Who gets reservations filled first?

[Fairchild]

This is such Texas BS.

This is Texas bull *sugar*.

While it works to open a Texas factory, Tesla still can't sell cars directly to customers in Texas—and won't be able to for some time. The Texas legislature has run out of time to make the necessary changes to state franchise laws in its current session, and it won't reconvene again until 2023, The Drive reported Thursday.

If I were Musk, I would not allow the sale of any Teslas to Texans until the legislature changes the law. Skip over the Texas CYBRTRK orders. Get Texans clammoring to they're archaic legislators.

 

[mark95476]

I've got a tri-motor reservation and hope it comes first.

Single motor sort of matches what we see with M3 and MY SR models. It's not super popular and debatable if the manufacturing disruptions are worth it for minimal volumes. Of course, 7.5% of 1M is a huge number of CTs so I don't expect it to be dropped.

As of today per a crowdsourced Cybertruck reservation tally Tesla has already accumulated over 1 million Cybertruck reservations.

Breakdown:
The tally also keeps track of the different trims, and the mix has stayed consistent with 48% for the Dual Motor, 44.5% for the Tri-motor, and only 7.5% of reservation holders are ordering the base single-motor version.

I am sure there are a lot of double and even some triple orders, as well as dropouts who settled for. Chop 30% off your estimated date of delivery and let's hope they move to two shifts quickly.

For all of you plotters. If you ordered or switched to Tri-motor you can multiply your delivery number by 44.5% to get a more accurate number inasmuch as Tri-motors will come off the line first.

For example. My original reservation number
213,334 X 45.5% = 97,066. Tri-motor factor.

97, 066 X 60% (30% duplicates and dropouts) =
58,239, a more accurate assessment of where you stand in line.

Of course, it's really all a COVID horse race.

 

[jeremiebutac]

no surch thing as reservations first. They usually ship to east coast first and then west coat will be last.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

no surch thing as reservations first. They usually ship to east coast first and then west coat will be last.

Pardon my ignorance but when have they done that? Model 3 was west to east, with employees and previous Tesla owners getting first deliveries.

Dan

 

[jeremiebutac]

Pardon my ignorance but when have they done that? Model 3 was west to east, with employees and previous Tesla owners getting first deliveries.

Dan

From why they are doing now with mode y and 3 they are going east to west. So they can push out cars faster end of quarter sales

 

[Marving11]

From why they are doing now with mode y and 3 they are going east to west. So they can push out cars faster end of quarter sales

What they are doing now is BS!

 

[jeremiebutac]

Yes my wife has been waiting on her mode y since April and still haven’t received a car or vin people on east coast place there order late late may and already getting a vin. California people are mad

 

[EVHokie07]

Yes my wife has been waiting on her mode y since April and still haven’t received a car or vin people on east coast place there order late late may and already getting a vin. California people are mad

yep, I'd be pretty pissed off!!!!

 

[jeremiebutac]

yea so it will be the same for cybertruck also. Just my guess since thats what there doing currently.

 

[Glenn T]

Rumor has it the dual motors. At least that’s what a couple of sales people told me, for I was inquiring about the tri-motor.

 

[jbarnette]

Dual motor first mostly due to new batteries needed for 500 mi. range of Tri-motor. Waiting for tri-motor and Texas direct sales hoping to pickup at factory.

 

[theBurtReynold]

Dual motor first mostly due to new batteries needed for 500 mi. range of Tri-motor. Waiting for tri-motor and Texas direct sales hoping to pickup at factory.

Agreed.

The delivery dates for refreshed Model S Plaid+ have slipped to mid 2022, and the primary difference between Plaid and Plaid+ is the 4860s.

I’m not holding my breath for my CyberTruck Tri-motor until Q3 of 2022.

Especially considering the battery demand of Semi (and the value of that product / market) … CyberTruck Tri might take a backseat for a few months

 

[fiveten]

Dual motor first mostly due to new batteries needed for 500 mi. range of Tri-motor. Waiting for tri-motor and Texas direct sales hoping to pickup at factory.

I say that they should build a few of the tri motors first (maybe up through RN112746519) to generate some good buzz and then start making the versions that they can build the most of the quickest.

 

[repoanything]

I say that they should build a few of the tri motors first (maybe up through RN112746519) to generate some good buzz and then start making the versions that they can build the most of the quickest.

I agree they should build a few Tri-Motors first just to make sure everything is working good but I think building to RN112744365 would be just fine.

 

[Fairchild]

Any comments about the order of delivery are mere speculation. At this point, NO ONE knows the delivery schedule, especially not the salespeople or the service people at the dealership. In the past, after reading this forum and others, I used to inform the sales folks of things they didn't know, i.e. the release of the Raven mode. I am sure it varies by location, but I have found the sales and service people to be the least and almost last informed. Musk and gang keep these things close to the chest, without a PR department, and at this point, secondary to economics and battery availability, they might not even know.

Speculation of future behavior is usually best based on previous behavior and if that were the case, we would see the most expensive model (Tri-motor) coming out of the factory first . That would be supportive of a profit-conscious Board of Directors, getting the most competitive model on the streets first and it would definitely support Tesla's MO (Roadster, S, X, 3 Y and the way the 3 and the Y were introduced). As in the 3 and the Y, the single motor unit could even disappear or be rendered to special order, especially with its low range.

Understandably, batteries appear to be a constraint, but something they have been aware of and working to fulfill since long before battery day. Recent patent filings demonstrate some exciting AI in the CYBRTRK, including facial recognition to adjust driver and passenger comforts and the possibility that the Tri-Motor range may exceed 600 miles. It just keeps getting better, and the competition is still far off in the rearview mirror.

 

[Fairchild]

POP. Just like that. The Model S PLAID goes up $10K. Does that mean those who ordered it for the smaller amount also pay the additional $10K?

Let's hope the Musk and the bean counters are smart to not put the $10k POP on the Tri-motor CYBRTRK, putting it out of range for the proposed tax credit.

 

[mark95476]

You snooze, you lose. Reservations get it at the price they ordered. People reserving after the release can get their MS Plaid at ($X + 10k). They can take their chances and hope for a price decrease.

I'm glad I have a reservation for CT at the original reveal price and don't have to pay attention. Prices will fluctuate as always, but I think I'll come out ahead.

No doubt that $10k is a substantial amount of money, however, Tesla wasn't really affected when the $7500 federal tax credit went away for them. I still reserved a MY and the $10k tax credit didn't exist when I reserved my CT.

POP. Just like that. The Model S PLAID goes up $10K. Does that mean those who ordered it for the smaller amount also pay the additional $10K?

Let's hope the Musk and the bean counters are smart to not put the $10k POP on the Tri-motor CYBRTRK, putting it out of range for the proposed tax credit.

 

[S3XY]

Nearly everyone can develop a rationale that puts them near the head of the line.

If CT roll-out is like previous Tesla vehicles, it will seem nearly completely random.

Some frustration stems from “culture shock”. Tesla produces to customer order. It does not have independent dealers that compete with each other. Tesla delivery points do not have acres of new vehicles waiting for a buyer.

Over the years I have observed these factors at work:

STRONG

• Geography / Calendar. Vehicles are shipped to most distant locations from the factory at the start of the quarter. By the end, delivery will be to the places with lowest shipping time. Thus quarter-end and year-end blow-outs in Fremont where customers in a nearby facility receive Model 3 and now Y as they are completed.
• Profit. Higher trim levels - Tri-Motor - are more profitable. These are produced in highest volume and delivered as soon as possible.
• Batch production. Tesla prefers longish runs with same battery, motors, paint (not relevant for CT), interior and wheels. If your order matches an early batch, that’s good news. Else you may see others receive their vehicle soon after making their reservation.

Weak

• Loyalty. Those who already own a Tesla vehicle seem to get preference.
• Simplest purchase. If your order includes trade-in and/or loan or lease, it may be delayed.
• Ease of scheduling delivery. The harder it is for Tesla to quickly set the day and time to deliver your vehicle, the more likely it is they will end up selling that VIN to someone else who wants the configuration and can close the deal shortly after it’s on-site.
• Tesla incompetence. Tesla can simply mess things up. Your order is somehow never matched to a VIN. Or that VIN gets mysteriously reassigned to someone else. Or the vehicle is damaged in transit. Or the person who was processing your order is suddenly ill or experiences career change and nobody picks up the pieces.

I pretty much agree with all of this except the Geography/Calendar part. This is only true for existing models and is to maximize deliveries in a quarter (see "the wave"). For new model ramping they tended to deliver closer to the factory first so if any issues are discovered they can be brought back to the factory for troubleshooting. Also, I think Loyalty has more weight than you suggest. Previous owners already know how things work and what to expect. They are better qualified to determine what is an issue and what is "just how a Tesla works" and won't needlessly call their Service or Sales Center. It's also likely that someone that has multiple CT reservations will receive one of them based on all the factors you listed but the rest of their reservations might be pushed back in the queue to some extent. They will try to satisfy those that need it as a daily driver first versus the Tesla Network business prospector's.

 

[Kentnt]

So is there any advantage in upgrading my reservation (made 8:00am the morning after the reveal) from the dual-motor to the tri-motor, or does the complete randomness of this distribution model make that a stupid effort? I’m in Northern CA (< 100 miles from Fremont - likely irrelevant), but more concerned with getting the vehicle sooner than later, and less concerned about the price. Throwing another wrench in the works - will be moving to Hawaii about the time they (projected) start shipping these. I can still use a CA address to accept delivery (and ship it myself if it speeds up the process). Trying to figure out if I should stick to my dual motor order or upgrade to tri-motor if that gets me higher in the queue (without messing up my delivery).

I live in Hawaii. In 2017 I shipped my 2013 Model S from Virginia. That was a mistake. I should have sold the car before I moved, and taken delivery on a new Tesla.

The car was never the same, Tesla replaced the battery in 2018. I truly believe the battery was damaged during shopping but have no hard evidence.

My recommendation is let Tesla ship the truck to HI.

 

[digitalboi]