Was just told that AP 2.0 won't get FSD.

[banned-66611]

I'd wait a few years. If FSD does eventually happen by then other manufacturers will have their systems out too, and Tesla will have to cut the price to keep it competitive.

Remember that their survival plan is robotaxis, so the moment someone undercuts them they have no choice but to join that price war.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

This is a thread about FSD on mid-aged S and X with HW2.
Older S&X with HW1 aren't getting it. Newer S&X with HW2.5 should get the HW3 upgrade when the 3's with HW2.5 get it, and that is supposed to be an "easy" upgrade.

The question is whether Tesla have designed a HW3-based upgrade for S&X with HW2, but probably more importantly whether the cameras and sensors on those vehicles can be made to match those required for FSD and to feed the correct data into the compute engine.

I think its better than a 50/50 proposition, maybe 80/20.
There's a lot of pressure on Tesla to do it, and in the grand scheme of things there aren't that many S&X vehicles which require upgrading. So I think that if its possible, Tesla will find a way to do it. I just don't know if there's some really nasty gotcha in some or all of these vehicles that would prevent it.
I also think that the cost of the upgrade will exceed the money that was paid, but since not that many vehicles are involved, the hit to Tesla's bottom line will be trivial.

If I was running Tesla, I wouldn't allow S&X with HW2 to buy FSD going forwards, and I'd drop it off the cars that it sells as used.
But I would find a way to honor the relatively few vehicles on the road that need upgrading, and offer owners an option to get their money back instead of the upgrade.

Does anyone know how many S&X with HW2 paid for FSD and are still on the road?

 

[Pale_Rider]

AP2 was available for 3-4 quarters while they were making around 25k cars per quarter, so total is likely somewhere between 75k-100k cars potentially.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

AP2 was available for 3-4 quarters while they were making around 25k cars per quarter, so total is likely somewhere between 75k-100k cars potentially.

I understand the potential, but what was the take-up on FSD? Its that which matters.
On the Q2-19 conference call, Elon said that the take-up for FSD was "low", whatever that means.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I understand the potential, but what was the take-up on FSD? Its that which matters.
On the Q2-19 conference call, Elon said that the take-up for FSD was "low", whatever that means.

That’s not all that matters. Everyone who bought cars with AP 2.0 hardware were told they were buying cars with future FSD ability, and would be able to pay for and enable it in the future. Tesla is on the hook for all of those cars one way or another.

 

[whitex]

This is a thread about FSD on mid-aged S and X with HW2.

Exactly. The only thing is, this discussion is probably moot. By the time FSD will be ready (as defined for the old cars which is "robotaxi ready", not using FSD definition of today which consists mostly of the old EAP features), the now middle-aged S and X will not so old, most of them will not be safe to drive, especially by FSD. As FSD industry evolves, there may be further regulation requiring things older cars are not equipped for, for example all FSD cars to communicate with each other in real time - standards are already being developed.

Bottom line, nobody will care in 10+ years time whether 12+ year old S or X can be retrofitted with HW3 - Tesla will be on HW6 by then too.

 

[Ludalicious]

Exactly. The only thing is, this discussion is probably moot. By the time FSD will be ready (as defined for the old cars which is "robotaxi ready", not using FSD definition of today which consists mostly of the old EAP features), the now middle-aged S and X will not so old, most of them will not be safe to drive, especially by FSD. As FSD industry evolves, there may be further regulation requiring things older cars are not equipped for, for example all FSD cars to communicate with each other in real time - standards are already being developed.

Bottom line, nobody will care in 10+ years time whether 12+ year old S or X can be retrofitted with HW3 - Tesla will be on HW6 by then too.

Let's just wait and see how this whole FSD thing plays out. It hasn't even been released yet. Then we can ask the question... How much longer before people starts seeking legal advice. I feel as if it's 1-2 years away

 

[dsnows]

This is a thread about FSD on mid-aged S and X with HW2.

Does anyone know how many S&X with HW2 paid for FSD and are still on the road?

I don’t know how many, but I am one of them. Bought Model S Dec 2016 with HW2 and paid for FSD at that time. Still waiting for my free FSD computer upgrade.

 

[tga]

Everyone who bought cars with AP 2.0 hardware were told they were buying cars with future FSD ability

They said the same thing about AP1 HW as well...

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

They said the same thing about AP1 HW as well...

I’m pretty sure they didn’t claim AP1 would be FSD, but they definitely claimed more than what was delivered.

 

[TaoJones]

I’m pretty sure they didn’t claim AP1 would be FSD, but they definitely claimed more than what was delivered.

Stop sign reaction is part of FSD.

Elon said in late 2014 (when AP1 & D cars were announced) that Teslas would react to stop signs. No qualifiers whatsoever.

Ergo...

 

[banned-66611]

I wonder to what extent an Elon Musk tweet can be taken as a sales pitch, resulting in "not as described" legal issues.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

I don’t know how many, but I am one of them. Bought Model S Dec 2016 with HW2 and paid for FSD at that time. Still waiting for my free FSD computer upgrade.

At this point there's nothing to be gained from having HW3 if you have HW2.5 (until V10 is released), though I expect HW2 owners would get some benefit from being upgraded to HW3.
It seems wise for Tesla to start upgrading HW2 FSD owners to HW3, providing that doesn't result in a degradation in capability. but I do wish I knew how many cars have FSD, perhaps 10% to 15%, which would equate to around 10K cars? Estimating upgrade cost of $2K for parts and labor, then that's a US$200M hit to the bottom line spread out over Q3, Q4 and Q1. Doable, especially since they can start recognizing some FSD revenue as they start to rollout some FSD-specific features in Q4 and Q1.

 

[banned-66611]

It seems wise for Tesla to start upgrading HW2 FSD owners to HW3

It makes no sense to do that until they have FSD working, demonstrated, proven. Otherwise they risk realizing they need more compute power or an additional sensor or something, and having to upgrade cars twice.

That makes is incredibly awkward for them as they will reach a point where there are features below FSD that only HW3 can support, and people who paid for FSD will naturally want them.

I wouldn't get too excited about V10. I remember when the release last September was supposed to bring miraculous improvements and new features. It's starting to become a yearly tradition.

 

[dsnows]

Besides FSD, which I expect only incremental feature advances for the near future, I would benefit from other features with new FSD computer. Right now on my S with HW2.0 I don’t even have dash cam or sentry mode. Those would be nice. Besides I paid for FSD 2 1/2 years ago (I know, I was a sucker) and would like to see something for my money.

 

[DriverOne]

I just got the "upgrade for $3K" email. I have AP2.0 right now. Pretty sure they're not going to switch out my cameras, even though they will switch out the GPU.

Would I get Sentry mode & dash cam? I'm guessing not... which is about the only feature I would get today for my $3K and quite a desirable one at that. Paying $3K and *not* getting those features doesn't seem worthwhile.

 

[Forty Creek]

I just got the "upgrade for $3K" email. I have AP2.0 right now. Pretty sure they're not going to switch out my cameras, even though they will switch out the GPU.

Would I get Sentry mode & dash cam? I'm guessing not... which is about the only feature I would get today for my $3K and quite a desirable one at that. Paying $3K and *not* getting those features doesn't seem worthwhile.

Most are of the opinion that you (we) won't get sentry or dash cam because those features need a new MCU (which is a different upgrade). If you already have EAP, then you should eventually gain traffic light and stop sign recognition. Not sure what else... maybe advanced summon.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

Most are of the opinion that you (we) won't get sentry or dash cam because those features need a new MCU (which is a different upgrade). If you already have EAP, then you should eventually gain traffic light and stop sign recognition. Not sure what else... maybe advanced summon.

I thought "traffic light and stop sign recognition" were supposed to be the first FSD-specific capabilities. Supposedly to be released in Q4.

One could argue that Advanced Summon should have been as well, but Elon said it would be part of EAP. Perhaps they'd have got it working sooner if they'd have standardized it down to FSD and HW3-equipped vehicles.

 

[Forty Creek]

I thought "traffic light and stop sign recognition" were supposed to be the first FSD-specific capabilities.

Likely correct. I was responding to another HW 2.0 owner who has also purchased FSD and who therefor has shorter range radar, non full colour cameras and a lack of steering redundancy. HW 2.5 came with these (and more) improvements.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Likely correct. I was responding to another HW 2.0 owner who has also purchased FSD and who therefor has shorter range radar, non full colour cameras and a lack of steering redundancy. HW 2.5 came with these (and more) improvements.

I read on here or somewhere that 2.0 has the steering redundancy. Are you sure it doesn’t?