Where is the Model X Test Mule? Is there one?

[TEG]

X!!

View attachment 70927

I know you were likely joking, but FWIW:

Tesla Motors Trailer | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

I think it may say "Xecutive Racing Trailer"

Toy Haulers : Enclosed Cargo Trailers : Utility Snowmobile Trailers : Mirage Trailers

 

[SamusAranX]

That picture is, originally, a "Photoshop" though. Car companies often swap elements like wheels in such PR images in post-processing, so it is hard to say how accurate. Equally, the iPhone video has pixels of the wheels blurrying into the tire, making it very hard to determine where one starts and the other ends. Also, the angle of the image has a lot to do with it, as does the apparent camo paneling on the front and back of the car.

This image manipulation is with one assumption of where the wheel pixels end and tires start and the wheelbase isn't far off when compared to a real photograph of the prototype, although even there the different angles of the car - and probably different lens geographies etc. - over-emphasize or hide certain features of the shape. E.g. the Model X original prototype front overhang looks a lot less than it really is because the image is, actually, from a slight rear angle:

I would say changes in wheelbase are possible, of course, and we know Tesla has re-designed the front and probably the back of the car since the prototype, so changes in overhang(s) certainly are possible too. But I'm not sure the video is any confirmation of any major changes in the axel distance?

I mentioned this in the other thread, but even if the angle is off by 10%, that would only make a 1.5% difference in the apparent length in the video. The picture that's been floating around is close enough to dead-on that it is ok to make comparisons with.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I mentioned this in the other thread, but even if the angle is off by 10%, that would only make a 1.5% difference in the apparent length in the video. The picture that's been floating around is close enough to dead-on that it is ok to make comparisons with.

I am not qualified to debate that math, but looking at the original prototype photo upwards in the thread, angle certainly makes half of its front overhang almost disappear. It makes things like that harder to measure.

As for measuring the sides, the resolution of the video is so low at the distance that single pixels alone create major margins of error.

Changing wheelbase certainly is possible, because we know the final design has changed, but I'm not so sure the conclusion of a "smaller car" is the likely scenario.

 

[sigurdi]

If it is only slightly off dead center, the size will differ.
Made a comparison between some Model S and Prototype X, and the Beta X.
It was mentioned early that the Prototype had a longer wheelbase than the model S, but would be the same on production vehicle.
Comparison to the prototype will give a bigger overhang.

Good shot from the side, would not show much of the rear and the tow hitch should bearly be visible.

Fun to make some pictures with rulers on.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

It was mentioned early that the Prototype had a longer wheelbase than the model S, but would be the same on production vehicle.
Comparison to the prototype will give a bigger overhang.

That, certainly, would be a good explanation.

Thank you for the illustrative pictures too.

 

[Nevek]

The 1-minute Supercharger Map "leak," now this skate-park UDO (Unidentified Driving Object) footage. Who even needs Tweets any more?
It's like being trolled by a latter-day Howard Hughes (or a former-day Hari Seldon)... and I love it!

It is a good Foundation to cook your Goose.

 

[JRP3]

Obviously Tesla has developed shape shifting technology.

 

[MacroP]

I seriously doubt this is something that Model 3 would have - let alone a prototype of it:

View attachment 70956

Why not for a prototype? - not uncommon to see a trailer hanging behind a prototype. Doesn't mean that the final model has the tow hitch. It means they can tow, what is essentially, a portable dyno/load bank. They look like a compact camping trailer. Just a large rolling resistor bank that can load up the the tow vehicle. Great for real-world validating of the power-train and also the cooling system (electric is no different here to ICE in that regard). You see it from time to time here in Northern Australia - many Asian and Euro companies do their hot weather testing in the Aussie northern outback where they think no one is watching

 

[SamusAranX]

I am not qualified to debate that math, but looking at the original prototype photo upwards in the thread, angle certainly makes half of its front overhang almost disappear. It makes things like that harder to measure.

As for measuring the sides, the resolution of the video is so low at the distance that single pixels alone create major margins of error.

Changing wheelbase certainly is possible, because we know the final design has changed, but I'm not so sure the conclusion of a "smaller car" is the likely scenario.

"the resolution of the video is so low at the distance that single pixels alone create major margins of error"

huh???? no they don't. There's plenty of resolution, and a single pixel isn't going to make a difference.

"makes half of its front overhang almost disappear"

Why does the front overhang matter? we're measuring from wheel to wheel.

"I am not qualified to debate that math, but looking at the original prototype photo upwards in the thread"

I actually did the math. There's a 1.5% error in the distance at most. 1.5% isn't significant when the difference between the wheelbase in the video and the normal wheelbase is ~20%.

- - - Updated - - -

If it is only slightly off dead center, the size will differ.
Made a comparison between some Model S and Prototype X, and the Beta X.
It was mentioned early that the Prototype had a longer wheelbase than the model S, but would be the same on production vehicle.
Comparison to the prototype will give a bigger overhang.

Good shot from the side, would not show much of the rear and the tow hitch should bearly be visible.

Fun to make some pictures with rulers on.
View attachment 70958

What was the point of adding those lines if you aren't going to line up the wheels and scale them to fit?

 

[chickensevil]

"the resolution of the video is so low at the distance that single pixels alone create major margins of error"

huh???? no they don't. There's plenty of resolution, and a single pixel isn't going to make a difference.

"makes half of its front overhang almost disappear"

Why does the front overhang matter? we're measuring from wheel to wheel.

"I am not qualified to debate that math, but looking at the original prototype photo upwards in the thread"

I actually did the math. There's a 1.5% error in the distance at most. 1.5% isn't significant when the difference between the wheelbase in the video and the normal wheelbase is ~20%.

- - - Updated - - -



What was the point of adding those lines if you aren't going to line up the wheels and scale them to fit?

He did line up the wheels... Look at the rears in all the photos, except the bottom one which for some reason he lined it up with the front. The scale is also correct given that the bounding lines one the left and right edge of the wheels line up with the line itself. We are assuming all of these are 21" s but that is the only flaw here. Point he was trying to show was that just a little angling difference throws the scale off by more than 1%

 

[MacroP]

As everyone can see - the Model S has its body pushed much further back than in the X (and we assume they share the same wheelbase). This stands out where the distance from front wheel to the front of the front door differs 'a lot' - maybe six inches. So in the X this difference is added to the rear wheels. To me the video shows the front half of an X Chassis joined to the rear half of an S chassis which brings the overall wheelbase down. That's why the rear of that prototype with an X boxy has been hacked up to fit onto the shorter wheelbase skateboard.

The elevated front-end has me intrigued more than anything as well as the circle work. So this is short wheelbase FWD power train testing for another manufacturer - there I said it :tongue:

 

[Hugh Mannity]

Best thread ever, it amazes me how much work goes into a lot of your posts! Well done

 

[SamusAranX]

He did line up the wheels... Look at the rears in all the photos, except the bottom one which for some reason he lined it up with the front. The scale is also correct given that the bounding lines one the left and right edge of the wheels line up with the line itself. We are assuming all of these are 21" s but that is the only flaw here. Point he was trying to show was that just a little angling difference throws the scale off by more than 1%

We must be looking at different pictures, because in the ones I saw, none of the Model X pictures had their wheels scaled and lined up correctly (rear wheel or front wheel)

Also, a little angling difference doesn't make a big difference in length, as I've already mentioned. edit: but it would be nice to know exactly what angle it is off by.

 

[JRP3]

Looks to me as if the front wheels of the top three images all line up, as does the front wheel of the bottom most image, yet the rear wheel of the bottom most picture does not, which demonstrates how a small angle can change the apparent wheelbase.

 

[MikeL]

Best thread ever, it amazes me how much work goes into a lot of your posts! Well done

I think it was Cobra Kai that said, about 20 pages ago, when there's actually something to talk about, we'll crash this site ! I say crash the whole internet. Haha

anyway fyi if you're looking for it, the embedded video is on page 23 - thanks to Nigel

 

[sigurdi]

Explenation to the picture with 6 cars for the one not reading in original post.

I tired to make the wheels the same size, but the angle on pictures maks one larger than the other if I keep the aspect ratio on the pictures.
The topp prototype picture is alligned with weelbase but the hight is off, compared to Model S. (Have picture with myself on the side to calculate hight, (shoot at Hathorne))
The bottom picture of the prototype is lined up withe the lenght of the model S (better hight measurement) to see if it is something in the early sayings. The weelbase on the prototype was larger than on Model S, and this will not be the same on final versjon.

The picture of Camo car is alligned after wheel in the back because the measurement was better on that wheel, since you can se most of the rear the angle is slightly opposit to the white prototype.
The picture is taken with a angle horisontal and vertikal and the car driving in a angle, front wheel was off in shape and with this alligned none lines will line up.
The bottom picture is just to show how much a angle will give in lenght difference.
Alligning the back wheel the hight and size gets way off.
If I get time I will try to have more fun with Autocad/Photoshop and some more pictures.
And no sientific dokumentation, just for fun in the late hours after wife and kids fell asleap and the house was quiet.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Why not for a prototype? - not uncommon to see a trailer hanging behind a prototype. Doesn't mean that the final model has the tow hitch. It means they can tow, what is essentially, a portable dyno/load bank. They look like a compact camping trailer. Just a large rolling resistor bank that can load up the the tow vehicle. Great for real-world validating of the power-train and also the cooling system (electric is no different here to ICE in that regard). You see it from time to time here in Northern Australia - many Asian and Euro companies do their hot weather testing in the Aussie northern outback where they think no one is watching

Fair enough, that is a good point. As is the fact - acknowledged elsewhere - that car companies do test future powertrains using bolted-on exteriors from existing car generations. In theory, this could be some future Tesla powertrain disguised as a camoed Model X. It is possible. Given the timing though, tow-hitching beta Model X's appearance expected any day now and Model 3 being years away, I would bet on this being a Model X mule.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

"the resolution of the video is so low at the distance that single pixels alone create major margins of error"

huh???? no they don't. There's plenty of resolution, and a single pixel isn't going to make a difference.

I would argue differently. At that distance and with that camera, the effective resolution is the video is fairly low, no matter whatever technical resolution the camera may have had. Case in point: The wheels we are using to measure against seem to fill the entire wheelwells and also hit the ground. That can't be true in reality. The bright pixels of the wheels bleed outwards and drown out the dark pixels of the tires almost entirely at times. In there even the assumed difference of a pixel or few makes a big difference on how many wheels long we estimate the wheelbase to be.

"makes half of its front overhang almost disappear"

Why does the front overhang matter? we're measuring from wheel to wheel.

Perhaps it doesn't matter to your calculation, but it matters to the wider analysis of what the dimensions of this prototype are. As sigurdi's photos point out, even slightly off-center camera can certainly make a car look shorter or longer. I was and am interested in deciphering the dimensions of the entire car.

"I am not qualified to debate that math, but looking at the original prototype photo upwards in the thread"

I actually did the math. There's a 1.5% error in the distance at most. 1.5% isn't significant when the difference between the wheelbase in the video and the normal wheelbase is ~20%.

I can't comment on your math, as I haven't verified it or the assumptions it is based on. I welcome it, though, and assume the trig is right. I don't think it takes into account various lens geometries that affect things when comparing near and far shots made with different cameras, though.

What puzzles me most is the ~20%. Where does that come from? I agree a 20% difference in wheelbase certainly would be significant, but can the video support such a calculation? I think the point isn't has the wheelbase changed, because as sigurdi points out certainly the wheelbase of the production Model X can change compared to the prototype alongside with many details, but has it changed significantly enough to suggest this is not a Model X? 20% difference, certainly, would be such a suggestion...

But where does the ~20% come from?

In this image, with one assumption on how large the wheels may actually be if we try to factor out the pixel bleed, the difference looks more like less than 4%, without taking into consideration possible lens aberrations, difference of angle etc. This image also shows how much difference camera angle makes to the difficulty of determining the car length by making the mule look actually longer than the Model X prototype (which due to camo it probably is but likely not that much...).

 

[Nixter]

I found this overlay picture

on another site that makes it seem a bit larger in length, height and in the rear end area compared to the prototype.

 

[sigurdi]

Only if the prototype have the same wheelbase, if wheelbase on prototype is longer then the camo will be almost same lenght and hight.