What Surprises Will We See In 2018?

[Patrick0101]

Some things we'll likely see this year:

• Ramping Model 3 production to 5,000 per week
• Standard range Model 3 deliveries
• Dual motor Model 3
• Announcing locations and perhaps even breaking ground on one or two new Gigafactory locations
• Coast to coast autonomous drive
• Solar roof tile deliveries
• Megacharger location deployments
• Sneak peaks of the Roadster 2020 and Semi as they start road testing
• New Tesla mobile app with several new features
• Tesla to be the first automaker to cross the 200,000 US vehicle delivery mark

What else?
Stop sign / Signal light recognition?
Redesigned Model S/X interior?
Flamethrowers

Tesla: What to Expect in 2018

 

[HankLloydRight]

Coast to coast autonomous drive

Yeah, I don't think this will happen. Not without massive disclaimers and exceptions.

 

[Super_Popular]

Not sure what more they can do besides longer and and self driving Tesla can do. They have pretty much hit a wall.

 

[Brovane]

Well will see a refreshed Model S interior/exterior with longer range battery pack based on the Model 3 packs.

This will be kept quiet until release as to not impact current sales. There will be a lot of upset Model S buyers who just missed the refresh.

Some type of equity raise or additional bonds to raise additional cash to provide a cushion. The official reason given wil be because of the slow ramp-up of Model 3 production.

Tesla will achieve regular profitability in the 3rd-4th quarter using standard accouting principles.

Musk will give a future date for his departure from Tesla so he can focus on SpaceX and his Mars ambitions.

Tesla will announce a ramp-up in Supercharger charging rates above 150kw+ but you will need a newer battery pack to take advantage of these speeds.

 

[Patrick0101]

Yeah, I don't think this will happen. Not without massive disclaimers and exceptions.

There certainly is a good chance that this will be delayed into 2019 or later, but Elon has publicly committed to it, so there are many people expecting it. I wonder what odds you could get in Vegas

 

[HankLloydRight]

, but Elon has publicly committed to it,

He also publicly committed to is in 2017??!!

I wonder what odds you could get in Vegas

If there were odds, I'd definitely take that bet!!

 

[Patrick0101]

Not sure what more they can do besides longer and and self driving Tesla can do. They have pretty much hit a wall.

I completely disagree. Tesla is very innovative and has many many ideas. We'll hear some very interesting ideas, that's for sure. We might not see them in a vehicle until 2020+ but there are a lot of things they could do. I really want to know what the "game changing" feature of the Pick Truck will be.

 

[Super_Popular]

I completely disagree. Tesla is very innovative and has many many ideas. We'll hear some very interesting ideas, that's for sure. We might not see them in a vehicle until 2020+ but there are a lot of things they could do. I really want to know what the "game changing" feature of the Pick Truck will be.

What you asked is different than what you are disagreeing with. Yes, 2020+ there will be new cars coming out and whatnot but what more can they do in 2018, that is what you asked.

There is not much more they can do with the X or S except add longer range and a few more options..maybe redesign the exterior and interior.

If you are asking "what's in store in the future for Tesla" then that's what you should ask.

 

[Patrick0101]

Well will see a refreshed Model S interior/exterior with longer range battery pack based on the Model 3 packs.

This will be kept quiet until release as to not impact current sales. There will be a lot of upset Model S buyers who just missed the refresh.

Good one. This is not that different from the AP1 to AP2 change. There were many threads with people moaning about missing the AP2 by a few days/weeks.

Some type of equity raise or additional bonds to raise additional cash to provide a cushion. The official reason given wil be because of the slow ramp-up of Model 3 production.

Seems very likely to me too.

Tesla will achieve regular profitability in the 3rd-4th quarter using standard accouting principles.

Hmmm. They will be spending a lot of money for the new Gigafactory(s) and the Megacharger locations. I don't think they should even try to make profitability a goal in 2018. Today, TSLA investors are looking for topline growth, not profitability IMHO.

Musk will give a future date for his departure from Tesla so he can focus on SpaceX and his Mars ambitions.

Not chance a of anything being publically announced in 2018. They would have to build out the C-suite and have a president and COO in place for at least 2 years before there would be any public statements. So, while I agree, it could happen at some point, they are not in the right place for that in 2018 IMHO.

Tesla will announce a ramp-up in Supercharger charging rates above 150kw+ but you will need a newer battery pack to take advantage of these speeds.

And you think people would be made about the interior redesign. This one would need to be rolled out just right.

 

[Patrick0101]

If you are asking "what's in store in the future for Tesla" then that's what you should ask.

Good point. In 2018 they need to focus on Model 3 and minimize distractions, but that is not the history

 

[Patrick0101]

He also publicly committed to is in 2017??!!

Right, which is why it would not be a shocker to see the demo this year (with caveats as you mentioned).

If there were odds, I'd definitely take that bet!!

Would you take it covering one million to one odds? If so, I have a dollar with your name on it

 

[Brovane]

Hmmm. They will be spending a lot of money for the new Gigafactory(s) and the Megacharger locations. I don't think they should even try to make profitability a goal in 2018. Today, TSLA investors are looking for topline growth, not profitability IMHO.

Musk has said previously that regular production of the Model 3 is required for profitability. If we can assume that the Model 3 hits regular full production of the Model 3 - ~Q2ish then we could see this. I am assuming full production is anything greater than 5k of Model 3 cars a week.

"Making a rare visit to the heart of the U.S. auto industry during the city’s annual auto extravaganza, the Silicon Valley executive said Tesla’s Model 3 will need to be in full production mode by the end of the decade to turn a profit under generally-accepted accounting principles. "

Tesla Won’t Turn Profitable Until 2020

I use this quote to emphasize to critics of Tesla that they are attempting to speed-up the regular production of the Model-3 by 2-years which is very challenging. The profitability of Tesla is linked to the Model 3 achieving regular production. I would expect that Tesla will hit some type of profitability but keep it very marginal as they focus on expansion as you said. However I think it is important for Tesla to demonstrate that they can be profitable on a regular basis. You cannot live on equity raises forever......

And you think people would be made about the interior redesign. This one would need to be rolled out just right.

Tesla could be underselling Model 3’s range and charging capacity, reveals EPA document

I think this will be dependent on the new battery form factor that was installed in the Model-3. The EPA document seems to indicated that the Model-3 is capable of 210kw charging. I would expect that Model S and X with the same battery form factor of the Model-3 to be capable of the same thing or greater with a larger battery. This would create greater separation between the Model S,X and the Model-3. Tesla will also want the press that will go along with delivering a 400+ miles EPA rated EV.

Tesla is deliberately under rating how much of advantage that the new battery format gives the Model-3 over the S and X. Tesla has a difficult dance to keep this as quiet as possible until they can officially roll-out the refresh. Last year somebody asked Musk point blank on Twitter about the X and S getting the 2170 and it has been discussed on this board. Musk denied any planning of a switch-over for the S and X. They will have to switch over at some-point and doing the switch-over when the interior refresh happens seems to be the best choice overall.

 

[Mark Z]

Every Model 3 feature appearing in a future Model S/X seems inevitable.

Having a 500 mile range and an optional Tesla Semi styled charge port for a wished for 5 minute 80% charge is my hope for a 2019 Model S.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Why is nobody mentioning the AR HUD?

Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD

Ye of little faith!

 

[1208]

My predictions.

• S/X nose cone to be the same as 3
• New S/X and interior like Volvo.
• 150kWh battery for S and X.
• Model Y revealed.
• Model Shuttle revealed, a small driverless bus.
• Tesla to acquire other companies.
• Tesla AI to have its own name and become it's own sub company solving problems both tech and world.
• Tesla to research fusion energy.
• Tesla to become like GE or Bosch researching and building other tech.
• Tesla to make cordless power tools as they have the batteries.