What is the REAL time to delivery?

[ultracoop]

I need to make some tough decisions today that may include giving up on Tesla. It's been 6 months and have recently lost my second 10-14 day EDD.

Is there any idea at this point what the REAL wait time is to delivery? It's obviously NOT 6 months anymore.

What is it? 8 months? 10? 12?

I can stretch things another month (maybe 2) but have to return my lease today so not sure what to do...

Does Tesla monitor this forum at all? Do they even care to help people in situations like this?

 

[glide]

I need to make some tough decisions today that may include giving up on Tesla. It's been 6 months and have recently lost my second 10-14 day EDD.

Is there any idea at this point what the REAL wait time is to delivery? It's obviously NOT 6 months anymore.

What is it? 8 months? 10? 12?

I can stretch things another month (maybe 2) but have to return my lease today so not sure what to do...

Does Tesla monitor this forum at all? Do they even care to help people in situations like this?

No one knows.

Tesla does not care to help in situations like this.

 

[djgarrett21]

I've been renting the past month. My EDD just got pushed out another month. I'm hopeful but who knows. If you have had a 10-14 day window I'd expect you've been assigned a vin.

You've probably already contacted your SA, what do they say? Seems like once you get past the 30-day window you've actually been assigned a vehicle so if it were me I'd hold out a few more weeks.

 

[ultracoop]

I've been renting the past month. My EDD just got pushed out another month. I'm hopeful but who knows. If you have had a 10-14 day window I'd expect you've been assigned a vin.

You've probably already contacted your SA, what do they say? Seems like once you get past the 30-day window you've actually been assigned a vehicle so if it were me I'd hold out a few more weeks.

Have had two 10-14 day windows but now back in a 30 day window. 05/15-06/14 currently. Was 04/22-05/06 until yesterday.

SA never says anything other than "we only know what you know". Wish I had that job, it's like you get paid to just repeat the same sentence over text every 2-3 weeks. Sweet gig!

 

[ATPMSD]

This is partially due to supply chain issues that everyone is having to deal with. But Tesla also does a very bad job in providing realistic EDDs. Whoever manages this within Tesla clearly has no idea what they are doing.

 

[ultracoop]

I totally get the supply chain issues. It's affecting everyone. But it's basic supply chain logistics. You know what your inventory of parts is. You know what the timeline is to actually build the cars. You know how many orders there are and when they were placed.

Isn't this an ENTIRE company full of software engineers??? I'm studying to be one currently and can't possibly imagine employing someone who can't figure this out. And every indication is that Tesla is VERY picky about who they hire so this just infers they are ACTUALLY screwing with people.

 

[DrGriz]

In addition to supply chain, there's transportation logistics to contend with. Availability of a driver for a truck filled with 8 cars to go to a specified city in the country on a given day. This is a huge piece of it. In Boise, they go weeks or maybe even a month without a shipment, then they will get 3 truckloads in a day. Right now this is a big deal.

 

[ultracoop]

Understood, but you could at least inform people that they have a VIN assigned or at least scheduled to be assigned so they can plan their lives? This is a major financial decision that they seem to just brush off like we're all a bunch of millionaires that purchase transportation vehicles on a whim.

 

[Corndart]

Understood, but you could at least inform people that they have a VIN assigned or at least scheduled to be assigned so they can plan their lives? This is a major financial decision that they seem to just brush off like we're all a bunch of millionaires that purchase transportation vehicles on a whim.

Well actually... this needs to be updated again for Y owners but they're likely slightly more well heeled than 3 owners given the price bump. Who knows, speculative statement for sure.

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[DrGriz]

Understood, but you could at least inform people that they have a VIN assigned or at least scheduled to be assigned so they can plan their lives? This is a major financial decision that they seem to just brush off like we're all a bunch of millionaires that purchase transportation vehicles on a whim.

They let you know your VIN is assigned the day your car is being built. They can't do it sooner because things change.

The lesson I have learned in over 9 months now of watching the EDD drama is not to make financial decisions until you have a VIN assignment. Don't set up a trade in or a loan. For those with a lease, yes it is an extra problem.

Yes, it is a pain. But the supply chain issues haven't resolved as expected and a huge number of drivers retired during the pandemic and they have neither come back or been replaced. And look at what's been happening in Texas this week. New supply chain disruptions. Nobody could have known where we would be 6 months ago, and nobody knows yet where we will be 6 months from now. How are fuel prices affecting this and what will happen with the price of oil?

Also, people who put holds on their cars and then took them off for things like Austin and tax credits probably screwed with the EDDs as well.

I do think they want to get old orders off the books and while they prioritize certain builds, I don't think that their fulfillments, once others with your build have been covered, are driven by lower margins. I think it is more logistics. Guess that can be debated but we don't know.

It's painful, but it is not personal and you shouldn't think of it that way. Tesla's goal is to get as many cars to as many people as possible in the shortest time.

 

[ultracoop]

Oh I don't think it's personal. I don't really think Tesla actually cares or thinks about it's customers at all. If you could describe them in a word it would absolutely be 'apathy'.

But yes very frustrating to get a 10 day window, pushed 6 weeks the day before it, pushed another 4 weeks 2 weeks later before updating to a 2 week window and pushed another 4 weeks 3 days before that. No reason it should be that volatile at the 6 month mark.

 

[ATPMSD]

I don't really think Tesla actually cares or thinks about it's customers at all.

Nail on the head, they don’t.

 

[DrGriz]

Oh I don't think it's personal. I don't really think Tesla actually cares or thinks about it's customers at all. If you could describe them in a word it would absolutely be 'apathy'.

But yes very frustrating to get a 10 day window, pushed 6 weeks the day before it, pushed another 4 weeks 2 weeks later before updating to a 2 week window and pushed another 4 weeks 3 days before that. No reason it should be that volatile at the 6 month mark.

It's a corporation. It cares about logistics and sales and profits. McDonalds doesn't care about you either. You are right that there's nobody losing sleep at night over your car but you.

I see you are an October order. I went through all the same sorts of EDD changes you did for my August order, which was finally filled 6 weeks ago.

Ignore the EDD changes and wait until they assign you a VIN. You'll sleep better.

 

[Jones1]

It appears to be all algorithm based. Unless you know someone high up at Tesla. They deliver the most profitable products first. Based off location from the Fremont factory. If your model or trim is available. Due to someone canceling or changing their order. Then you could get a vehicle sooner. Look at how adding FSD can get you a vin assigned in days. It’s a software add on. That cost Tesla nothing extra. All the legacy auto dealers are charging extreme prices. The Pandemic Tax is being charged in everything.

 

[ultracoop]

Well I think a lot of companies DO care about their customers. Tesla just isn't one of them.

Which ironically helps them fit right into the automotive industry.

 

[Jones1]

Maybe small busines. Not a corporation.
capitalism is capitalism

 

[Moopwomp]

I totally get the supply chain issues. It's affecting everyone. But it's basic supply chain logistics. You know what your inventory of parts is. You know what the timeline is to actually build the cars. You know how many orders there are and when they were placed.

Isn't this an ENTIRE company full of software engineers??? I'm studying to be one currently and can't possibly imagine employing someone who can't figure this out. And every indication is that Tesla is VERY picky about who they hire so this just infers they are ACTUALLY screwing with people.

It’s a much harder problem than you imagine. Consider:
- Order holds and cancellations
- Batching of colors/trim in factory production
- Factory delays
- Supply constraints
- Shipping delays
- Random Events (e.g. accidents)
- Dual objectives of lowest cost to Tesla and lowest time to delivery
- Cars leave the factory in groups of 5 that all get delivered to a single location.

Given all these things, even small perturbations to the system could cause wild swings in delivery dates.

 

[OxBrew]

For me there was one step that predicted VIN assignment, back in September: the text for me to confirm that they were planning my delivery for this month, and was I really ready to commit, click HERE (or something like that).

It was end of quarter, so I wanted to try to capitalize on that rush. I sent a second email to my SR along the lines of "hey, is there anything we can do to increase my chances? add or remove hitch, change color, anything? I am REALLY ready to take delivery this month."

I got a VIN the next day. No idea if that helped or not, just guessing maybe I increased some commitment metric by some increment. Totally basic LR, white, with a hitch. I really wanted blue, but they were apparently stuck at the time, almost none making it to the PNW (in LR), from what I could tell.

Had to actually borrow my son's 2004 Forester for a week, and dad's truck a couple times, and ride my bike a lot. Just made it work.

 

[ATPMSD]

Really? Every car dealer has a support number you can call. Every car dealer has a nearby location you can visit to discuss your problems. Every car dealer values customer loyalty.

In Tesla‘s case, unfortunately for us, people are lined up to order their cars inspite of Tesla’s total lack of customer service. Many are in for a rude awakening. Tesla will not change until we see real competition in the EV space. And so, for now, Tesla cars are for people who consider themselves to be early adopters, who are willing to put up with this.

 

[E90alex]

I totally get the supply chain issues. It's affecting everyone. But it's basic supply chain logistics. You know what your inventory of parts is. You know what the timeline is to actually build the cars. You know how many orders there are and when they were placed.

Isn't this an ENTIRE company full of software engineers??? I'm studying to be one currently and can't possibly imagine employing someone who can't figure this out. And every indication is that Tesla is VERY picky about who they hire so this just infers they are ACTUALLY screwing with people.

That’s just it. Usually in auto manufacturing and probably most other manufacturing, there is not a huge inventory of parts on hand. They operate on the “just in time” manufacturing principle where parts arrive at the factory just before they are needed on the assembly line.

Before pandemic times this was a pretty reliable system as not much would severely disrupt that smooth supply of parts. But you can see now how easily supply chain and transportation disruptions will throw a wrench into production schedules.

Nowadays companies may be stockpiling more parts inventory to help buffer such disruptions, but it’s not like they have warehouses full of parts enough to build 50,000 cars sitting there and they’re just screwing with you for the hell of it.