What will never be included in FSD?

[SergeyUser]

So did anyone notice that FSD definition was gradually reduced from practically Level 5 autonomy (yes, Tesla never said that, but I assume many were seriously thinking it will be something close) to 'you can drive everywhere from A to B under supervision' now with a list of quite specific features?

It came to me that this is a clear road to add future features beyond that, while claiming that 'well, it was not on the feature list as we define it'. Obviously, there will be some future changes, but I think the fact that FSD has clear feature set is a pre-cursor for 'FSD+' to appear some time in the future.

What do you guys think? What will be in the category above 'Tesla FSD' on but obviously within the limits of Level 5 autonomy?

My guesses will be something like parking in multi-parking garages without me directing Tesla to park. We will see, but I bet it will eventually happen.

It would be more fair of Tesla to charge this as a subscription, Software-as-a-Service basically, instead of trying to bundle things into new 'features' like EAP, FSD 1.0 (let's call it that). This will reflect the fact there it will take 10+ years to achieve anything close to a real Level 5 autonomy.

 

[Knightshade]

Mostly I think I'm happy I paid for FSD when it listed the full autonomy stuff, as I expect to get any needed future HW upgrades free (as HW3 will be) in case they turn out to be needed.

Folks jumping on the FSD train after today are only guaranteed the stuff on the new description (which HW3 by itself likely handles)

 

[Az_Rael]

Mostly I think I'm happy I paid for FSD when it listed the full autonomy stuff, as I expect to get any needed future HW upgrades free (as HW3 will be) in case they turn out to be needed.

Folks jumping on the FSD train after today are only guaranteed the stuff on the new description (which HW3 by itself likely handles)

I doubt any of us early FSD buyers will get anything more than what is currently listed. Moving goalposts is par for the course at Tesla. So, traffic lights, stop signs and city streets.

I probably wouldn’t have ponied up the extra $$, I was more interested in Level 3 highway stuff (no nags). Ah well.

 

[SergeyUser]

Knightshade,

It will be the same FSD for all ))) Just price may be different. But like I said, Tesla will not be able to bring substantially better autonomy for just 5-8k. Google have spent billions on R&D (we can question how efficient this spending was, but at least their cars can recognize hand gestures from road participants), so obviously Tesla is limited by economical factors - they have to match revenue from EAP/FSD to their R&D spending.

This have happened in the past. Let's sell Supercharging for 2k$, and later - no, this is too expensive, we have to unbundle that. So this is why I'm saying there is no choice for Tesla other than to a. Fix features for FSD 1.0. b. Convert this into a subscription, when recurring revenue will support continuous R&D.

Sergey

 

[banned-66611]

So did anyone notice that FSD definition was gradually reduced from practically Level 5 autonomy (yes, Tesla never said that, but I assume many were seriously thinking it will be something close)

They did say that. They said you would be able to summon from the other side of the country, and the car would drive to you, charging and presumably cleaning itself along the way as necessary.

You are correct. This announcement is a roll-back on that promise. They are not describing level 2 as "autonomous driving".

I predict a lot of red light running accidents.

 

[ewoodrick]

I think that it is stated as such to keep the lawsuits from occurring, the same reason it was pulled originally.

 

[banned-66611]

I think that it is stated as such to keep the lawsuits from occurring, the same reason it was pulled originally.

Problem is they have been selling it as that for years. You have cars from 2016 that are still waiting for their cross-country summon feature.

It's going to end up in court, no doubt.

 

[mongo]

So did anyone notice that FSD definition was gradually reduced from practically Level 5 autonomy (yes, Tesla never said that, but I assume many were seriously thinking it will be something close) to 'you can drive everywhere from A to B under supervision' now with a list of quite specific features?

It came to me that this is a clear road to add future features beyond that, while claiming that 'well, it was not on the feature list as we define it'. Obviously, there will be some future changes, but I think the fact that FSD has clear feature set is a pre-cursor for 'FSD+' to appear some time in the future.

What do you guys think? What will be in the category above 'Tesla FSD' on but obviously within the limits of Level 5 autonomy?

My guesses will be something like parking in multi-parking garages without me directing Tesla to park. We will see, but I bet it will eventually happen.

It would be more fair of Tesla to charge this as a subscription, Software-as-a-Service basically, instead of trying to bundle things into new 'features' like EAP, FSD 1.0 (let's call it that). This will reflect the fact there it will take 10+ years to achieve anything close to a real Level 5 autonomy.

They updated the text to indicate what is available now (bold) vs later (underlined). I doubt they will create a separate tier of FSD+.

The currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. The activation and use of these features are dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As these self-driving features evolve, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates.

Elon's ARK podcast called out being able to sleep in your (moving) car in 2020ish (which is at his 2 year out guess limit, so grain of salt).

 

[SergeyUser]

They did say that. They said you would be able to summon from the other side of the country, and the car would drive to you, charging and presumably cleaning itself along the way as necessary.

They never said you will be able to do that without paying extra for an extra set of feature(s), or even with your current car.

They updated the text to indicate what is available now (bold) vs later (underlined). I doubt they will create a separate tier of FSD+.

This is what I'm saying, they will definitely do that (introduce future FSD, not necessarily with a different name). Otherwise, why would you list features at all? Just say 'we will update cars to the best of our abilities to as close as possible to achieve Level 5 autonomy, for as long as you have your car.'

Elon's ARK podcast called out being able to sleep in your (moving) car in 2020ish (which is at his 2 year out guess limit, so grain of salt).

Again, this does not imply you will be able to do that with current cars or without paying extra. I do believe 2020 will still be covered with current FSD pricing, they are unlikely to develop enough stuff to justify not yet listed features. But will happen eventually. Probably using some excuse like 'old cars are not supported, new hardware is difficult to put into old cars, just buy a new one, etc.'.

 

[mongo]

They never said you will be able to do that without paying extra for an extra set of feature(s), or even with your current car.



This is what I'm saying, they will definitely do that (introduce future FSD, not necessarily with a different name). Otherwise, why would you list features at all? Just say 'we will update cars to the best of our abilities to as close as possible to achieve Level 5 autonomy, for as long as you have your car.'



Again, this does not imply you will be able to do that with current cars or without paying extra. I do believe 2020 will still be covered with current FSD pricing, they are unlikely to develop enough stuff to justify not yet listed features. But will happen eventually. Probably using some excuse like 'old cars are not supported, new hardware is difficult to put into old cars, just buy a new one, etc.'.

You are making an assumption about their plan (3rd tier for FSD), and then saying that it could be their plan because they haven't specifically said they aren't going to do that. Do you have any data to support your 3rd tier FSD+ proposal?

 

[SergeyUser]

You are making an assumption about their plan (3rd tier for FSD), and then saying that it could be their plan because they haven't specifically said they aren't going to do that. Do you have any data to support your 3rd tier FSD+ proposal?

My evidence is indirect:
1. Reduction of functionality for an earlier-promised features;
2. Economics in general, and how product development works. You either charge for a service on a regular basis or sell certain features and then sell a new version. Yes, there is 'future improvement', but this is because of Tesla is selling a product before it is released. This is still limited in time.
3. VERY limited set of features listed in FSD. I mean, I don't believe it is 3-5 features in their list. There is huge potential to promote what future autonomy can do. Why not list, I mean, maybe 7-10 features? Again, this is indirect, but I see this as a proof they are not listing what other corner cases/scenarios they consider as a future set of features.

I will post in this thread once such first feature will be known. This is obviously not the time for Tesla to mention that, they are selling current FSD.

So it is not 'they said that' kind of thing. It is more 'there is no choice for them rather than do it that way' kind of thing, for economical reasons. Autonomy is much bigger issue, economically, than 2k per car for unlimited Supercharging.

 

[mongo]

My evidence is indirect:
1. Reduction of functionality for an earlier-promised features;
2. Economics in general, and how product development works. You either charge for a service on a regular basis or sell certain features and then sell a new version. Yes, there is 'future improvement', but this is because of Tesla is selling a product before it is released. This is still limited in time.
3. VERY limited set of features listed in FSD. I mean, I don't believe it is 3-5 features in their list. There is huge potential to promote what future autonomy can do. Why not list, I mean, maybe 7-10 features? Again, this is indirect, but I see this as a proof they are not listing what other corner cases/scenarios they consider as a future set of features.

I will post in this thread once such first feature will be known. This is obviously not the time for Tesla to mention that, they are selling current FSD.

So it is not 'they said that' kind of thing. It is more 'there is no choice for them rather than do it that way' kind of thing, for economical reasons. Autonomy is much bigger issue, economically, than 2k per car for unlimited Supercharging.

Gotcha, I think it's more an alignment of the short range targets vs long range. Economics wise, they can sell AP/FSD on every car they make, so they have a continual income stream, no need to re-charge previous purchasers for an upgrade...

 

[SergeyUser]

They have to eventually cut off older cars. FSD is Level 4 at max, maybe even less.

 

[mongo]

They have to eventually cut off older cars. FSD is Level 4 at max, maybe even less.

Other than the new blue sensor, AP2 cameras are the same as current HW and Tesla has HW3 version for S, X, and 3.
AP1 was ended before EAP/FSD came out. What older cars are you taking about?

(S/X do lack the redundant steering power sources)

 

[trm2]

You know, the only reason they called it FSD was because they figured that the acronym for Part Time Self Driving wouldn't go over well.

 

[SergeyUser]

New Other than the new blue sensor, AP2 cameras are the same as current HW and Tesla has HW3 version for S, X, and 3.
AP1 was ended before EAP/FSD came out. What older cars are you taking about?

(S/X do lack the redundant steering power sources)

I mean current cars. They will eventually change hardware in some way, beyond what they call HW3.0. Current cars will therefore become old and a burden to the current team. I don't think current FSD cost includes more than one hardware upgrade (except for critical issues).

 

[SergeyUser]

You know, the only reason they called it FSD was because they figured that the acronym for Part Time Self Driving wouldn't go over well.

They also didn't call it 'Level 4 autonomy', because you can't change definition of something not defined by Tesla. But if you invent your own feature and call it FSD, there is flexibility to change what is included.

 

[Knightshade]

I mean current cars. They will eventually change hardware in some way, beyond what they call HW3.0. Current cars will therefore become old and a burden to the current team. I don't think current FSD cost includes more than one hardware upgrade (except for critical issues).

It includes whatever is needed to achieve FSD as promised at time of purchase. They said back during the 2->2.5 upgrade they'd upgrade cars to 2.5 if THAT turned out to be the point HW mattered too. 3 is the first time it really does though.

 

[SergeyUser]

Tesla defines what FSD means. Which they clarified (a bit) just yesterday. So there is no way to really hold them accoubtable for anything. It will keep matter more and more in the future. Keep in mind it is not only about features, but also reliability. So FSD is double-redundant. Would that be enough? Maybe. Would you pay more to, say, increase reliability from 99.9% to 99.99%? I guess many will. SpaceX rockets are triple-redundant, I would want the same.

And here are other considerations. Say, car crashes, and computer is unable to open doors (I’m referring to recent Florida incident). At some point engineers will realize they have to put these systems apart for extra safety (I mean physically, say at the front and at the back of a car), and this will increase safety under extreme conditions. All these extra 99s will require a lot of engineering, both SW and HW. It is a very long road between L4 and L5.

 

[pitabun]

Bought FSD because of their marketing video. Didn’t even lay a hand on the steering wheel on ‘city streets’.

Not okay with anything less with regulatory approval.