When will we know the specs for the P-AWD Model 3?

[SageBrush]

I was spitting out an off the cuff thought. Frankly I don't have a clue how each person will fall and I can't claim to know that. If you have a counter thought I would be more than happy to read it.

I wrote a starting analysis above. Depending on filing status and dependents it takes as little as $61,000 wages to reach $7,500 federal tax, and mid $70's with the cost of up to two dependents. After tax income can be as low as $4,000 a month and not much more than $5,000 a month with two dependents.

It does not surprise me at all to hear that loads of people with $7,500+ tax liability may decide that a $27k car is the most they are able to pay. It actually comes down to discretionary income and priorities. This marginal group could easily have less than $500 a month of discretionary income, and the price difference people here are quick to dismiss is about $140 a month in payments.

 

[daniel]

In my view, making the car available to employees early has nothing to do with getting it to them in time for the tax break. It's about Tesla keeping the spirit of its promise to them. Putting them at the head of the line implied that they'd be first to get the cars. With or without the tax break, there are folks who want the car as soon as they can get it, and many Tesla employees have been building and selling the high-end Model S for years, and wishing they could own a Tesla. So Tesla comes out and announces the affordable $35K Model 3 and says employees get first crack. Now the employees finally have the opportunity to get a Model 3.

If Tesla now says, "Sorry, we promised you first crack at our first affordable car, but you're going to have to wait an extra year if you want it at the promised affordable price," it's kind of a slap in the face. They now have to wait while other folks, who can afford the high-end options, get theirs first.

But if Tesla lets employees get the $35K version, they'll have kept their promise to the employees, and I think they should do that. But then, I've already pretty much decided that I'm waiting for the P-AWD, and even that will depend on it not feeling too big when I test-drive one. So nothing that happens with the early roll-out affects me. I'm disappointed that I have to wait, but I'm resigned to it.

 

[kaffine]

There is a lot more variation in taxes than the tax return of ONE citizen.
.

I understand that I am just 1 person and my situation may not be typical. However I still see come tax time there is going to be a lot of people complaining that they didn't get the full $7500 they were expecting. I know a few people that bought a Model S and it is by far the most expensive car they have bought and they stretched to buy it. I expect Model 3 buyers to do the same with the fuel bill being lower and peoples enthusiasm so high they will buy a more expensive car than they normally would. Hopefully I am wrong and you are right.

 

[Cloxxki]

Could be that if personnel largely opted for the $35K version, they'll do a run of those, if only to be fair to them, learn from it for later when they'll be making as many of those as possible and merely sending them off to where people oorder this exact color and wheel combo.
After a small batch (x,000?) of $35K personnel cars, proceed to do a nice volume of 74kWh, glass roof, more premium cars, to make bigger wallets move up the line, improve cash position, and have early press be mainly about the premium car with 300+ mile range and quicker charging.

 

[sub]

I waited in line before reveal to get as close to the front of the line as possible, I have 2 reservations. The kid inside me wants the P-AWD but the realist in me knows it is a complete waste of money. We currently have a BMW 335d that is a quick car off the line and 0-60 in 5 seconds and I can't remember the last time I came anywhere near needing or using the full acceleration. I'm in California also and don't need AWD.

If they release full details immediately and I can see the cost and wait time I may consider it if reasonable otherwise I only care about biggest battery and color/wheels etc.

 

[daniel]

I waited in line before reveal to get as close to the front of the line as possible, I have 2 reservations. The kid inside me wants the P-AWD but the realist in me knows it is a complete waste of money. We currently have a BMW 335d that is a quick car off the line and 0-60 in 5 seconds and I can't remember the last time I came anywhere near needing or using the full acceleration. I'm in California also and don't need AWD.

If they release full details immediately and I can see the cost and wait time I may consider it if reasonable otherwise I only care about biggest battery and color/wheels etc.

Merging and passing is what I like acceleration for. I use it for that all the time. I don't know what the driving conditions are like where you live. Or perhaps you are blessed with such a calm disposition that acceleration is unimportant. I will note that I almost never floor the pedal on the Prius because it's burning gasoline. I often floor the pedal on the Roadster because my electricity comes from hydro, and electric motors (in my understanding) do not share an ICE's drawback of becoming massively inefficient under hard acceleration.

"If the election were held today," (as the saying goes) I'd wait for the P-AWD. I reserve the right to change my mind (again) after a test-drive.

 

[SageBrush]

Or perhaps you are blessed with such a calm disposition that acceleration is unimportant.

Well, I most definitely do NOT treat driving as a competition, and I try to adopt behaviours that make me a safer driver for myself and life around me.

 

[daniel]

Well, I most definitely do NOT treat driving as a competition, and I try to adopt behaviours that make me a safer driver for myself and life around me.

I hope we all drive that way.

Note that my Zap Xebra was LESS safe due to being underpowered. I think that having the ability to accelerate when needed increases the level of safety.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I disagree. Tesla's performance car is the Model S.

I disagree. Every Tesla model can have its own performance version. After all....the Model X has its performance version. I'm thinking the Semi will have its performance version also....lol.

 

[favo]

I wonder if they'll use Michelin Pilot Super Sports or the Continental ContiSportContacts (or other). I like the PSS. Never tried the Contis.

 

[206er]

Gotta say, if I can't get a low/no optioned Model 3 in time to secure the full $7,500 tax credit, I will definitely consider something else. I stood in line for hours the morning of 3/31/2016 to place a reservation for a $35k Tesla with an expectation that doing so would significantly increase my chances of securing an awesome EV at a great price while also qualifying for a $7,500 tax credit (bringing it into loaded Civic territory), sight unseen.

If I'm forced to miss out on the full credit while watching later reservations holders leapfrog me to secure more expensive versions of the car with the full tax credit, I'd unfortunately have to explore other vehicle purchase options.

 

[daniel]

^ It would indeed be sad if the people who were really counting on a $35K car minus the tax credit were unable to get it in the end because all the tax credit ended up going to the people who can afford a more expensive version.

Do we really know for sure that the $35K version will not be available early? We know that two very popular (and expensive) options, Performance and dual motor, will not be available at first. Tesla wants everyone to be driving electric, and getting the base model out in time for the people who are stretching to afford it to be able to get the tax credit would seem to be the best move in that direction.

Personally, I think it's counterproductive to give a tax credit to people who could afford the car without the credit.

 

[Cloxxki]

"If the election were held today," (as the saying goes) I'd wait for the P-AWD. I reserve the right to change my mind (again) after a test-drive.

A test drive, if it's to be offered by Tesla, might take a while. Seems all cars will go to reservation holder for the foreseeable future. Would be uncool to make reservation holder wait extra just to show the car off to those who'll have to wait at least a year anyway. Proud owners might share in the wealth though, or rent theirs out (which would be a smart thing, might well get Model S rates initially).

On the 300kW inverter that hs been sighted. Would that be for the base version only, or meant to cover also the PDL versions? Latter might get two, but that seems overkill. A larger inverter for the premium cars? Hmmm... Perhaps the 300kW will just have to do. A bit over 400hp, less that the true PDL freaks would hope for, but more than anyone really needs?

 

[JeffK]

A test drive, if it's to be offered by Tesla, might take a while. Seems all cars will go to reservation holder for the foreseeable future. Would be uncool to make reservation holder wait extra just to show the car off to those who'll have to wait at least a year anyway.

Many reservationists want to test drive before converting their reservation to an actual order. It's great to have hundreds of thousands of reservations, but the conversion rate to actual orders is what counts.

 

[jonnyg]

^ It would indeed be sad if the people who were really counting on a $35K car minus the tax credit were unable to get it in the end because all the tax credit ended up going to the people who can afford a more expensive version.

Do we really know for sure that the $35K version will not be available early? We know that two very popular (and expensive) options, Performance and dual motor, will not be available at first. Tesla wants everyone to be driving electric, and getting the base model out in time for the people who are stretching to afford it to be able to get the tax credit would seem to be the best move in that direction.

Personally, I think it's counterproductive to give a tax credit to people who could afford the car without the credit.

Rumors have pointed towards the larger battery being the only one available at launch, but nothing confirmed that I know of.

Might also need to pay for the glass roof option if you want an early one, as I believe all RCs have had that.

 

[daniel]

A test drive, if it's to be offered by Tesla, might take a while. Seems all cars will go to reservation holder for the foreseeable future. Would be uncool to make reservation holder wait extra just to show the car off to those who'll have to wait at least a year anyway. Proud owners might share in the wealth though, or rent theirs out (which would be a smart thing, might well get Model S rates initially).

I can wait. Since my intention is to get the P-AWD, and I love my Roadster, which I'll have to give up when I get the Model 3, due to lack of garage space, I'll just wait until I can drive one before ordering. Since I expect to wait an extra year for the car, I'm sure there will be an opportunity to drive the car before then. And I don't need to drive the P-AWD to get a feel for the size of the car. I know the AWD handles much better than RWD, and the specs will tell me if the P has the acceleration I want. (I want equal to my non-sport Roadster or better.)

I think it would make sense for them to build 50 demo cars for the west coast (early delivery) states, and invite the reservation-holders in those states, in their order on the list, to come in for a test drive. That would put one car in every store in those states and would only delay early deliveries by 50 places.

 

[ummgood]

Personally, I think it's counterproductive to give a tax credit to people who could afford the car without the credit.

What about someone in the north who needs a larger battery due to winter driving and can't afford a 42k car but could afford the 42k car with a tax credit. I think you'll always find people who are left out no matter what the decision is to ship. Honestly at this price range there will be people even with bigger battery options that can't afford the car without the tax credit.

Personally my income states I can afford a 50k car but I have prioritized my money else where (private school for 3 kids, t-ball, gymnastics, etc...) so I could really utilize the tax credit as well but would like the 42k car. I do want everyone who can afford the car to get it but at the same point if any of us end up not getting the car because we don't get the tax credit we can either re-evaluate that this car is really the one for us at this point in time.

All this to say I think Tesla needs to do what makes the overall product launch as successful as possible both for buyers and financially for Tesla itself. If the 35k car has no or negative profit initially until production numbers ramp it might be better for Tesla to release the 42k car first regardless of who can afford it or not. On top of that if Tesla has trouble because they make the wrong car first or have complications that might sink the entire ship so whatever car comes out first I am sure they did lots of thinking of why and I'll accept that. If I can't get the car I want initially then I'll have to reassess but I won't blame Tesla or feel like it is counterproductive because they didn't "give" a tax credit to those who can't afford a 35k car but can afford a 28k car. I think personally this is why Elon really wants to do away with the tax credit. If the car is really compelling and competitive without it then it just adds complication and a sense of entitlement to the line waiters.

 

[Cloxxki]

Many reservationists want to test drive before converting their reservation to an actual order. It's great to have hundreds of thousands of reservations, but the conversion rate to actual orders is what counts.

It will be interesting what policy Tesla will try to hold. And, how many they can sell before they run out of eager sight unseeen buyers. It may well be that there are raving reviews by Tesla vloggers and mainstream car journos before Tesla runs out of the blind faithful, adding more to the immediate waiting line.
As there will be few options, Tesla will just start sending cars to delivery points. He who pays, gets to drive one home. If certain circumstances develop, they can easily convert certain units to fleet cars. All will be inventory anyway.

 

[daniel]

What about someone in the north who needs a larger battery due to winter driving and can't afford a 42k car but could afford the 42k car with a tax credit. ...

A bigger question is what about people who can't afford a car at all and their tax dollars are subsidizing car buyers?

... I think personally this is why Elon really wants to do away with the tax credit. ...

So Elon and I agree.

Instead of giving tax credits for electric cars or PV arrays, we should make fossil fuels pay their full and true cost, including the environmental costs, and eliminate the tax breaks and giveaways that oil and coal companies get. That would level the playing field and move the whole country to sustainable energy and transportation faster. That in turn would lower the costs due to economies of scale, and would benefit everyone.

I've said it before: I'm hypocritical enough to take whatever tax breaks the government will give me. But I'm honest enough to say they should not be giving me those breaks. I got the tax credit for buying my Roadster, and before that I got a tax credit when I bought my 2004 Prius. But I'd have bought both of those cars without a tax break, so my fellow taxpayers gave me some free money for no reason. That money would be better spent on R&D to help the nation move toward a sustainable economy. And that goes for all tax credits, deductions, loopholes, etc.

 

[kierants]

I am a newbie here and new to Tesla. I placed an order for a model 3 in April of 2016.
I have heard that at rollout there will be very few options beyond color and wheel size.
Will there be range or other options as well or are we still in wait and see mode?