionally cars with third seats and lower car like profiles. Tesla messes this distinction up by building cars as body on chassis like trucks and I think they intend to take this further. Teslas are going for complete modularity with Skates that contain the entire drive system and bodys/battery packs that are plug and play modules. So there isn't any hard line between cars and trucks for Tesla and it's all in the design and details.
     
  19. alfagiulia

    alfagiulia Member

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    The Jaguar F-Pace is a hideous car. No I am NOT German, so it's not a reflexive cultural stereotype. The F-Type and XE at least look a little nicer. But they are relatively heavy and slow. I'm definitely not excited about an I-Pace. But a versatile, small, electric hatchback would be great. I think this type will dominate car sales in Europe in coming years. But the US is still in love with big cars.
     
  20. smac

    smac Active Member

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    @alfagiula as everything it's subjective. While individually we may or may not like the styling of a particular car (and I'm not a fan of the X), what truly matters is the sales figures.

    The F-Pace has been a huge success for JLR, propelling them to #1 in the growth charts for US sales. Ultimately I think this means the design team did a good job.

    As for the IPace. I am excited about it, it's good to have a choice. Whilst I'm English, this isn't patriotism, the IPace will be my first JLR product and my choice is one simply based on timing of RHD availability. (Life's too short for another S, and the X doesn't appeal.)
     

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