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When can I break even?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by aja2460, Jan 20, 2018.

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  1. aja2460

    aja2460 Old Member

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    I'm able to place my order for my Model 3 any time now.
    My question is if I pay $60,500 for my car (35K base, plus 9K for extended range, plus 5K for premium upgrades, plus 1k for paint, plus 5K for autopilot, plus 5.5K taxes) less 7.5K tax credit, for a total of $53,000, how long do you think that I can own it and sell it for the amount that I have into it.
    I'm a 1000 mile a month kind of guy and take pretty good care of my cars.
    Not wanting to make a profit on the car or the tax credit. Just want to break even.
    Not possible? one month? three months, six months?
    Curious
     
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  2. bmms8

    bmms8 Member

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    Lol not possible imo. But there are buyers for everything out there
     
  3. Arpe

    Arpe Member

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    For a start watch this:
     
    • Informative x 1
  4. jsmay311

    jsmay311 Member

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    Just A WAG, but I'd guess 0-3 months, maybe. Tough to say with any confidence. There's really no precedent for a used car market in which there are hundreds of thousands of people waiting "in line" to buy a new one. Throw in the tax credit and a bunch of uncertainty over production schedules and it complicates things even further.

    For reference, the guy that did the Cannonball Run in his Model 3 fetched $57,100. It had 4,547 miles on it. But it was also famous. :D

    https://m.ebay.com/itm/2017-Tesla-Model-3-Long-Range-Premium-Upgrade-Package-/292396825634
     
  5. insaneoctane

    insaneoctane Active Member

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    It's possible. Does not seem likely. The Model 3 market does not appear to be willing to pay premiums. Likely because everyone has already waited 2 years, so what's another few months? Plus there is not a lot of markup room on a $35K that is already marked up by Tesla to $60K....
     
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  6. C141medic

    C141medic Active Member

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    You do know that cars depreciate? Unless of course you have a “classic” or another very specialized vehicle. Then you can expect the value of the vehicle to go up. Tesla’s are great vehicles but I can’t imagine that the M3 will appreciate in value after purchase. Take a look at the value of used Model S’s. There’s no such thing as “breaking even” when you resell.
     
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  7. Saghost

    Saghost Well-Known Member

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    Aside from rare collectable vehicles, I think the only time something like this has happened for large numbers of cars was in 2008, when the gas prices spiked and used Priuses were briefly trading for more than their original new price because there weren't enough of them around. Absent a radical event like that, I doubt it'll happen. New cars are one of the worst investments possible - even a Tesla.
     
    • Like x 1
  8. SageBrush

    SageBrush 2018: Drain the Sewer

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    #9 SageBrush, Jan 20, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2018
    Let me rephrase OP's question for him:
    "How long can I drive a Model 3 for free ? "

    Free to OP is ~ $,5000 extra for a used car for the buyer because of sales tax. When the expected wait time is a month or three.
     
  9. seattlite2004

    seattlite2004 Member

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    If you buy it soon, you'll cut your sales tax bill by over half since $32K of the price of the car is tax free in WA state.
     
  10. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner / Current original Leaf owner

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    Never. It's a $60k car that will lose 30% of it's value almost right after you buy it... Like most cars. It's worse with EVs because of tax credit.

    Buy it because you want the car. It's not a smart investment.
     
    • Like x 3
  11. insaneoctane

    insaneoctane Active Member

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    To be realistic, I don't think that the Model 3 market has stabilized enough to answer your question without pure speculation. My seat of the pants guess is the demand for this car will remain strong and the supply will be limited that you might get free or close to free for 3 to 6 months from today. YMMV.
     
  12. Kandiru

    Kandiru Member

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    OP don't do this. You have to wait until AWD becomes available, or you will have problems in snow.
     
  13. whitex

    whitex Active Member

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    In Seattle area?
     
  14. whitex

    whitex Active Member

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    You could break even on a Model 3 in more than 3 months. Say you wait ~110 years or so, then one of the first Model 3's could very well be a collector's item. Inflation alone should take car of it. Consider the Model T (Ford) - if you had one in pristine condition today, you could definitely sell it for more money that was it's retail price in 1908 which was $835. Just like the Model 3, the first one was premium only, by 1916 the MSRP dropped to $345. Whichever one you bought back then, if you kept is in good condition, you could sell it for more today. :p
     
  15. jsmay311

    jsmay311 Member

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    That may be true if you got your reservation 21 months ago. If not, that's nowhere near true.

    Key to this whole proposition is that many people who don't already have a reservation will have to wait until after the tax credit is reduced before they are able to buy a new TM3, so that should increase how much those folks are willing to pay for a slightly-used one.
     
    • Funny x 1
  16. SageBrush

    SageBrush 2018: Drain the Sewer

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    The problem I think with that notion is it presumes that people who are inclined to jump at the Model 3 were living under a rock 21 months ago.
     

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