When will Model 3 be upgraded to giga casting?

[yepeekai]

I'm speculating here but here are some "facts" that I read here and there.
Giga Texas will begin production of the Model Y in October potentially with 2170 batteries.
2170 batteries production is at full capacity (or mostly) at giga Nevada
4680 batteries will be produced at giga Texas probably before the end of this year... more an estimate than a fact
Chip shortage will not be resolved or improved drastically over the next year.
Model3 SR+ is beginning to use LFP batteries in Canada and potentially in US in the "near" future

Considering all that, new production capacity from Giga Texas will result in a ramp down of production in Fremont due to chips shortage and potentially batteries shortage (Total north american capacity being limited). So once ramp up at giga Texas is high enough, it would make sense to shut down production lines at Fremont to upgrade to giga casting Model 3 since they can't easily increase production due to things that aren't under Tesla control or need time to solve. Does it make sense? If yes, it would mean that this could happen at the end of this year which would also explain why the model 3 went from November delivery to January delivery directly, skipping December. Would there be an overlap having Model 3 with the current design and Model 3 with giga casting?

So in a perfect world, it would mean that Model 3 would be on par with Model Y next summer excluding 4680 batteries that will be on Model Y only for a while...

 

[UncertainTimes]

2 weeks

 

[vjason]

I think new things have priority over major engineering changes to current models. They really need to get the cybertruck out (not to mention the roadster and semi).

Changing 3 manufacturing doesn't get them much when the Y is selling so well, and lots of folks want a truck.

 

[JJHawk]

Model3 SR+ is beginning to use LFP batteries in Canada and potentially in US in the "near" future

This has not happened yet - all the deliveries this month are still on the NCA battery type. (Source -> I just picked up a SR+ in Canada this week)

 

[Jeremy3292]

2023+

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

I expect that the Model 3 will get a completely new chassis in 2024 and will be fully committed to gigacastings and structurally-critical 4680's. It's just too old of a chassis to justify expensive retrofits at this stage so they will wait for the inevitable clean-slate redesign like most automakers do every 6-8 years.

The Model Y is different because it was designed with castings in mind right from the start and the latest castings have surely been designed with 4680's in mind. They want to keep 2170's as an option and the Y center frame is already self-supporting so the 4680's might not be as structurally integrated as possible just yet.

The Plaid was supposed to bring 4680's to the street but it looks like that'll have to be up to the Texan Model Y now. The Model 2(?) will likely be the first to hit the (Chinese) streets with a truly 4680-dependent chassis, followed by CT, Roadster, and then finally the 2024 Model 3.

Imagine the insane number of Model Y's that are going to be sold in the next few years as all these factories come online, then triple that number to include the Model 2 sales, then add in the million Cybertrucks that are already reserved, plus all the other cars, semis, and powerwalls and you'll see why the line for castings and 4680's is very long and why the Model 3 is at the end of that line.

 

[holeydonut]

I'd rather Tesla offer more colors than some giga-casting. 5 colors = lame.