What will happen within the next 6 1/2 weeks?

[Barklikeadog]

Omg these threads are killing me.

Feature complete has a specific meaning /context in the realm of software engineering.

If you are unfamiliar with that, maybe you should refrain from trying to skew the intention of the words coming out of Elons mouth.

The next words out of his mouth were that your car is an appreciating asset that will be part of a million driverless robotaxis in 2020.

so if you want to discuss context....

 

[daniel]

This is nonsense. You really think that auto makers are going to sell cars as L4 and let customers guess wildly where the L4 actually works? ...

No. They'll claim the car is "L4 except under certain conditions," and then every time you try to engage L4 the car will say, "Sorry, Dave. I cannot let you do that." Or more likely, "Automatic driving is not available at this time."

And yes, the conditions will be extremely convoluted.

Except that it will be at least a decade before any self-driving feature moves beyond beta and allows the driver to let go of the wheel and look away from the road. Until then the car will give some warnings (it already does now, which is good) but the driver will be fully responsible for recognizing any problems and taking over when necessary.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Looks like I was wrong, FSD is coming this year!

 

[Missile Toad]

In other words, on January 1, all our cars drive into the nearest body of water ;-)

 

[drip]

FSD sneak preview

My anticipation has anticipation...

 

[DrDabbles]

Looking forward to more games I won't play. Sounds like there's hints of a few other things and some new products, according to Green on Twitter. So that might be exciting.

 

[diplomat33]

View attachment 490467
Looks like I was wrong, FSD is coming this year!

I hope this FSD preview isn't AP3 only because I want it NOW!

But I am definitely looking forward to it. I wonder if the FSD preview is the traffic light response or maybe the "smart park" preview Elon teased a few months back?

 

[alcibiades]

It leaked!

 

[daniel]

What does it mean that there's a sneak preview? Does that mean that the car will show this video on request? Does it mean that for one day all FSD-equipped cars will have driverless operation, and then go back to EAP the next day?

 

[diplomat33]

What does it mean that there's a sneak preview? Does that mean that the car will show this video on request? Does it mean that for one day all FSD-equipped cars will have driverless operation, and then go back to EAP the next day?

Very funny.

Honestly, we don't know at this point.

But I do see several possibilities:
1) @Knightshade in the other thread thinks it is just FSD visualizations. So the sneak peak could just be FSD visualizations like traffic light and stop visualization on the screen. That would constitute a sneak peak without requiring releasing any actual FSD driving features that have not been properly validated yet. Most likely.
2) The sneak peak could just be 1 FSD feature like maybe Smart Park that was teased awhile back. But if they are just now sending it to EA, then it could be awhile before the rest of the fleet gets it. Somewhat less likely IMO.
3) Maybe Tesla is sending what they have so far in development of "feature complete" to early access so that we can see what Tesla has so far in FSD. This would probably include traffic light and stop sign response and some rudimentary turning at intersections. But this would probably require AP3. f this is true, then most of the fleet would not get this. So I think this theory is least likely IMO.

In any case, we should find out soon enough when it leaks from EA.

 

[daniel]

Very funny.

Honestly, we don't know at this point.

But I do see several possibilities:
1) @Knightshade in the other thread thinks it is just FSD visualizations. So the sneak peak could just be FSD visualizations like traffic light and stop visualization on the screen. That would constitute a sneak peak without requiring releasing any actual FSD driving features that have not been properly validated yet. Most likely.
2) The sneak peak could just be 1 FSD feature like maybe Smart Park that was teased awhile back. But if they are just now sending it to EA, then it could be awhile before the rest of the fleet gets it. Somewhat less likely IMO.
3) Maybe Tesla is sending what they have so far in development of "feature complete" to early access so that we can see what Tesla has so far in FSD. This would probably include traffic light and stop sign response and some rudimentary turning at intersections. But this would probably require AP3. f this is true, then most of the fleet would not get this. So I think this theory is least likely IMO.

In any case, we should find out soon enough when it leaks from EA.

Thanks. I really was not trying to be funny. I am honestly baffled by Elon's tweet.

"FSD" visualizations (i.e., the visualizations that would go along with the as-yet nonexistent FSD) seems something they could do, but I'm not sure I'd call that a "sneak peek" at FSD. I can see how Tesla might, but I wouldn't. The car can already park itself, or so I've heard; I've never tried it myself, since the very few times I wanted to, it didn't offer the option. Is "smart park" different than the presently-existing self-park? Stopping at stoplights and stop signs (unreliably: driver still responsible) might be a "sneak peek."

I guess I still think the most likely "sneak peek" will be a movie you can watch on the screen while the car is parked.

I so desperately want to be proved wrong and be able to buy real full self-driving at Level 3 or above. Even if the successful release means I have to pay significantly more for it than at present. As long as it works on the roads I actually drive. Doesn't help me if it only works on freeways. There aren't any freeways here.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

seems something they could do, but I'm not sure I'd call that a "sneak peek" at FSD.

I think extra visualizations in isolation are unlikely too. It’s just way too dangerous to do that. You can’t have people driving around looking at that screen - the visualizations are primarily for passengers and for when you are stationary - they simply aren’t that useful when you are driving the car except as a very brief check from time to time.

Adding more clutter to this without actual self driving functionality would be dangerous since inherently the vehicle would be operating in a more complex environment if you were trying to show the extra city driving visualizations.

I guess it is possible that is exactly what Tesla will do, just seems pretty unsafe.

Eyes on the road, people! These cars don’t drive themselves!

 

[diplomat33]

I guess I still think the most likely "sneak peek" will be a movie you can watch on the screen while the car is parked.

I can definitely see how a video could be a "sneak peak". Like how movies release a teaser or a clip before the actual release of the full movie. But like I said in the other thread, if the sneak peak video was a super informative behind the scenes look of what Tesla is working on, that could be kinda cool maybe. But if the sneak peak video is just another FSD demo that is sped up faster than normal time, that would be kinda lame IMO. The reason I think it would be lame is because Tesla has promised 2 FSD features by the end of this year for months now. So if instead of giving us any promised features, they just gave us another sped up FSD video, that would be lame. Quit giving us FSD marketing videos and give us actual FSD features, Tesla!

It might just be wishing thinking on my part, but I am hoping the sneak peak is an actual FSD feature like traffic light response. After all, they have been working on traffic light response for over a year now so it's about time we get something. And that would at least satisfy one of the FSD features promised on the website.

 

[daniel]

... like I said in the other thread...

I don't browse all the threads because I just don't have time. I check out threads that seem promising from their titles. The result is that I miss a lot, and in particular, I don't know which "other thread" you're referring to. Could you post a link? (Or PM me a link if you don't want to post it?) Sounds like there's interesting conversation there. Thanks.

 

[diplomat33]

I don't browse all the threads because I just don't have time. I check out threads that seem promising from their titles. The result is that I miss a lot, and in particular, I don't know which "other thread" you're referring to. Could you post a link? (Or PM me a link if you don't want to post it?) Sounds like there's interesting conversation there. Thanks.

I was referring to the thread that is directly about the FSD sneak peak, entitled "what is sneak preview of fsd":
What is sneak preview of FSD?

 

[DrDabbles]

The sneak peak could just be 1 FSD feature like maybe Smart Park that was teased awhile back.

Given how poorly smart summon works, smart park seems extremely unlikely. Given the use case is get out and tell the car to go park, where it may not be visible to you at all. That would be a massive acceptance of liability on Tesla's end, for a feature they've just released, in a system they're still calling beta. I just don't see that happening.

Maybe Tesla is sending what they have so far in development of "feature complete" to early access so that we can see what Tesla has so far in FSD.

This, IMO, is less likely than the above. Even worse, if it ends up like smart summon and shows how far Tesla really is from fully self driving cars, it would be an instant drag on share price. Perhaps because I'm an investor, or perhaps because I want to see Tesla offered cheap capital and generous terms to start up new product lines, I don't want them doing anything that would cause the share price to slide. In my opinion, they should just take their lumps at the end of this year, openly accept that self driving cars is still an extremely difficult challenge but that they have the top talent in the field working on it, and don't try to show off anything half baked.

Either way, FSD "preview" is going to be entertaining no matter what it is.

 

[daniel]

I was referring to the thread that is directly about the FSD sneak peak, entitled "what is sneak preview of fsd":
What is sneak preview of FSD?

Thanks. I had not noticed that thread. There are so many sub-forums and MASTER threads that it's easy to miss something interesting.

On the subject of FSD, here's something FSD needs to be able to deal with: You're on a narrow two-lane city street, one lane in each direction. In the approaching lane there's a bicyclist at the edge of the street, where he belongs. Some cars coming up behind him, in the center of their lane, will swerve out to the edge of their lane to give the cyclist more room, and might even cross slightly into yours. An alert driver, seeing a cyclist approaching from the other direction, will anticipate this and move to the far edge of their lane to give oncoming cars space when they move over to pass the cyclist at a safe distance.

This is the kind of thing I disengage EAP for. Will any of today's experimental FSD systems do this?

 

[diplomat33]

Thanks. I had not noticed that thread. There are so many sub-forums and MASTER threads that it's easy to miss something interesting.

On the subject of FSD, here's something FSD needs to be able to deal with: You're on a narrow two-lane city street, one lane in each direction. In the approaching lane there's a bicyclist at the edge of the street, where he belongs. Some cars coming up behind him, in the center of their lane, will swerve out to the edge of their lane to give the cyclist more room, and might even cross slightly into yours. An alert driver, seeing a cyclist approaching from the other direction, will anticipate this and move to the far edge of their lane to give oncoming cars space when they move over to pass the cyclist at a safe distance.

This is the kind of thing I disengage EAP for. Will any of today's experimental FSD systems do this?

Honestly, I don't know for sure. But from what I have seen, Waymo seems to have really good situational awareness of different objects and path prediction. So if Waymo has the driving policy for how to handle this specific driving scenario, then yes, I would think they would be able to handle it.

 

[Daniel in SD]

On the subject of FSD, here's something FSD needs to be able to deal with: You're on a narrow two-lane city street, one lane in each direction. In the approaching lane there's a bicyclist at the edge of the street, where he belongs. Some cars coming up behind him, in the center of their lane, will swerve out to the edge of their lane to give the cyclist more room, and might even cross slightly into yours. An alert driver, seeing a cyclist approaching from the other direction, will anticipate this and move to the far edge of their lane to give oncoming cars space when they move over to pass the cyclist at a safe distance.

This is the kind of thing I disengage EAP for. Will any of today's experimental FSD systems do this?

I've seen this talked about it some presentations. The car must not only predict the actions of other other road users but also predict how those actions will change the actions of other road users. Here is something similar in a Waymo video. The car predicts that a cyclist will go around a truck parked in the bicycle lane.

 

[thewishmaster]

I've seen this talked about it some presentations. The car must not only predict the actions of other other road users but also predict how those actions will change the actions of other road users. Here is something similar in a Waymo video. The car predicts that a cyclist will go around a truck parked in the bicycle lane.

Yeah, typically this is done by modeling some likely trajectories for other actors based on the likelihood of each predicted trajectory, e.g. "most likely this bike will encounter an obstacle and will need to take trajectory X instead of trajectory Y", and then reacting to the predicted state of the world

I don't think we have much of this today, other than cut-in detection which also seems to be done with NNs rather than procedurally. Definitely curious to see how Tesla tackles this - more NNs trained for predicting the behavior of each major type of road user (e.g. anything we see projected on the screen today)?

We'll need this for "feature complete FSD", but outside of city driving I'm looking forward to these features improving subtle driving behaviors like not slowing down too much when a car makes a left turn up ahead or when cars move out of your lane, improved pedestrian detection, better behavior around motorcycles/bicycles, and so on.