I would agree the likelihood of a June Austin MY is much much higher than a Jan or Feb Austin MY.
I’m hoping there is some semblance of Austin production factored in for all Model Ys (and has been for 6+ months). If not, it’s going to be crazy when they reshuffle and everyone from April onwards starts pulling forward and some November 2022 people end up with July EDDs. I just can’t imagine Tesla was that inefficient. They may ramp faster (or slower) and it may shift some EDDs, but to think they didn’t factor Austin production in at all for Oct or November LR delivery estimates would be insane.