Where is the production ramp?

[Garlan Garner]

Are you trying to say the two cannot both be true?

Tesla chose a vendor, Tesla chose a level of oversight, the vendor failed to meet their obligation, Tesla took resposibily for their role, Tesla fixed the issue .

Cause: vendor's failure to meet specification
Responsibility: Tesla

A captain is responsible for what happens on their ship. That does not mean they are the one that lost the anchor and chain.

Why is this so difficult to understand?

Things that happen under your roof is YOUR responsibility. Its like that in life and its like that in business.

The dog ate my homework.....does not work. You are responsible for your homework even if the dog did eat it.


Below is Musks statement....

"Musk pointed to a subcontractor that he said “dropped the ball” on a project involving automation to assemble the Model 3’s battery pack, which uses a new cell format as well as a new pack architecture."

Pushback: Tesla Provides Details on Model 3 Production Delays and “Bottlenecks”


It doesn't matter at this point. The question is: now that Tesla fixed the issue under its own roof......where are they now? Where is the ramp? That's the topic of the thread.

 

[mongo]

Why is this so difficult to understand?

Things that happen under your roof is YOUR responsibility. Its like that in life and its like that in business.

The dog ate my homework.....does not work. You are responsible for your homework even if the dog did eat it.

It's hard because I can't follow what your point is.

What does a person dog relationship have to do with a company to company contract?
Why are you saying "under your roof"? Did the supplier develop and build the module assembly line on site? Every similar system I know of is built at the supplier's facility, tested, and then shipped, reassembled, and verified. It was likely at that last step which should have been a check off confirmation of previously tested performance that Tesla found out the supplier was off specification.

From the article you referenced

He also noted that a team of Tesla engineers has had to rewrite all the software for module production from scratch due to supplier negligence.

A dog eating homework is not negligence on the part of the dog, but on the person leaving the homework in a space where the dog can get to it. A dog is under no obligation to not eat homework.

A company not meeting contractual obligations and likely not informing the client of the issue in a reasonable timeframe is not negligence on the part of the client, it is negligence on the part of the supplier.

 

[smaapark]

Why is this so difficult to understand?

Things that happen under your roof is YOUR responsibility. Its like that in life and its like that in business.

The dog ate my homework.....does not work. You are responsible for your homework even if the dog did eat it.


Below is Musks statement....

"Musk pointed to a subcontractor that he said “dropped the ball” on a project involving automation to assemble the Model 3’s battery pack, which uses a new cell format as well as a new pack architecture."

Pushback: Tesla Provides Details on Model 3 Production Delays and “Bottlenecks”


It doesn't matter at this point. The question is: now that Tesla fixed the issue under its own roof......where are they now? Where is the ramp? That's the topic of the thread.

Simple. Where are we? Correction......Where is Tesla?



Any factual details?

Didn't Tesla address this in their last earnings call? They said that 5k a week production would happen by end of Q1 and that they would update the real time production status in early January. Waiting until then would probably make more sense than spewing all this negativity ALL DAY and ALL NIGHT long. Your posts make this forum hard to bear and unenjoyable to read. Jeez, lighten up...

 

[SteveG3]

Why is this so difficult to understand?

Things that happen under your roof is YOUR responsibility. Its like that in life and its like that in business.

The dog ate my homework.....does not work. You are responsible for your homework even if the dog did eat it.


Below is Musks statement....

"Musk pointed to a subcontractor that he said “dropped the ball” on a project involving automation to assemble the Model 3’s battery pack, which uses a new cell format as well as a new pack architecture."

Pushback: Tesla Provides Details on Model 3 Production Delays and “Bottlenecks”


It doesn't matter at this point. The question is: now that Tesla fixed the issue under its own roof......where are they now? Where is the ramp? That's the topic of the thread.

I can see where you could get the impression that Musk was saying something contrary to your views on responsibility from that comment you've quoted at the beginning of the call.

However, he went into more detail later on in the call, and expressed a view that seems strikingly in line with your own,

"Alexander Eugene Potter - Piper Jaffray & Co.

Yeah, thanks very much. I was wondering, I guess, to the extent that these production bottlenecks are ultimately somebody else's fault, is it worth your time trying to claw back some of the costs that you're presumably incurring due to the subcontractor, I guess, dropping the ball, as you put it?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yeah. I think, first of all, I think at the end of the day, everything is our fault – and my fault most of all. If we pick the wrong subcontractor, we're the fault. So, I don't want to – just to be externalizing responsibility, really it's our fault for picking the wrong supplier and then not realizing it until way late in the game. We will be able to claw back some amounts, but it certainly will not make up for lost revenue, lost free cash flow. So – some amount, yeah, but it's not going to matter that much."

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Didn't Tesla address this in their last earnings call? They said that 5k a week production would happen by end of Q1 and that they would update the real time production status in early January. Waiting until then would probably make more sense than spewing all this negativity ALL DAY and ALL NIGHT long. Your posts make this forum hard to bear and unenjoyable to read. Jeez, lighten up...

Edit - Scratch the below, it's 5k/week by the end of Q1 2018.

Elon said 5k by the end of the year, but when pressed, he didn't clarify if it was per month or per week. My guess is they're at least hoping for 5k per month, but they wouldn't complain about, or even rule out, 5k per week.

 

[SteveG3]

Elon said 5k by the end of the year, but when pressed, he didn't clarify if it was per month or per week. My guess is they're at least hoping for 5k per month, but they wouldn't complain about, or even rule out, 5k per week.

On the last earnings call? I don't think that is correct. I think they were quite clear that new guidance for 5K/week is late Q1 2018.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

On the last earnings call? I don't think that is correct. I think they were quite clear that new guidance for 5K/week is late Q1 2018.

You're right, Elon didn't say anything about what their year end estimates were. The only specific number they gave was 5k/month by the end of Q1 2018.

James J. Albertine - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Great. Thank you and good afternoon everyone. I wanted to ask with respect to – and Elon, thank you for doing the deeper dive into the zones and the bottlenecks. How does this change the trajectory or does it change the trajectory from a margin perspective on the Model 3? And then maybe as an aside, can you tell us where you are today on a production per week basis and where you expect to be by the end of 2017, just so we can get an idea of the ramp? Thanks.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

I don't want to go into like the week by week stuff. The reason it's tricky is because people just read too much into it. The ramp curve is a step exponential, so it means like as you alleviate a constraint, the production suddenly jumps to a much higher number. And so, although it looks a little staggered if you sort of zoom out, that production ramp is exponential with week over week increases.

I'd like to state a number at the end of Q4, but there's too much uncertainty right now to give that with any precision. Now I do feel confident about the end of Q1, maybe sooner. But really, we're like in a vertical climb here. So it's really hard to say. Yeah.

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

 

[Garlan Garner]

Didn't Tesla address this in their last earnings call? They said that 5k a week production would happen by end of Q1 and that they would update the real time production status in early January. Waiting until then would probably make more sense than spewing all this negativity ALL DAY and ALL NIGHT long. Your posts make this forum hard to bear and unenjoyable to read. Jeez, lighten up...

I know you are new...So where is the production ramp?

Why is it negative? Because its not in favor of Tesla?

 

[Garlan Garner]

On the last earnings call? I don't think that is correct. I think they were quite clear that new guidance for 5K/week is late Q1 2018.

So where is the production ramp right now?

 

[run-the-joules]

So where is the production ramp right now?

Asking outsiders on a Internet forums is a strategy that is almost certain to succeed.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Asking outsiders on a Internet forums is a strategy that is almost certain to succeed.

I'm hoping that either an insider or a very informed person would answer. There are some in this forum.

Like the person who got the ailing gentlemen his red Tesla Model 3 early. That was absolutely great and obviously done by folks with inside influence. Great move on Teslas part.

 

[SteveG3]

So where is the production ramp right now?

you can see my view on that in post #11 in this thread.

were you surprised that Elon has the same view as you do re the question of responsibility regarding the bottleneck discussed on the last earnings call?

 

[run-the-joules]

I'm hoping that either an insider or a very informed person would answer. There are some in this forum.

You should know by now that hope has no place in the model 3 reservation queue. Abandon all hope, ye who place your deposits here.

 

[Garlan Garner]

You should know by now that hope has no place in the model 3 reservation queue. Abandon all hope, ye who place your deposits here.

Thanks for your honesty.

 

[Garlan Garner]

you can see my view on that in post #11 in this thread.

were you surprised that Elon has the same view as you do re the question of responsibility regarding the bottleneck discussed on the last earnings call?

Thanks for the response in post 11.

 

[Garlan Garner]

This is what I'm hoping.

I'm hoping that Tesla can produce 400K model 3's in 2018. That way everyone currently in the long line will get their March 2016 reservation by at least 2019.

That now appears impossible.

50K cars made before Dec 31'st this year would have given it a chance.


Since we don't know where production is right now....I'm now hoping that by lets say.......June 2019 all reservationists will have their cars.

I'm pulling for customers as Tesla already has its success and I'm ecstatic about their success. My stock portfolio has done well. Now its the customers turn. IMO. More than Tesla team deserves a smile and for their dreams to come true.

Can you imagine 400K more people and possibly their families smiling. That's about a million people with smiles from ear to ear.
Those smiles could light up the planet amidst all of the bad things happening right now in the news and life itself.

If that's negative......my apologies.​

 

[SteveG3]

This is what I'm hoping.

I'm hoping that Tesla can produce 400K model 3's in 2018. That way everyone currently in the long line will get their March 2016 reservation by at least 2019.

That now appears impossible.

50K cars made before Dec 31'st this year would have given it a chance.


Since we don't know where production is right now....I'm now hoping that by lets say.......June 2019 all reservationists will have their cars.

I'm pulling for customers as Tesla already has its success and I'm ecstatic about their success. My stock portfolio has done well. Now its the customers turn.

If that's negative......my apologies.​

Yes, it would be nice and is reasonably likely, but not a given, that by June 2019 reservation holders who placed their orders in March 2016 will get there cars. Only caveat on that, I'm not sure what dates people out of North America have been given- there may be some markets that have been told already for quite some time that they will get their cars in 2019 at the earliest. If that's the case, perhaps, people in those markets who reserved in March 2016 wont have their cars until after June 2019.

fwiw, saying 400K cars delivered by the end of 2018 "now appears impossible" is not negative at all... it is both rational and in keeping with the latest guidance from Tesla which was shared in early November.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I would love to see a million

Yes, it would be nice and is reasonably likely, but not a given, that by June 2019 reservation holders who placed their orders in March 2016 will get there cars. Only caveat on that, I'm not sure what dates people out of North America have been given- there may be some markets that have been told already for quite some time that they will get their cars in 2019 at the earliest. If that's the case, perhaps, people in those markets who reserved in March 2016 wont have their cars until after June 2019.

fwiw, saying 400K cars delivered by the end of 2018 is not negative at all... it is both rational and in keeping with the latest guidance from Tesla which was shared in early November.

Thanks Steve.

That would mean that Tesla would have to average for the year 33K cars per month. That's pretty aggressive.

It would be great for a million people to feel like this guy on stage next year. I'm not trying to be prude......but he has a billion reasons to be happy and he deserves it. He worked hard.

Tesla please lets spread the same smile and joy that this guy has to a million people with 400K reservations fulfilled.

Maybe I will change the thread question to this which is more appropriate to my real concerned.
Where is the production ramp as it pertains to a million smiles?

 

[SteveG3]

I would love to see a million

Thanks Steve.

That would mean that Tesla would have to average for the year 33K cars per month. That's pretty aggressive.

It would be great for a million people to feel like this guy on stage next year. I'm not trying to be prude......but he has a billion reasons to be happy and he deserves it. He worked hard.

Tesla please lets spread the same smile and joy that this guy has to a million people with 400K reservations fulfilled.

a million? huh? you mean your "smiles" comment a post or two back? don't remember anyone in this thread ever talking about a million deliveries.

re your

~"Thanks Steve.

That would mean averaging 33K cars per month" comment...

again, huh? that doesn't correspond to anything I've discussed here, yet, you wrote that as if it were in response to something I said.

no big deal re any of this... just wanting to avoid confusion.

 

[Garlan Garner]

a million? huh? you mean your "smiles" comment a post or two back? don't remember anyone in this thread ever talking about a million deliveries.

re your ~"thanks Steve. that would mean averaging 33K cars per month" comment... again, huh? that doesn't correspond to anything I've discussed here, yet, you wrote that as if it were in response to something I said.

no big deal re any of this... just wanting to avoid confusion.

No Steve I'm not replying to your post to disagree with you or anything like that..

Concerning the 33K cars. All I did was take 400K and divide it by 12 to get how many cars per month that need to be made and that's 33K.

Concerning the million smiles.....400K people / families getting their cars would yield 400K times 2 or so per family being happy to get their model 3. That's all.

I have absolutely no disagreements with you at all.