This new one is better. I’d be surprised if they keep the same last 6 digit numbering sequence though.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
VINs from GIGA Texas Tracking. Who will be first?
- Thread starter BGOwner
- Start date
Once they are in full swing, yes. But will a ramp up of production, it will be hit or miss at the start.
When did you order? Maybe you got moved from Jan to April as a placeholder until they recalculate for Austin. Mine got moved to June, no dates nothing, just June.
Last edited:
Mine didn't move. I put on hold till April.
I packed order on Dec/19. Initial delivery estimate was "July". Around Jan/04 , EDD changed to Jan/16-Feb/10. So I have to put hold. Now wondering if I get Austin one.
how were you able to put it on hold until then? only asking because i’d like to order now but also take delivery later
Ah, if you ordered in Dec and you got a Jan EDD, assume you ordered a MYP. With the lower demand for a MYP and quicker delivery time, it sure if they will be produced in Austin or not. If they increased production facilities for MYP, it won’t be long before they will have a surplus.
preilly44
Member
We had a EDD of September and it was just moved to Feb 24- Mar 24. Hoping that means Austin will ramp up faster than they anticipated 
Realistically, that probably isn't accurate though...
Realistically, that probably isn't accurate though...
Sludog
Member
Then that Jan had to be a car someone passed on. I would expect a June/July delivery date by default, for normal delivery time
Yes. Someone passed on, likely would be. If Austin production goes to east coast then, what about Chicago ? Being in Midwest.
Sludog
Member
My model Y EDD just changed this morning from 1/8-1/19 to 1/23-2/4. White on white no add ons and 8/18 order date. Giga Texas vehicle seems likely but you never know.
I really think people need to take a deep breath on Giga Texas. It’s not like Monday they say go and then 1000 cars a week come out of that place and start shipping Tuesday. It’s going to be a series of walkthrough builds, training, QA holds and validation and proofing. Dozens of vehicles most kept internally. Maybe some released for a launch event in January. And then they will begin producing.
Based on traditional manufacturing ramp and what we know from Teslas history, IF and it’s a BIG IF, Austin starts production next week the realistic best case would be a few hundred cars shipped to customers in Feb. March and April on would be meaningful numbers (1.000+) and by June they should be pushing major ramp and stop shipping from Fremont to east coast.
I just don’t see logistically anything different. It just doesn’t work that way in automated manufacturing. Especially with something that has the complexity and safety requirements of a car. Much less the risk of a large recall.
East of Mississippi. They keep saying east coast. Chicago will be seeing MY from Austin
I agree. The first few weeks will likely be built for insiders, employees, friends and family.
Here is a projections YouTube based on Shanghai. We already know training has been going on for some time now, as has QA. Estimate is 500 cars a week at start. If I recall the projections correct
Lots of assumptions in that video and then they use average a lot. 2000 cars a week in the last 2 weeks of March does a lot to raise the “average“ for the quarter. There’s also the whole when is start / start. Training may be ongoing, but production training hasn’t. We used to train on production lines and you could simulate, test, etc all day but until actual line production with ramp speeds and downstream holds and defects start happening you haven’t really trained.
My only point is the people with late Jan and early Feb EDDs saying this means Austin if they start production next week…. there may be some lucky lottery winners, but no. They aren’t shifting EDDs for Jan / Feb based on Austin. And if you have an EDD of Jan 21-Feb 3, you are not getting an Austin build. They will not make the first car in Austin on Monday and start shipping out Wednesday or Thursday. It’s just not realistic.
I put mine on hold also. Ordered October 21. Said delivery was aug 22. Moved edd between Jan 21-feb28 of 22. Texted the person I worked with at the store to place the order and asked them to put it on hold. They said because my original delivery date was aug, they can put it on hold without any issues. It will come off hold in August 22.
I had a long standing March-April EDD, then went to June last week. I am hoping this is because I am getting an Austin MY. Know a bunch of other eastern half of US people have also moved to June, most seemed to have had late Feb to April EDD
I would agree the likelihood of a June Austin MY is much much higher than a Jan or Feb Austin MY.
I’m hoping there is some semblance of Austin production factored in for all Model Ys (and has been for 6+ months). If not, it’s going to be crazy when they reshuffle and everyone from April onwards starts pulling forward and some November 2022 people end up with July EDDs. I just can’t imagine Tesla was that inefficient. They may ramp faster (or slower) and it may shift some EDDs, but to think they didn’t factor Austin production in at all for Oct or November LR delivery estimates would be insane.
I’m sure you’re right about initial limited production and the first Austin VINs being ‘lottery winners’ (TBD if initial QA is good enough to feel like a lottery winner). It’s that hope of winning the lottery that keeps threads like this going.
The one thing I question is the timeline for training, etc. There have been videos showing equipment testing since August and reports of hiring and training for a while. The number of cars parked at the site would seem to support this. I wouldn’t put it past Elon to be concealing a lot of those initial steps to have a flashy start of production with bigger than expected output.
Then again, I could just be be fooling myself like everyone who hopes to win the lottery.
Similar threads
