Waymo or Tesla on a random city & route - who would do better?

[hooty]

There is an unsubstantiated catch cry that robotaxis cannot operate outside HD mapped cities.
So, if a random route in a random American city was chosen, where Waymo has not HD mapped, would Tesla FSD beta or Waymo travel it more accurately (defined by number & extent of driver interventions)?

 

[Tam]

There is an unsubstantiated catch cry that robotaxis cannot operate outside HD mapped cities.
So, if a random route in a random American city was chosen, where Waymo has not HD mapped, would Tesla FSD beta or Waymo travel it more accurately (defined by number & extent of driver interventions)?

Waymo is geofenced so any random area that Waymo has not done its homework won't work. The car would freeze up and either a technician or a tow truck needs to take it away.

Homework, being well prepared is Waymo's reputation.

GM Cruise has been in the news lately, and I suspect that because it doesn't do as much homework as Waymo does.

 

[EVNow]

So, if a random route in a random American city was chosen, where Waymo has not HD mapped, would Tesla FSD beta or Waymo travel it more accurately (defined by number & extent of driver interventions)?

Waymo will not move an inch. It simply doesn't work without HD maps at this time

 

[Supcom]

"More accurate" is ambiguous unless you specify what you are measuring.

 

[diplomat33]

Waymo is geofenced so any random area that Waymo has not done its homework won't work. The car would freeze up and either a technician or a tow truck needs to take it away.

Waymo will not move an inch. It simply doesn't work without HD maps at this time

Please stop spreading these lies. It is completely false. Waymo has said that HD maps are priors and the cars can drive without them. In fact, there are situations where the HD map is wrong, like a new construction zone, and the Waymo still drives. Waymo has also said that they drive in real-time with the sensors. So Waymo can work without HD maps. Waymo says they use HD maps because it improves safety. And JJ ricks even took a ride a bit outside a geofence once in one of his old videos. The car did not just stop and require a tech to retrieve it. The geofences are just the chosen service areas for the ride-hailing service. They are not a hard limit that stops the autonomous driving from working. Waymo Driver is generalized, it can work anywhere. Waymo chooses to always use HD maps and geofences because it makes the driving safer, the testing easier and deploying a ride-hailing easier. From Brad Templeton article:

"The robotaxi companies have constrained their operations to specific service areas for a variety of reasons:

1. One must gather map data on the new area. Thanks the the improvement of crowdsourced map approaches, this has become low cost — MobilEye brags to mapping most of Europe in a month.
2. One must test the system in the new area, or take the risk of it driving on a road with an unexpected feature that has never been seen or tested before. Problems found must be fixed and confirmed to be very rare
3. One must make arrangements with governments to operate in the area
4. One must have resources and staff to support the new customers in the new area, unless one is only allowing old customers to travel in the new area."

Waymo To Serve Austin; Cruise In Nashville And The Myth Of Geofences

We examine the debate between Tesla's "Supervised on any street" and Waymo's "Drive safely in a few cities, then expand" approach

www.forbes.com

 

[diplomat33]

There is an unsubstantiated catch cry that robotaxis cannot operate outside HD mapped cities.
So, if a random route in a random American city was chosen, where Waymo has not HD mapped, would Tesla FSD beta or Waymo travel it more accurately (defined by number & extent of driver interventions)?

Brad Templeton says that Waymo and Cruise would likely drive better based on their superior experience and sensors but we can't know for sure since Waymo/Cruise do not go outside geofences and are not interested in that approach:

"it’s likely that companies like Waymo and Cruise could, should they feel motivated to, produce a system would could drive in random new territory with just navigation maps and a supervising driver. Indeed, with their greater experience and superior sensor suites, it seems likely this system would perform far better than Tesla FSD, though that can’t be said with certainty as they have not done it and are unlikely to wish to."

Waymo To Serve Austin; Cruise In Nashville And The Myth Of Geofences

We examine the debate between Tesla's "Supervised on any street" and Waymo's "Drive safely in a few cities, then expand" approach

www.forbes.com

 

[Tam]

Please stop spreading these lies. It is completely false. Waymo has said that HD maps are priors and the cars can drive without them. Waymo has also said that they drive in real-time with the sensors, not the HD map. So Waymo works without HD maps. Waymo says they use HD maps because it improves safety. And JJ ricks even took a ride a bit outside a geofence once in one of his old videos. The car did not just stop and require a tech to retrieve it. The geofences are just the chosen service areas for the ride-hailing service. They are not a hard limit that stops the autonomous driving from working. Waymo Driver is generalized, it can work anywhere. Waymo uses geofence because it makes testing easier and deploying a ride-hailing easier. From Brad Templeton article:

"The robotaxi companies have constrained their operations to specific service areas for a variety of reasons:

1. One must gather map data on the new area. Thanks the the improvement of crowdsourced map approaches, this has become low cost — MobilEye brags to mapping most of Europe in a month.
2. One must test the system in the new area, or take the risk of it driving on a road with an unexpected feature that has never been seen or tested before. Problems found must be fixed and confirmed to be very rare
3. One must make arrangements with governments to operate in the area
4. One must have resources and staff to support the new customers in the new area, unless one is only allowing old customers to travel in the new area."

Waymo To Serve Austin; Cruise In Nashville And The Myth Of Geofences

We examine the debate between Tesla's "Supervised on any street" and Waymo's "Drive safely in a few cities, then expand" approach

www.forbes.com

There is no doubt that Waymo sensors can work outside of geofenced areas.

Undoubtedly, Waymo can work outside of areas where Waymo staff have not done the homework.

Just because it can, that does not Waymo allows it to do it without homework.

But what separates Waymo from others is Preparation.

Yes, it can can run without homework, without preparation but in so doing, it becomes a reckless company, and recklessness would no longer make Waymo a Waymo anymore but some other companies.

Tesla implies preparation is to "game it":

“We could have done the coast-to-coast drive, but it would have required too much specialized code to effectively game it or make it somewhat brittle and that it would work for one particular route, but not the general solution. So I think we would be able to repeat it, but if it’s just not any other route, which is not really a true solution,” Musk said.

In generalization, a Tesla might choose the wrong lane to go straight or turn.

Waymo prepared its system to make sure it knows exactly how many lanes are there in that intersection and which lanes go where.

There's a GM cruise that was hit when it's turning left from the middle lane or lane number 2 (second from left lane) together with the backhoe that's in lane number 1 (leftmost lane). I suspect that's the result of not doing homework with the same intensity as the way Waymo does.

Cruise car reportedly swerves in backhoe's way, is busted in SF intersection

Another way to put it is yes, a GM CEO has the ability to tweet Hitler meme but if she exercises that ability, then her company is more like Tesla and not GM anymore. And someone would cry that it's a lie that GM CEO cannot tweet Hitler meme!

 

[diplomat33]

There is no doubt that Waymo sensors can work outside of geofenced areas.

Undoubtedly, Waymo can work outside of areas where Waymo staff have not done the homework.

Just because it can, that does not Waymo allows it to do it without homework.

But what separates Waymo from others is Preparation.

Yes, its can can run without homework, without preparation but in so doing, it becomes a reckless company, and recklessness would no longer make Waymo a Waymo anymore but some other companies.

Tesla implies preparation is to "game it":

“We could have done the coast-to-coast drive, but it would have required too much specialized code to effectively game it or make it somewhat brittle and that it would work for one particular route, but not the general solution. So I think we would be able to repeat it, but if it’s just not any other route, which is not really a true solution,” Musk said.

In generalization, a Tesla might choose the wrong lane to go straight or turn.

Waymo prepared its system to make sure it knows exactly how many lanes are there in that intersection and which lanes go where.

There's a GM cruise was hit when it's turning left from the middle lane or lane number 2 (second from left lane) together with the backhoe that's in lane number 1 (leftmost lane). I suspect that's the result of not doing homework with the same intensity as the way Waymo does.

Cruise car reportedly swerves in backhoe's way, is busted in SF intersection

Another way to put it is yes, a GM CEO has the ability to tweet Hitler meme but if she exercises that ability, then her company is more like Tesla and not GM anymore.

Certainly, Waymo does a lot of work and preparation before launching a new robotaxi service. It allows Waymo robotaxis to offer a better service IMO. But it is wrong to say that the tech would just freeze outside the geofence. Maybe it would encounter a new edge case that Waymo has not tested yet and drive less reliably, but it would drive. I just think we need to be clear that preparation does not mean that Waymo specializes the Driver to each city. Waymo Driver is generalized autonomous driving.

 

[zoomer0056]

There is an unsubstantiated catch cry that robotaxis cannot operate outside HD mapped cities.
So, if a random route in a random American city was chosen, where Waymo has not HD mapped, would Tesla FSD beta or Waymo travel it more accurately (defined by number & extent of driver interventions)?

We'll never know if Waymo doesn't operated outside HD mapped cities. When will the first Autono Cross (moto cross) or Autono Wars (robot wars) competitions with autos happen?

 

[Tam]

When will the first Autono Cross (moto cross)...

I think Waymo has emphasized safety rather than being the champion in the race.

It prepares its geofenced area meticulously to ensure no embarrassing incidents or serious collisions.

Anthony Levandowski (former Google/Waymo, former Otto, former Uber) boasts zero intervention in the Coast-to-Coast Autonomous trip in 2018.

Video Shows the Autonomous Car A.I. That's Taking This Guy Coast-to-Coast

www.inverse.com

 

[Yelobird]

Brad Templeton says that Waymo and Cruise would likely drive better based on their superior experience and sensors but we can't know for sure since Waymo/Cruise do not go outside geofences and are not interested in that approach:

"it’s likely that companies like Waymo and Cruise could, should they feel motivated to, produce a system would could drive in random new territory with just navigation maps and a supervising driver. Indeed, with their greater experience and superior sensor suites, it seems likely this system would perform far better than Tesla FSD, though that can’t be said with certainty as they have not done it and are unlikely to wish to."

Waymo To Serve Austin; Cruise In Nashville And The Myth Of Geofences

We examine the debate between Tesla's "Supervised on any street" and Waymo's "Drive safely in a few cities, then expand" approach

www.forbes.com

As the thread title is any city the day Waymo can pick me up in the south suburbs of Chicago there might be a comparison or challenge. For now in my area and 95% of America it is as useful as a Metra train for autonomy going to a grocery store to me.

 

[hooty]

Brad Templeton says that Waymo and Cruise would likely drive better based on their superior experience and sensors but we can't know for sure since Waymo/Cruise do not go outside geofences and are not interested in that approach:

"it’s likely that companies like Waymo and Cruise could, should they feel motivated to, produce a system would could drive in random new territory with just navigation maps and a supervising driver. Indeed, with their greater experience and superior sensor suites, it seems likely this system would perform far better than Tesla FSD, though that can’t be said with certainty as they have not done it and are unlikely to wish to."

Waymo To Serve Austin; Cruise In Nashville And The Myth Of Geofences

We examine the debate between Tesla's "Supervised on any street" and Waymo's "Drive safely in a few cities, then expand" approach

www.forbes.com

(moderator edit)
Nice to get the view from an industry expert

 

[EVNow]

Please stop spreading these lies. It is completely false. Waymo has said that HD maps are priors and the cars can drive without them. In fact, there are situations where the HD map is wrong, like a new construction zone, and the Waymo still drives. Waymo has also said that they drive in real-time with the sensors. So Waymo can work without HD maps.

Hmmm ... do you know they work without HD maps? Do you have any proof they do ?

I've designed a number of systems where we have "priors" and if the "priors" have issues the system would still work. But if the priors are not available, the system would not.

I think you should hold yourself to a higher bar before accusing others of "spreading lies".

This also reminds me why I stopped posting much in the wretched forum. (moderator edit)

 

[diplomat33]

Hmmm ... do you know they work without HD maps? Do you have any proof they do ?

I've designed a number of systems where we have "priors" and if the "priors" have issues the system would still work. But if the priors are not available, the system would not.

I think you should hold yourself to a higher bar before accusing others of "spreading lies".

I have direct quotes from Waymo engineers that their cars do not freeze or stop if if there is no HD map. I've posted those quotes plenty of times. So yes, I am pretty confident in saying that it is a lie that Waymo cars would just freeze and stall if they were outside the geofence.

And I have direct quotes from Waymo engineers that the cars can drive when the map is wrong. I have direct quotes from Waymo engineers that the cars use real-time perception to determine drivable space. Again, I've shared those clips many times. So based on those quotes, I think I am correct that Waymo cars can drive without maps. But as I stated, Waymo chooses to always drive with HD maps for safety reasons.

Everything I post is backed up by facts and research. That is the bar I hold myself too.

I am not saying statements are lies for no reason. They are lies because they directly contradict facts.

This also reminds me why I stopped posting much in the wretched forum. People like you.

I don't know what I ever did to you. I try to be reasonable, informed and polite on this forum.

 

[Yelobird]

I have direct quotes from Waymo engineers that their cars do not freeze or stop if if there is no HD map. I've posted those quotes plenty of times. So yes, I am pretty confident in saying that it is a lie that Waymo cars would just freeze and stall if they were outside the geofence.

And I have direct quotes from Waymo engineers that the cars can drive when the map is wrong. I have direct quotes from Waymo engineers that the cars use real-time perception to determine drivable space. Again, I've shared those clips many times. So based on those quotes, I think I am correct that Waymo cars can drive without maps. But as I stated, Waymo chooses to always drive with HD maps for safety reasons.

Everything I post is backed up by facts and research. That is the bar I hold myself too.

I am not saying statements are lies for no reason. They are lies because they directly contradict facts.



I don't know what I ever did to you. I try to be reasonable, informed and polite on this forum.

We have direct quotes from Tesla…. Never mind you get the point. Unless you have personal validation an opinion is as far as we can take these “engineer quotes” In my opinion.

 

[diplomat33]

We have direct quotes from Tesla…. Never mind you get the point. Unless you have personal validation an opinion is as far as we can take these “engineer quotes” In my opinion.

That's such BS from Tesla fans. Engineers who work for Tesla or Waymo know how the system works since they designed it. They are a repudiable source. And it is a double standard because Tesla fans accept quotes from Karpathy or Ashok all the time. When Ashok tweets about E2E, you accept it as fact but somehow a conference talk by Anguleov does not count? I have to personally validate the Waymo myself for it to count? If I made a false statement about FSD, it is would be perfectly legit to provide a quote from Karpathy that disproves it but somehow a quote form Anguelov or Dolgov does not count? Tesla fans just don't want to accept facts that are inconvenient.

Maybe I should hold Tesla fans to that standard. You are not allowed to provide any facts about V12 based on quotes from actual Tesla engineers who work on V12. I will only accept personal validation of V12 as proof. You can't because V12 is not public? Tough, I will say that any engineer quotes you provide were lies because you did not personally validate it. See how silly that would be?

 

[diplomat33]

Hmmm ... do you know they work without HD maps? Do you have any proof they do ?

I've designed a number of systems where we have "priors" and if the "priors" have issues the system would still work. But if the priors are not available, the system would not.

I think you should hold yourself to a higher bar before accusing others of "spreading lies".

This also reminds me why I stopped posting much in the wretched forum. (moderator edit)

We have direct quotes from Tesla…. Never mind you get the point. Unless you have personal validation an opinion is as far as we can take these “engineer quotes” In my opinion.

You want video proof?

2 years ago, JJ Ricks took a 4th Gen Pacifica outside the service area. You can see on the app that the car is outside the geofence. The car turns around. It does not freeze and stop. There is your proof! I am not just taking quotes and making stuff up! We have concrete video proof that any claim that the Waymo will just freeze if it goes outside the geofence is a lie. @Tam you were wrong to say that the Waymo would just freeze up and need a tech to retrive it if it left the geofence.

 

[father_of_6]

I'll take my Model 3 over a Chrysler Pacifica any day of the week... but if I needed one to drive itself - it would be the one with LiDAR and by Waymo.

I'm rooting for Tesla all the way, but anyone with eyes can see that FSD is not doing well and has been getting further behind each year. That's not to say that Tesla couldn't have a breakthrough... but my personal opinion is that autonomous driving requires LiDAR.

 

[diplomat33]

I'll take my Model 3 over a Chrysler Pacifica any day of the week... but if I needed one to drive itself - it would be the one with LiDAR and by Waymo.

FYI, Waymo discontinued the Pacifica. They now only use the Jaguar I-Pace. Personally, I like the I-Pace much better.

 

[Larry Hutchinson]

They now only use the Jaguar I-Pace.

I seem to recall that the the I-pace is not long for this world. But with my memory, who knows.

So, I googled it, and yes, it is being discontinued.