Why are you so evasive and vague in your predictions? What % of the global automobile market sales will be pure BEVs in 5 years? How about 7 since you say a year or two longer?
Or, why don't you just name some countries or regions? Willing to predict that 50.1+% of new consumer automobile sales in the US will be pure BEVs by July 2027? As I said, no, won't happen.
Because I'm not a crystal ball, I can't see the future precisely as it will happen. But I can read data and analyze trends and measure rates of growth & declines, and the DATA supports BEV sales eclipsing ICE sales (of new vehicles) within the next half decade or so. There is no way to determine if it will be exactly in 5 years, but it will happen sometime around 5 years from now.
You keep making up reasons for it NOT to happen, from your posts above:
- Too many people own apartments
- The ICE industry will fight back and won't allow it
- There aren't enough BEV's in the top 25 best selling cars list
- Electric utilities will speak up and won't be prepared
- Too many groups of people range from completely anti-EV to ignorant or apathetic
- BEV's are too expensive, not enough people can afford them
These are subjective indicators, not predictive. To be blunt, none of the above matters, the
DATA is what matters when predicting trendlines.
With regards to the cost of BEV's, economies of scale and declining cost curves will bring the costs to manufacture BEV's down below ICE in the next couple of years. This is also a trendline supported by the data. Once the supply shortages are solved and BEV materials are being made at larger scales we'll see costs of BEV's begin to come down.
All of the reasons you give are true to various degrees, but none of it will be enough to stop the trendlines from progressing the way they are trending. These little reasons will prevent 100% adoption for a very long time most likely, but they won't hold the wave of BEV's below 50%. Not even close.
Like any other exponential growth curve it accelerates past the halfway point but then falls short of and plateaus before 100%. We still have horses in the world, doesn't mean the automobile didn't take over transportation. Flip phones still get sold, doesn't mean their marketshare of new cel sales didn't fall into the very low single digits. There will always be holdouts who either can't or won't buy BEV's, they'll keep buying used ICE cars and pay for expensive gasoline from the few gas stations which still exist once the world has moved on. None of that means the sales trends aren't correct or real.
You are reasoning from emotions, not statistics. Sometimes in life the data, no matter how ludicrous it seems or feels, is simply....
true.