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What's your stock portfolio look like right now?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by stealthology, Mar 4, 2014.

  1. stealthology

    stealthology Member

    Jan 24, 2013
    Hi all,

    I've made a good amount of money with Tesla in part because of TMC, and I have a desire to share and discuss companies with big picture thinking, like-minded people. I thought it would be interesting for the community here to share their perspectives on companies we believe in and are invested in. In no means are we trying to give serious financial advice in this thread, or seek investment advice. Your own due diligence, familiarity with the industry, and gut instincts should be the major factors in your investment decisions. Commentary on your stocks are optional. I kinda used this post to centralize some of my notes, so it does get a tad bit lengthy, especially with Apple.

    My Holdings:
    • Tesla - Not much needs to be said here, it's my largest position by a good margin, and I'll be holding my core position for the long term. Cost basis is at $34, I trimmed 15-25% a few times since then, also picked up some LEAPS last year. I'll be holding my core position for the long term, and will be buying in pre-defined levels on all dips. Tesla still has a few years before it truly defines itself.
    • Facebook - Best play on mobile ads, and I feel pretty strongly that they can keep this type of growth up for a little while; the growth is basically all thanks Facebook's ability to monetize on their mobile app. Zuckerberg wrote a few months ago that his desire to really get serious about generating more revenues was based in part because of top talent leaving his company because of the poor stock performance. Simply put, advertisers are willing to spend more to advertise on Facebook mobile than they ever were for those sidebar text ads for desktop. In my opinion, the mobile ads in the newsfeed are very well integrated and unobtrusive, and most importantly, many of the ads actually get my attention (targeted advertising). Facebook's revenue growth on mobile has been crazy over the past 5-6 quarters. Autoplay video ads are one major catalyst to hold this for; they've been experimenting with them for a while, and it seems highly likely they will launch it sitewide soon-- these are highly unobtrusive compared to other video ads you encounter online which force your attention for 10-30 seconds. Personally, these lengthy video ads really piss me off. Even if it's content I really want to read or watch, I'll close it out if they require me to watch a 30 second ad beforehand. For the Facebook autoplay video ads, they look like just any other newsfeed item, and you can scroll right past them in the newsfeed if desired, without the video playing audio or becoming fullscreen. You can tap the ad in order to enable fullscreen mode and sound. I must admit, I've actually genuinely wanted to click on some of the ads, and I have. I can't say that about too many other ads I come across online. I also have very high confidence that WhatsApp will cross the 1 billion active user mark before much longer, driven by growth internationally. I would say it has some major sticking power at least for the next 5-10 years. Their growth chart is here, and is pretty ridiculous. For people even roughly affiliated with the industry, the consensus has been that this was not a stupid move by Zuckerberg.
    • Yelp - I actually haven't done much research on the stock, but I use Yelp all the time. I have a small position which I started about a month ago. Really wish I had gotten in earlier (kind of like NFLX, P, SCTY, etc).
    • Apple - I feel like the mainstream perception of Apple right now is that innovation left when Jobs had to step down. And now they're the next Microsoft. I was actually an Apple bear until mid last year, as I was using Nokia's flagship Lumia 920 for 8 months prior. I think the back half of this year will generate some real investor enthusiasm for Apple. The much needed larger screen iPhone is coming this year, and it seems highly likely that their "iwatch" will be released by the end of this year.
      • The 'iWatch' would not only be a 'companion' device to the iphone, but will also focus heavily on health sensors and biometrics, to be able to track metrics such as heart rate, blood pressure, glucose levels, sleep quality, movement, etc. Apple met with the FDA back in December to discuss 'mobile medical applications', and they have something dubbed 'Healthbook' which will track personal health metrics in iOS8. It's also rumored that it could have some home automation features, such as the ability to control your home's heating/cooling, lights, audio, video. It should have a durable sapphire glass screen, and come in multiple sizes. The NYT's reported last month that it could use solar power and wireless charging.
      • During Apple's last conference call in late January, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray asked Cooke straight up whether there will be any new product categories released by the end of 2014, in which Cooke responded "Yes, absolutely. No change". The conference call before that, Cooke stated he sees significant opportunities in current product categories and new ones, and said they'd be rolled out "across 2014".
      • Apple bought back $14 billion worth of shares in the two week period following their most recent earnings report, when their shares dropped by 10%.
      • Apple increased their R&D in 2013 by 32%.
      • Apple outspent Google in acquisitions in 2013.
      • Earlier this year it was reported that Apple has been building up a mobile payments division. Cooke said just over a month ago that mobile payments was an area that investors wouldn't be foolish to expect that Apple move in to. My guess is either this or next year they'll unveil their mobile payment processing solution. They'll be partnering with big box retailers and allow customers to potentially pay without needing their wallet, with very minimal or no human interaction during checkout. Biometric security, according to Cooke, is a big reason they can do this. Apple stores are already doing this with iBeacon. Keep in mind Apple has ~600 million accounts, most of which are linked to a credit card. Amazon, the behemoth in e-commerce, has 224 million accounts. Also keep in mind Apple has mysteriously removed all cryptocurrency/Bitcoin exchange/trading apps from their app store.. conflict of interest for Apple?
      • An updated Apple TV is extremely likely for the early half of this year, and will likely include a revamped user interface and and a possible entry into the video game market with bluetooth controller support. Apple has also reportedly been in negotiations with Time Warner Cable and other partners to add live and recording programming content. Apple has roughly doubled its Apple TV sales from 5 million units in 2012 to 10 million in 2013. An Apple TV set (hardware made by Apple) is rumored to eventually be released by Apple, but probably not until 2015 earliest.
    • AMC - This just IPO'ed in December, and I just bought in a couple days ago. Wanda Group, a Chinese conglomerate, bought them out in 2012 for $2.6 billion. At today's market cap, they've valued at ~$2.2 billion. Shortly after the purchase, AMC become profitable. AMC's theaters have been around forever as most of you know, and the new management has initiated a major turnaround effort, and I believe in it 100%. They've already recently renovated 28 theater locations with plush, electric recliners which allow you to FULLY recline back. 66% of seating is lost, but so far attendance in these renovated theaters have gone up an average of 91%. 65 theaters are currently under renovation. They've also recently opened 45 MacGuffins Bar and Lounges on site, serving beer, wine, and liquor, including movie themed drinks. 23 of these locations are under construction and will open in the next 12 months. They're also beginning to sell less of the traditional popcorn/soda, and more hot foods, healthy foods, espresso drinks, smoothies, etc. They're expanding their dine in theaters (eat dinner/have a couple drinks during the movie) from 11 to 31 within 5 years. Their CEO, Gerry Lopez, was an executive VP of Starbucks and President of its Global Consumer Products before coming to AMC in 2009. Just last week, Fast Company included AMC into their Top 10 Most Innovative Companies in Hollywood, where Lopez was quoted: "At AMC, we challenge ourselves to be the initiators and not the followers."
    • ANGI (short) - will continue to short ANGI on all pops nearing $20. Their business really sucks.
    • TMUS - I have a small play position in T-Mobile. I love how they've disrupted the two main wireless carriers, forcing AT&T and Verizon to change. After having a net loss in customers in Q412, new CEO John Lejere has led the company to 869,000 net customer additions in Q313, and 1.6 million net new additions in Q413. The real question is, is this a legitimate, sustainable growth story, or are they just going all out to try and get bought out. Sprint is doing all they possibly can to convince the US that it should be allowed to merge with them. Personally, I don't see a problem with #3 and #4 merging.. it will provide some real competition for the big two.

    On my radar: Potbelly's (PBPB), Trulia (TRLA), shorts on Twitter and JCP. If there was a way for me to invest in Uber or Airbnb, I'd be buying a ton of both. Talk about industry disruptors.
  2. CaptainKirk

    CaptainKirk Member

    Feb 6, 2014
    Newer member on the forum here but actually a lurker for some time. Glad to be a member of a forum where members are able to discuss issues maturely.

    My core holdings:
    • Pfizer - I work in healthcare, so when I found out that Pfizer was dividing their reporting into 3 separate divisions I thought about what that meant. GenMed is the generic division of Pfizer leading to some analysts thinking about spinning off the division in the future. Others were suggesting that Pfizer would crash and burn if they were to try and compete with Teva, Mylan and Apotex head on. What the GenMed division is there to do in my eyes is to actually stem the bleeding from generic competition for off-patient Pfizer molecules. The advantage is that they are using spare capacity in their supply chain because it's essentially the same pill with different tablet stamping in a different bottle. In addition it's always better to make less money from your own best selling generic than to lose that business entirely. It's clear that they are being very selective in which molecules are currently being offered as generic as shown by which lists molecules that are available in Canada. It's also evident that Pfizer is highly committed to quality even in their generic division. Here in Canada we have a LOT of recalls all the time from the other generic manufacturers, so the more recalls that happen, the more it will drive patients towards branded products. Actually, many of the large Rx&D pharmaceutical manufacturers also promote patient support cards that will pay for the difference between generic and brand name products. See and . It will be interesting to see how this all plays out, but if I were to own a pharma stock, it's Pfizer.
    • TD Bank - Out of all the Canadian Banks, I prefer this one. Highly customer service oriented and knowledgeable staff. Just took over a chunk of CIBC's Aeroplan portfolio. It appears well diversified worldwide especially in the U.S. with TD Ameritrade. I'll probably get more when it dips on housing concerns and overreaction in the Canadian stock market. I personally think that housing is due for a correction or prolonged stagnation of home prices - there's just no way our economy can justify these high housing valuations. Not looking to debate this point, everyone will have their own opinion on housing, but let's just say I'd rather jump into TSLA at ATH rather than housing at this point
    • Husky, Enbridge Income Fund, Bell Canada and a couple others make up my main holdings in Canadian Margin because of the dividend tax credit here.
    • Redknee Solutions - a billing solutions provider that counts many worldwide telecoms are clients. If you've ever called in for your cell phone or cable bill and noticed that the customer service rep was able to tell you in real-time how much changes would cost, this is the company that made it possible. I've trimmed quite a bit of my holding since it's been such a high-flier this past year. Recently had another round of offering valuing each share at $5.85, I will probably look to buy some more if it dips a bit, a pure fun money play for me at this point.
  3. Intl Professor

    Intl Professor Active Member

    May 17, 2013
    I have until recently a pretty dismal record as an investor. In 1964 after the shambles of a divorce, I had about $2,000 of McDonalds which was promptly sold to finance a trip to Europe for the first time. I retired in 2001 and have invested ever since, first by following the Motley Fool. Their best recommendation was Baidu so I purchased 50 shares at $86. It was split 10:1 and is now up about twenty times my original investment. Recently I rolled over a 401K which was earning a paltry 3% a year. My strategy is to look for good bets in China which for all its human rights horrors and corruption, is much better managed than the U.S. I can't understand why a political party would deliberately slow down the economy to embarrass the President. What we are going through must be similar to Mao's cultural revolution. Ctrip and a few others have been helpful, but not as much as the Chinese Google.

    One of my colleagues is very sharp and an expert in Asian economies. He says Singapore is the best run economy in the world, but I have no means of evaluating stocks there. I have made money and have high hopes for GTAT which, among other things, makes industrial grade sapphire and will soon open a plant to produce covers for the next iPhone, I guess as a substitute for gorilla glass. Corning grew will on this, but I had too little money to invest. Tesla roadster's 300 mile battery range and super acceleration stimulated interest in the company. On average, I purchased a total of 849 shares at an average cost of $29.90, but foolishly sold 40 shares at $205 when it reached, for me, a nose-bleed high. I tried this strategy once before and made the equivalent of a measly 9 shares within a Roth Ira. I'll never do it again, though some money is not sitting idle until the stock goes down to 170 or so. (I'm a little uncertain about this, to put it mildly.) Now Tesla is also my largest investment. A big loser, PBR, is now down over 50%, but I'm buying smidgens (a unit of measurement, not a stock) now because it may be going back up. Brazil has a lot of oil, more stringent safety standards than we (backup seismic well-caps, as do the Norwegians, which we don't require--might have helped BP). Another big loser was Suntech, once the largest supplier of solar panels. My other solar investments include SCTY which I would have bought at the IPO but Schwab wouldn't let me because I lied about my intentions, growth, rather than speculation. Schwab now has a way to track my portfolios, back to 1-1-09. Over the 62 months we are up 43% per annum.

    I went to see a Schwab broker who was appalled to see the risk I'm taking with Tesla. Their gurus give it an F rating. He strenuously argued against individual stocks and individual investing. One argument he gave was the enormous time it takes for an individual. I hear that, but since my Thai-born wife accurately describes me as an "extinguished professor," what is a mother to do? I din't think to ask him how I could do better with their advice. I just hope I can change my modus operandi when I pee even more into my pants. My wife has karate-style elbows which keep me in line in public, so I trust she will retire me from individual investing if I don't reach that conclusion myself. (She already does now, in so many ways, but it has been ten years + of heaven.)

    I almost forgot my secret weapon: my mother-in-law, who is a good 15 years my junior. She buys bags of rice, totes them on the tiniest bus you can imagine from the nearest municipality, and then on her prediluvian bicycle from the bus stop home to be sold in small packages to a hundred or so villagers. Though illiterate, she keeps in her head all the sales, markups, and loans for purchase later, in her head. And she cannot understand why I with a Ph.D. and an M.I.T degree in engineering, don't speak Lao, Thai, Mandarin, Burmese, and her native tribal language.

    But the secret: she tambuns (preys with offering of goodies for the monks at temple) with Buddha my behalf for luck in the stock market. Works so far.
  4. NuclearPowered

    May 17, 2012
    35% NYMT
    35% TSLA
    8% GTAT
    7% BlackRock Value Opportunities Fund Institutional Shares
    15% Short Term Trading and Options
  5. Clprenz

    Clprenz Member

    Jan 22, 2013
    Bloomington, Illinois, United States
    With all the accounts I manage I continue to hold these:
    TSLA - Long term and short term plays - continues to be a big part of my portfolio
    CSIQ - Long term plays - has lots of growth ahead of itself this year
    KNDI - Nice play in china and their EV market
    GM - Short term play on their growth for this year specifically, nice safe stock - don't like a long term play past this year
    SCTY - Nice Super long solar finance play
    SLNN - Building a Tesla Model S variant that may bring in some significant money.
    Other solars are fun to play with too

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