Honestly, this is something that concerns me. I suspect Tesla Motors will try to offer three battery capacity options for Model ☰ from the outset. I would hope they learned from Model S that is a bad idea. Because though they expected the majority of their orders would be for the lowest capacity Model S 40... It turned out the opposite was true and the vast majority of buyers got the highest capacity Model S 85. Interestingly, the Model S 60 still got the same approximate amount of interest as they had predicted, while the 40 kWh and 85 kWh flip-flopped. No matter what they do, the highest capacity battery pack WILL be their best seller for the first 18-to-24 months, at least.
So, in my opinion, they should just skip the rigmarole, and just offer one, single, highest capacity from the outset at all trim levels. Sure, that might cut into margins a bit for the base Model ☰, but at least people would actually BUY it. And, more frugal people would probably add options to that anyway, thereby improving profitability.
I'm mostly insane and stuff, so I'd just release the car with a 100 kWh battery pack from the outset. Then, after that 18-to-24 month period, I'd offer a 70 kWh version for a base price between $25,000 and $30,000. My guess is that Tesla Motors will instead have a 60 kWh version at $35,000 and a 90 kWh version at $42,000.