Where is the Model X Test Mule? Is there one?

[AnxietyRanger]

You guys keep posting comparison photos without scaling the images correctly -.-

You won't get a good comparison on the length if the scaling on the wheel diameter isn't 1:1

The low resolution of the wheels at best (mere 30 something pixels) and significant color bleed between the pixels at that distance makes it very hard. Same with adjusting for the different perspectives of the car, what is camo, what is perspective differences, what is potentially a hardware change etc.

And even then it will be hard if we don't account for differences in lens geometry in different photos. Nearby objects on some lenses bend/stretch differently than far-away objects on others. The level of detail - lack thereof - in the assumed Model X mule doesn't allow accurate scaling at the moment.

People do the best they can. Others are more than welcome to add to it more precision, if possible.

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There was nothing in that drawing that would confirm removal of the nose cone (or that it was still in place). Nada. Moderators did not say anything like that. Pure speculation on the part of TMC members. That's all.

Can you point me to a source where Tesla referenced streamlining falcon wing doors? I seem to have missed it.

I didn't mean the drawing was the source of the nose cone removal, just that the source of the drawing and the nose cone removal claim was the same. It gives it some credence. Now, of course it is possible a source with some accurate or offensive leak would be wrong about other things. Like I said, I placed the nose gone being gone at 30% likely personally. Much of that is from this source, but add to that other things that have been on heard through the grapevine. Nothing to be certain of, still.

As for the streamlined falcon wing doors, it was the November update. That is also one reason why I think nose cone may be gone:

 

[bonnie]

I'm as curious as the next person as to what the X will be - and for what it's worth, you know I saw that drawing (and the friendly request from Tesla) & other posts, also received the invite with the updated X picture (but no reason to believe final) ... and I do not have the assumptions you have.

A true-life example of 'ymmv'. We each have the same input, one of us has drawn conclusions that the other has not. Doesn't make either of us right or wrong. But that's my point, I guess ... this is all speculation. And I'm only pointing stuff out to keep it from becoming fact.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Exactly. Or conclusions are based on assumptions that are forgotten somewhere along the line. The MX is based on the MS so the wheelbase must be the same so if we stretch the picture of the spy photo car to fit the wheelbase of the MX prototype, they are the same size so it must be a MX. Huh?

If the only thing that would fit, would be a stretched out wheelbase, and we'd surmise "Model X mule" from that... then I'd agree with you.

But SO MANY things fit with this being a Model X mule, the timing and "the simplest explanation being the right" perhaps the most important ones, but others are falcon wings handles peeking from underneath the camo, overall shape very close to the Model X, a tow hitch clearly visible, etc. The likelihood of this being a Model X mule seems very high. The wheelbase certainly can have changed, too. The differences in wheelbase that can be surmised from the quality of the data are very uncertain themselves.

If this is not a Model X, and it is a Tesla, then pretty much the only thing that makes sense would be a powertrain mule for something else disguised or externally built like a Model X. And it just doesn't seem nearly as likely as being a Model X mule and the optics confusing us about the wheelbase.

Again, here is the close shot, where the tell-tale falcon wing handle is visible under the camo and the shape of the rear bend in the door metal matching the November update email with taller lower kink - on the Model X prototype the falcon wing didn't go as low as they do in the new version:

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I'm as curious as the next person as to what the X will be - and for what it's worth, you know I saw that drawing (and the friendly request from Tesla) & other posts, also received the invite with the updated X picture (but no reason to believe final) ... and I do not have the assumptions you have.

A true-life example of 'ymmv'. We each have the same input, one of us has drawn conclusions that the other has not. Doesn't make either of us right or wrong. But that's my point, I guess ... this is all speculation. And I'm only pointing stuff out to keep it from becoming fact.

Perfectly fair, of course.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying the streamlined falcon wings on the update image necessarily are final, but again their outward appearance seem to match the mule in these pictures!

Part of the new falcon wings covers the hemline of the car, whereas prototype falcon wings didn't - the old falcon wings were different from the bottom:

 

[Newb]

I think AnxietyRanger has some valid points there. On a scale from fact to fantasy land, "nose-cone-gone" and "lighter/streamlined falcon-wing doors" are closer to fact than to fantasy land if you have followed some of the hints lately, he/she has mentioned (Tesla e-mail picutre, recent camo video). That simple. Of course, you can say, this is all invalid as evidence - true. But it's reasonable to accept those speculations as based on "some" hints, and certainly slightly more valid than, for instance, my pure speculation on Aston Martin MX clone or two wheelbase versions of the MX. That is certainly fantasy land, I will admit!

 

[bonnie]

I think AnxietyRanger has some valid points there. On a scale from fact to fantasy land, "nose-cone-gone" and "lighter/streamlined falcon-wing doors" are closer to fact than to fantasy land if you have followed some of the hints lately, he/she has mentioned (Tesla e-mail picutre, recent camo video). That simple. Of course, you can say, this is all invalid as evidence - true. But it's reasonable to accept those speculations as based on "some" hints, and certainly slightly more valid than, for instance, my pure speculation on Aston Martin MX clone or two wheelbase versions of the MX. That is certainly fantasy land, I will admit!

I think I was clear that everyone can believe what they want to believe. It's not an argument where anyone needs to defend anyone's 'valid points'. I was sharing why I'm ambivalent about all the latest speculation - and concerned over how quickly that speculation becomes 'fact'.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

FWIW, I appreciated Newb's comment. Not because there is any kind of argument, but because it helps to hear my point of view was at least understandable. Newb summarized my thoughts to the letter and that alone is a great response, and if someone felt my messages were hard to understand, perhaps Newb's summary helped to communicate that view for others to consider.

Also, we're all human. Too often such things are just left to linger, that acknowledgement denied, the other party checking out before any consensus is allowed. Sometimes it is good to get a bit of a pat on the back that the point was heard and encouragement to keep contributing. Personally I love seeing people put in effort to analyze various tidbits and hope to be encouraging in return. Newb pitching in was appreciated from that point of view as well.

I do admit I don't quite share the fear that speculation hurts Tesla. The more active the speculation, the more detailed it is, the less there is room for silliness. I also don't think, as a personal opinion, it is up to the Tesla user community at large to be protective of Tesla.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Back to the speculation:

New streamlined falcon wings are one thing. They seem quite certain to happen to some extent. But the "nose cone gone" is much less certain. The November update, if accurate representation over the area that is visible, certainly suggests the top part of the nose cone indeed is now gone. The insiderinfo leak says the same, and there are other rumors of a much more attractive Model X design for the production model... and the nose of the mule, if Model X, is quite heavily camouflaged.

So, certainly it is possible the nose has changed, but the reason I placed the likelihood of nose cone entirely gone at only 30% is not only because I distrust the source entirely, but also because I'm not quite sure how they could do without a mask entirely, design-wise. One thing that could happen, in its place, would be perhaps extending non-painted lower areas of the front higher, to create some contrast there. Something like a 2010 Porsche Cayenne in the middle, where the mask is quite understated?

Porsche Cayenne - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Or maybe just a sliver of a mask, like the unpainted area here:

 

[bonnie]

FWIW, I appreciated Newb's comment. Not because there is any kind of argument, but because it helps to hear my point of view was at least understandable. Newb summarized my thoughts to the letter and that alone is a great response, and if someone felt my messages were hard to understand, perhaps Newb's summary helped to communicate that view for others to consider.

Also, we're all human. Too often such things are just left to linger, that acknowledgement denied, the other party checking out before any consensus is allowed. Sometimes it is good to get a bit of a pat on the back that the point was heard and encouragement to keep contributing. Personally I love seeing people put in effort to analyze various tidbits and hope to be encouraging in return. Newb pitching in was appreciated from that point of view as well.

I do admit I don't quite share the fear that speculation hurts Tesla. The more active the speculation, the more detailed it is, the less there is room for silliness. I also don't think, as a personal opinion, it is up to the Tesla user community at large to be protective of Tesla.

Okay. Not going to belabor it past this. My point, which seems missed, is that speculation quickly turns to fact, if we're not careful of our wording. And then based on past experience, people on the forum are very upset with Tesla, claiming they were lied to ... when in fact, Tesla never said it. It's things like saying Tesla themselves said it was streamlined falcon wing doors, when in fact it's based on a photo and speculation. That's OKAY. Just trying to help others who might not question where the info came from - and then are disappointed when not true.

No one EVER said not to speculate and have fun at it. Please don't characterize anything I've said that way. I think I've clearly been stating the same thing, repeatedly. But it doesn't seem heard. Perhaps it's a language difference.

 

[sigurdi]

I actually like the nose cone, but have been thinking about the exstra heat the X need to get rid of, when driving with a trailer behind it.
The Model S get overheated quite fast when driving on a track, heat is lead through the radiators in the front and out on the wheels.
I guess more air need to pass through the frontal area and on the other hand it should be as aredynamic as possible.
Anyway looking forward to the day it will be shown to the public, hopefully I will be there in person to join a test drive.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Okay. Not going to belabor it past this. My point, which seems missed, is that speculation quickly turns to fact, if we're not careful of our wording. And then based on past experience, people on the forum are very upset with Tesla, claiming they were lied to ... when in fact, Tesla never said it. It's things like saying Tesla themselves said it was streamlined falcon wing doors, when in fact it's based on a photo and speculation. That's OKAY. Just trying to help others who might not question where the info came from - and then are disappointed when not true.

No one EVER said not to speculate and have fun at it. Please don't characterize anything I've said that way. I think I've clearly been stating the same thing, repeatedly. But it doesn't seem heard. Perhaps it's a language difference.

Hopefully I can acknowledge your point in turn: I do understand, and it is evident in many discussions that seem puzzling to a newcomer, there are certain historical truths and pains on this forum that affect the culture of certain discussions. Sometimes a lot. Newcomers may be insensitive and/or ignorant towards these, myself included. I don't doubt some people do what you say they do and I believe your concern over it is sincere. That is unfortunate, I would agree. The last thing on my mind to mislead with the posts I make, quite the opposite given the detail I strive for at times. When I said, for example, that the information about streamlined falcon wings came from Tesla, my reference to that photograph was equally sincere. It was not a comment on final production spec, for example. I thought it was common knowledge on TMC, that photo and the changed doors and I was quite surprised to see it labelled as fantasy, actually. On the other hand, personally, I'd be more interested in helping along an accurate speculation, than thinking about helping out Tesla, but I acknowledge many here feel particularly partial towards Tesla.

One thing that I said to NigelM, and I guess I'd love to hear from you as well since both of you participated in the fantasy response to my analysis - as I respect your opinion as long-standing members, Tesla users and I know NigelM has been accurate with his Model X schedule posts that I've noted - is what do you think of the nose cone and the streamlined falcon wings in particular? Do you think those changes are likely or unlikely to happen when comparing the original unveiled prototype and eventual production vehicle? And why? Or if you can't comment because you know something, that would be fair to say too, if we are on an unequal footing.

In all such discussions it would be nice to hear what exactly you don't like about the details of these particular speculation examples. Generic responses can feel like glossing over quite a lot of detail provided and that's why Newb's comment was so welcome.

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I actually like the nose cone, but have been thinking about the exstra heat the X need to get rid of, when driving with a trailer behind it.
The Model S get overheated quite fast when driving on a track, heat is lead through the radiators in the front and out on the wheels.
I guess more air need to pass through the frontal area and on the other hand it should be as aredynamic as possible.
Anyway looking forward to the day it will be shown to the public, hopefully I will be there in person to join a test drive.

Nose cones - or in the case of most ICEs grilles (for example Audi A2 did have a nose cone, though) - are also very distinctive design elements for car manufacturers, BMW's kidneys (as their Hofmeister kink more to the rear) may be more of a logo than the company's actual logo is. Audi's single frame, while a latter day invention, is already legendary.

It is hard to imagine Model X without any mask. And doubtful if it would be a good design direction for Tesla. The nose cone as we know it may be gone, that is certainly a possible alternative in my mind, but perhaps it is replaced by something else... Which probably would be a good thing.

 

[bonnie]

Hopefully I can acknowledge your point in turn: I do understand, and it is evident in many discussions that seem puzzling to a newcomer, there are certain historical truths and pains on this forum that affect the culture of certain discussions. Sometimes a lot. Newcomers may be insensitive and/or ignorant towards these, myself included. I don't doubt some people do what you say they do and I believe your concern over it is sincere. That is unfortunate, I would agree. The last thing on my mind to mislead with the posts I make, quite the opposite given the detail I strive for at times. When I said, for example, that the information about streamlined falcon wings came from Tesla, my reference to that photograph was equally sincere. It was not a comment on final production spec, for example. I thought it was common knowledge on TMC, that photo and the changed doors and I was quite surprised to see it labelled as fantasy, actually. On the other hand, personally, I'd be more interested in helping along an accurate speculation, than thinking about helping out Tesla, but I acknowledge many here feel particularly partial towards Tesla.

One thing that I said to NigelM, and I guess I'd love to hear from you as well since both of you participated in the fantasy response to my analysis - as I respect your opinion as long-standing members, Tesla users and I know NigelM has been accurate with his Model X schedule posts that I've noted - is what do you think of the nose cone and the streamlined falcon wings in particular? Do you think those changes are likely or unlikely to happen when comparing the original unveiled prototype and eventual production vehicle? And why? Or if you can't comment because you know something, that would be fair to say too, if we are on an unequal footing.

In all such discussions it would be nice to hear what exactly you don't like about the details of these particular speculation examples. Generic responses can feel like glossing over quite a lot of detail provided and that's why Newb's comment was so welcome.

Alright. I'll try again. Good example in your post of how things get twisted 'just a little'. I only called things speculation, but in your post, you say:

I thought it was common knowledge on TMC, that photo and the changed doors and I was quite surprised to see it labelled as fantasy, actually.

I didn't label anything you said as fantasy. That's your interpretation. But it sounds like I made a very specific claim that it was 'fantasy'. That's a pretty strong conclusion & nothing I said every came close to that.

That's how stuff moves from speculation to fact so quickly.

My opinion? It may be right, it may be wrong. That picture is a stylized graphic used by Marketing as part of an invitation. If Tesla is so carefully guarding the final design, then I question why they'd put it on an invite. ... But that's just me. Everyone is entitled to interpret information in their own way - and we all do, based on our life experiences.

I am carefully not forming opinions about what the X will be, simply because I want to be surprised. I don't want to get myself locked into one way of thinking and then be potentially disappointed because it doesn't have a mermaid tail or whatever. I want Tesla to delight me, like a little kid waking up Christmas morning and finding presents under the tree, exceeding my expectations.

But that's just me. I'm not trying to stop any speculation, only trying to keep speculation labeled as speculation. That's all. Because there may be some other people who want to be delighted and not have all the anticipation ruined by overanalyzing what is sure to be a phenomenal vehicle.

 

[Nixter]

Only if the prototype have the same wheelbase, if wheelbase on prototype is longer then the camo will be almost same lenght and hight.

Sigurdi that is a good point, if the wheelbase has been changed even a teeny amount, that would totally skew the photo overlay results. Does anyone know is it possible that Tesla could have changed the wheelbase?

 

[sigurdi]

I remember Elon or JB sad that the wheelbase on the prototype was longer than Model S, but would be the same on production.
This is quite some time ago and I am not looking through hours with Q&A to find it, but when I try to compare prototype and Model S, the wheelbase do not match with length.
Have a picture of myself (known hight) on the side of the Prototype, (the on in the Reseption at Design Center) as a comparison to the known hight of Model S.

 

[bonnie]

I remember Elon or JB sad that the wheelbase on the prototype was longer than Model S, but would be the same on production.
This is quite some time ago, but when I try to compare prototype and Model S, the wheelbase do not match with length.
Have a picture of myself (known hight) on the side of the Prototype, (the on in the Reseption at Design Center) as a comparison to the known hight of Model S.

I believe he said the Model X was longer than the S - but I don't recall hearing that the wheelbase was longer. What I do recall hearing was how it would be built on the identical platform as the Model S (and if you recall, the S has always had the space for the dual motor reserved in the front, even before it was offered - clearly they were planning ahead).

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Alright. I'll try again. Good example in your post of how things get twisted 'just a little'. I only called things speculation, but in your post, you say:

I didn't label anything you said as fantasy. That's your interpretation. But it sounds like I made a very specific claim that it was 'fantasy'. That's a pretty strong conclusion & nothing I said every came close to that.

Posts #448, #449 and #454 form the collective response which I referred to, so my surprise about the falcon wings observation being labelled as fantasy was mostly about NigelM's comment. I did get the sense that you pitched in to support his view, though, at the time. Perhaps you didn't mean it that way.

My opinion? It may be right, it may be wrong. That picture is a stylized graphic used by Marketing as part of an invitation. If Tesla is so carefully guarding the final design, then I question why they'd put it on an invite. ... But that's just me. Everyone is entitled to interpret information in their own way - and we all do, based on our life experiences.

Fair enough. A stylized graphic used by marketing is actually a very nice alternative to offer to the speculation. It isn't impossible, for sure. That said, the mule seems to have the same exterior design on the door as the November update email, which casts a little doubt on that part. The nose cone area, of course, could simply have been blanked out in marketing (although that too might suggest some changes in this area).

I am carefully not forming opinions about what the X will be, simply because I want to be surprised. I don't want to get myself locked into one way of thinking and then be potentially disappointed because it doesn't have a mermaid tail or whatever. I want Tesla to delight me, like a little kid waking up Christmas morning and finding presents under the tree, exceeding my expectations.

But that's just me. I'm not trying to stop any speculation, only trying to keep speculation labeled as speculation. That's all. Because there may be some other people who want to be delighted and not have all the anticipation ruined by overanalyzing what is sure to be a phenomenal vehicle.

That's cool. I have no problem making sure speculation is labelled that, nor with trying to keep "spoilers" to threads where to those wanting to avoid them can avoid them (this would seem like a correct thread to discuss test mules, though, so anyone not wanting to be spoiled would do well to steer clear). Equally I would welcome that the speculation brush would not be quite so keenly and widely be used on things that are already visible facts. For example, it really isn't speculation to say the test mule seems to have the November update door shape on the bottom edge. Now, what to make of that can certainly be speculation, but such details can already be facts or very likely facts if we assume some margin of error for visual inaccuracies and acknowledge the fact that changes may happen prior to final release.

 

[sigurdi]

I believe he said the Model X was longer than the S - but I don't recall hearing that the wheelbase was longer. What I do recall hearing was how it would be built on the identical platform as the Model S (and if you recall, the S has always had the space for the dual motor reserved in the front, even before it was offered - clearly they were planning ahead).

It actually do not matter, it will look like it should, and when Fraz, Jerome and Elon is happy with the look. I will love it.

 

[bonnie]

Equally I would welcome that the speculation brush would not be quite so keenly and widely be used on things that are already visible facts. For example, it really isn't speculation to say the test mule seems to have the November update door shape on the bottom edge. Now, what to make of that can certainly be speculation, but such details can already be facts or very likely facts if we assume some margin of error for visual inaccuracies and acknowledge the fact that changes may happen prior to final release.

Where was it established as fact that the vehicle in question is a Model X? It could be a modified Model X, it could be something else entirely. I'll agree it's very possible that it's at least a modified form of the X. But everything you just posted assumed a fact that is (in fact ) speculation only.

... I'd LOVE to be a fly on the wall at Tesla as they read through these threads.

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It actually do not matter, it will look like it should, and when Fraz, Jerome and Elon is happy with the look. I will love it.

Ditto.

 

[yobigd20]

and if you recall, the S has always had the space for the dual motor reserved in the front, even before it was offered - clearly they were planning ahead).

I don't think that's true at all. AFAIK Elon and JB both said they weren't planning for an AWD MS and were shocked about how many requests they had for it. If you're referring to the cubby in the front, that wasn't for an AWD motor; in the early design that originally was for additional batteries because they weren't sure if they could fit all 85kW batteries in the pack yet. They also said they had to completely restructure the frame in the front to accommodate the AWD motor. They didn't do this originally because they had no intentions at all of ever having an AWD MS. The only reason they decided to make one was because of the overwhelming number of requests they had for it after MS's started being delivered. These are words that I recall hearing Elon and JB say on several occasions.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Where was it established as fact that the vehicle in question is a Model X? It could be a modified Model X, it could be something else entirely. I'll agree it's very possible that it's at least a modified form of the X. But everything you just posted assumed a fact that is (in fact ) speculation only.

... I'd LOVE to be a fly on the wall at Tesla as they read through these threads.

It is not speculation that the shapes of the falcon wings are there (at least roughly), both on the mule and the November update. It also makes it a fact that this part of the marketing image used by Tesla has made it into hardware, in some form. That said, I agree it is speculation the mule is a Model X. Although - given everything - it seems pretty compelling speculation.

Though based on some hints, the nose cone being gone is a lot wilder speculation, of course - hence I place only some likelihood on it. A re-designed nose with some new brand design seems much more likely than, say, just a logo and lots of body painted metal.

 

[AlMc]

Until I hear it directly from TM what was driving around the shipyard the other day it is speculation. It probably was an X but no one on these forums knows for sure. (OK, well maybe Nigel as I think he is really EM in disguise:biggrin