Where is the Model X Test Mule? Is there one?

[NigelM]

When I said, for example, that the information about streamlined falcon wings came from Tesla, my reference to that photograph was equally sincere. It was not a comment on final production spec, for example. I thought it was common knowledge on TMC, that photo and the changed doors and I was quite surprised to see it labelled as fantasy, actually.

Firstly, you stated as fact that the doors were lighter without noting that was from a stylized email shot where other things such as mirror stalks and headrests were questioned; and it kind of ignores the fact that Tesla sent that update prior to test crashing betas (which they told us). The circumstances alone make it impossible to say with any degree of certainty that those are the final doors so it's erroneous to suggest as a fact that the doors are now lighter than the original prototype.

Secondly, this is what I said about fantasy:

As for being very different, an earlier leak seemed to confirm the removal of mask from front. The heavy camo on this mule on front and back (that makes it Prius-like), if indeed Model X, suggests those may be the most affected areas externally. Also the Falcon wings are a lighter design.

I think we're into fantasy land again to suggest that any of those details can be ascertained from the grainy, camouflaged shots we've seen (of what is assumed/guessed to be Model X). That the falcon wings are a lighter design when it's not even clear these are falcon wings at all.....

When this thread is discussing mules and now a grainy video I still think it's fantastic to suggest that it confirms anything based on a pre-beta marketing e-mail.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Until I hear it directly from TM what was driving around the shipyard the other day it is speculation. It probably was an X but no one on these forums knows for sure. (OK, well maybe Nigel as I think he is really EM in disguise:biggrin

Well, even with TM commenting would still be speculation because we'd place trust on TM's words. Maybe the spokesperson isn't in the loop. In another instance it might be in the interest of a company to not tell the whole truth about product development details. For all we know, they might be testing Model Z and not tell us.

What we can see, hear and measure, we can verify to an extent. Rest is trust on something, sometimes words, sometimes on common wisdom. In reality, short of reliable and independent witness testimony, we will never really know what Tesla drove out there.

 

[NigelM]

That said, the mule seems to have the same exterior design on the door as the November update email, which casts a little doubt on that part.

A pre-beta e-mail shot, head on with doors open compared to a side shot, doors closed on a camouflaged mule with very low resolution. I have no idea how you manage to ascertain that it's the same exterior design on the door.

That's an example for me of entering fantasy land and what I meant when I say we try to make images fit what we want to believe.

- - - Updated - - -

P.S. There's a minor football game starting shortly! :smile:.....Sorry I can't continue this conversation.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Firstly, you stated as fact that the doors were lighter without noting that was from a stylized email shot where other things such as mirror stalks and headrests were questioned; and it kind of ignores the fact that Tesla sent that update prior to test crashing betas (which they told us). The circumstances alone make it impossible to say with any degree of certainty that those are the final doors so it's erroneous to suggest as a fact that the doors are now lighter than the original prototype.

Secondly, this is what I said about fantasy:

When this thread is discussing mules and now a grainy video I still think it's fantastic to suggest that it confirms anything based on a pre-beta marketing e-mail.

Thank you for clarifying, it is appreciated.

First my original comment that started all this:

Side mirrors certainly are there, although they would not be too difficult to camouflage on top of the cameras either. Tesla has shown early Model X prototypes with and without mirrors, so it doesn't really tell much of what they plan to ship. May well depend on the market too.

As for being very different, an earlier leak seemed to confirm the removal of mask from front. The heavy camo on this mule on front and back (that makes it Prius-like), if indeed Model X, suggests those may be the most affected areas externally. Also the Falcon wings are a lighter design.

The part about "lighter doors" I'll put down to lost in translation. I didn't mean lighter in weight could be construed from the images, nor did I say lighter doors, I said a lighter design. I simply made a reference to the streamlined look that was shown to us in the November update. Of course I can't know what is there internally, simply that the streamlined design's external appearance had made it onto this mule. The notion that it is lighter in weight is certainly speculation, although maybe suggested in part by hints on Model X weight losses by TM representatives over the months.

As for mules and now a grainy video, it isn't the video that - I feel - confirms the falcon wing door design, it is the Instagram photograph from the same session:

The changes in door design certainly seem beyond "fantasy land" to me. Even if you think they are speculative, as we can't absolutely verify the nature of the mule, they seem at least educated guesses:

 

[AlMc]

Well, even with TM commenting would still be speculation because we'd place trust on TM's words. Maybe the spokesperson isn't in the loop. In another instance it might be in the interest of a company to not tell the whole truth about product development details. For all we know, they might be testing Model Z and not tell us.

What we can see, hear and measure, we can verify to an extent. Rest is trust on something, sometimes words, sometimes on common wisdom. In reality, short of reliable and independent witness testimony, we will never really know what Tesla drove out there.

Now, I can agree with that........:wink:

 

[AnxietyRanger]

NigelM: To add to your response, "an earlier leak seemed to confirm the removal of mask from front" was not a reference to the grainy video, nor to the Instagram image. It was a reference to "insiderinfo", who - due to Tesla's reaction - may have been in the know, complemented by the November update image that doesn't show the mask and shows the new doors the mule has (unlike all other prototype images from Tesla) and some other potential insider talk about a redesign that looks much better. In no way does the video confirm anything about the nose, but since the area is heavily camouflaged, it isn't impossible it has changed either. Nose cone removal is definitely speculative.

Maybe my comment was too casually written and not detailed enough, and thus incited the response that it did, but rest assured no fantasy was intended, nor was it meant as a fact. As said, I think the new design of falcon wings making production is about 90% likely, removal of entire nose cone perhaps 30% likely.

Finally, I think it is very likely this mule is the Model X and not a Model 3 tester as speculated by some. The wheelbase may be shorter than in the prototype or it may not be.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Speculation that the nose cone is being replaced with a HyperLoop-inspired air scoop, leading thru a turbine which reduces drag under acceleration and contributes to regen when it's regen time, is entirely based on my daydreaming yesterday. I wouldn't put it past 'em though.
What football game?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Speculation that the nose cone is being replaced with a HyperLoop-inspired air scoop, leading thru a turbine which reduces drag under acceleration and contributes to regen when it's regen time, is entirely based on my daydreaming yesterday. I wouldn't put it past 'em though.
What football game?

While we're firmly in the realm of fantasy land, and this part is strictly there, I was also thinking about the nose cone from a product family perspective. If Tesla were moving away (speculation!) from the current nose cone design, perhaps Tesla would also facelift Model S to have whatever new front design Model X might get. They said no major platform changes for about a year for Model S, so after that timer is out, sometime after starting to ship a fresh Model X design, revisiting the Model S nose cone could also happen.

Something like this, maybe? (Changing the bonnet in a facelift a little less likely, but this is just an old idea on Teslarati.)

As far as automotive mid-life facelifts go, a new front bumper/grille certainly isn't unheard of.

 

[AlMc]

While we're firmly in the realm of fantasy land, and this part is strictly there, I was also thinking about the nose cone from a product family perspective. If Tesla were moving away (speculation!) from the current nose cone design, perhaps Tesla would also facelift Model S to have whatever new front design Model X might get. They said no major platform changes for about a year for Model S, so after that timer is out, sometime after starting to ship a fresh Model X design, revisiting the Model S nose cone could also happen.

Something like this, maybe? (Changing the bonnet in a facelift a little less likely, but this is just an old idea on Teslarati.)

As far as automotive mid-life facelifts go, a new front bumper/grille certainly isn't unheard of.

Maybe you should start a new thread for this as we have firmly moved away from X mule speculation?

 

[JRP3]

I believe he said the Model X was longer than the S - but I don't recall hearing that the wheelbase was longer. What I do recall hearing was how it would be built on the identical platform as the Model S (and if you recall, the S has always had the space for the dual motor reserved in the front, even before it was offered - clearly they were planning ahead).

Agree. I don't know where the longer wheelbase stuff came from, but it makes no sense for a prototype that was most likely built on the Model S chassis.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Agree. I don't know where the longer wheelbase stuff came from, but it makes no sense for a prototype that was most likely built on the Model S chassis.

FWIW, the only place where I've heard that too is sigurdi too. It may be something lost in translation. Short of someone going an measuring the wheelbase of the old prototype(s), I would call it speculative at best. In the Model 3 mule thread there is some further talk on how to calculate the wheelbase of this new test mule, especially with the close-up of the wheel looking a lot smaller than it does in the video quality, for those who still care.

Maybe you should start a new thread for this as we have firmly moved away from X mule speculation?

I know some people are into wildly speculative threads, and TMC certainly is full of them, but it may surprise some to hear I'm actually not. That speculation about Model S nose cone changes only really makes any sense in the potential Model X change context, otherwise it is not supported by anything in public. Belaboring the point to the extent of going to Model S forums with it would seem like advocating it, which I'm not. It was just a thought that could make some sense if Model X indeed receives a nosejob and we can leave the thought be.

It will certainly be interesting to see if or when we may be able to gather more clues about design changes for Model X, but until new sources appear, I'll gladly leave the topic to "time served".

 

[sigurdi]

Sorry the longer wheelbase on the prototype is speculations. I am in fantacyland and it is a good place to be. he he he

Have been digging and looks like it came from Elons visit in Norway where he talked about the model X length, he told us that on the final car it will have the same wheelbase as model S, and total length around 5cm longer. (Between the lines the prototype have different wheelbase and again speculations no facts)

This video from 27 minutes.

After this it was some picture comparing of prototype pictures against model S and it was not possible to get the length and wheelbase to line up, not on real shots or official drawings of both cars.

The same speculations was going on on this forum like the specs from this post at TMC.

Back to topic, if the wheelbase on the prototype, was longer than on production the size of the Camo car on the Test track to line up better and is just speculations.

And in the total run it do not matter, just something to kill the waiting time, we will see the real car, when the time is right and hopefully the $ will lower its value cause today the X will be to expensive. :-(
My Signature will not happen with todays exchange rates, I hoping for a Event around summer and I can take some weeks in California at the same time.
(Price on Model S up more than 20% because of exchange rates, but it is looking better, oil prices starting to turn around.... :-( )

sigurdi

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Thank you for those useful clarifications, sigurdi!

 

[Trev Page]

I think maybe it's a hoax by some industrious Tesla owners. Somebody took a Prius and put some camo on it put it in a trailer with a Tesla banner on it (although we don't see anything on the trailer that says Tesla in the photos). In that fuzzy of a picture, it wouldn't take much to make it look like it has falcon-wing doors.

It looks too small, the rear proportions are wrong, and the pictures are just too conveniently bad. If my iPhone 5 ever took a video that bad, it would be trashed. You couldn't get a photo until the car was halfway back in the trailer? Just too many coincidences for me.

That, and I don't want my MX to look anything like that, so I'm in denial.

Digital zoom is a bitch...

 

[AnxietyRanger]

A camo'ed Prius sure would be a fun end-result. I find quite a few details off for that, though, so if that's what happened.... well done!

I would say more likely the leaked images were orchestrated by Tesla to not show too much, but enough... With independent witnesses, I would find more video and pictures likely than we got here. But of course, sometime reality just is unlikely.

 

[cmaster]

If Tesla already shown what Elon Musk want the Model X looks like, why is there a need to camouflaged the Model X when it's being tested. Previously, there were pictures taken of the Model S dual-motor car that undergone testing and pictures were taken where it wasn't camoflaged.

It's very interesting that they need to put the Model X under test in camo when Elon had said the prototype will look almost exactly as the real thing.

 

[eepic]

If Tesla already shown what Elon Musk want the Model X looks like, why is there a need to camouflaged the Model X when it's being tested. Previously, there were pictures taken of the Model S dual-motor car that undergone testing and pictures were taken where it wasn't camoflaged.

It's very interesting that they need to put the Model X under test in camo when Elon had said the prototype will look almost exactly as the real thing.

If I recall correctly, the P85D that was out in the wild was specifically badged for photography and/or filming by TM, so camo/mislabelling would defeat the purpose. And the fact that we picked up on it here and word spread all over the internet is precisely why they would want to camo it this time. As much as I'm impatient, I do prefer for Tesla to reveal the X's looks and features as they see best.

 

[BerTX]

It's very interesting that they need to put the Model X under test in camo when Elon had said the prototype will look almost exactly as the real thing.

I'm pretty sure that's just about the OPPOSITE of what he said...

 

[cmaster]

I had thought he said something how concept cars are just concept and just for show and whereas the Model X, it looks like a concept car, and will be made to production keeping its most of its appearance at the event at the Tesla factory when he had called reporters to check out the prototype Model X.

Did he change his statement about it the Model X not holding true to its concept-like features?

I'm pretty sure that's just about the OPPOSITE of what he said...

 

[CmdrThor]

I had thought he said something how concept cars are just concept and just for show and whereas the Model X, it looks like a concept car, and will be made to production keeping its most of its appearance at the event at the Tesla factory when he had called reporters to check out the prototype Model X.

Did he change his statement about it the Model X not holding true to its concept-like features?

He said he thinks the production version should always be better than the concept. For example he would not show a concept with Falcon Doors and then release the production version without.