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Who is past 50K Miles and NOT buying the extended warranty? Did the gamble pay off?

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I'm fast approaching 50K miles and am considering rolling the dice and NOT getting the extended warranty for $4000. My logic is that since I will probably do the next 50K in about 18 months, it's slightly less likely I will have an issue than if it took the full 4 years. Of course this could be flawed thinking as 50K is still 50K miles...one major issue could blow past $4000.

However, I would love to hear about any others that did NOT get the warranty, what your milage is now, and what your out of pocket as been so far on warrantable items, compared to the $4000.
 
I did get the warranty (called EXTENDED SERVICE AGREEMENT by Tesla) when it was $2400, and I think the extended service agreement is available within 30 days warranty expiration. If available, it should be under My Tesla -> My Dashboard -> SERVICES SIGN UP on TeslaMotors.com. And I did buy mine in Arizona. It’s not available in all states. I have an early car 12/2012 production and the $2400 will be well worth it considering the small issues (such as dash rattles) that I have taken the car in for. I would have also payed $4000 for it, considering the number of small items I take my car in for.
 
Now that the drivetrain has an 8 yr, unlimited mile warranty, I think the risk of foregoing the extended warranty is a lot less than it was. Still not sure what I'll do when it comes time for the expiration.

The mechanical engineer in me tells me that most electrical/mechanical failures happen early on, then the risk of failure is quite low for awhile, then at some point the risk for failure rises again. Electrical components should have a significantly longer lifespan than mechanical components. Moreover, the most expensive components in the car are drivetrain-related, which have the unlimited mile 8-yr warranty. Big question mark is: what is considered a drivetrain component? I would assume battery pack, inverter, reduction gearing, and motor. But does it include the charger?
 
Now that the drivetrain has an 8 yr, unlimited mile warranty, I think the risk of foregoing the extended warranty is a lot less than it was. Still not sure what I'll do when it comes time for the expiration.

The mechanical engineer in me tells me that most electrical/mechanical failures happen early on, then the risk of failure is quite low for awhile, then at some point the risk for failure rises again. Electrical components should have a significantly longer lifespan than mechanical components. Moreover, the most expensive components in the car are drivetrain-related, which have the unlimited mile 8-yr warranty. Big question mark is: what is considered a drivetrain component? I would assume battery pack, inverter, reduction gearing, and motor. But does it include the charger?
My main concern is something like the folding mirrors failing. I suspect an out-of-warranty failure of something like that would get you pretty close to the $2400 warranty cost. Also, with Tesla labor at $175/hr and parts expensive, it's not going to take much at all to get you to $2400. I suspect if I end up keeping mine past 5yr/50k I'll be getting the warranty.

The great drivetrain/battery(85kWh) warranties definitely mitigate the need, but I still think there's a lot of expensive stuff to go wrong, and so far a seemingly high rate of it actually going wrong.
 
Big question mark is: what is considered a drivetrain component? I would assume battery pack, inverter, reduction gearing, and motor. But does it include the charger?

The blog post (Infinite Mile Warranty | Blog | Tesla Motors) mentions the "drive unit" rather than "drivetrain". I assume the "drive unit" only includes the inverter, motor, gears, driveshafts, and anything else that gets swapped during a drive unit swap. Since it costs $3,600 to have a second charger added after purchase, I imagine having a failed charger replaced out of warranty would cost a similar amount. I have the air suspension so I'm planning to buy the extended warranty since I've heard that air suspensions in other cars tend to need lots of expensive repairs. If I didn't have the air suspension it would be a much tougher call.
 
The blog post (Infinite Mile Warranty | Blog | Tesla Motors) mentions the "drive unit" rather than "drivetrain". I assume the "drive unit" only includes the inverter, motor, gears, driveshafts, and anything else that gets swapped during a drive unit swap. Since it costs $3,600 to have a second charger added after purchase, I imagine having a failed charger replaced out of warranty would cost a similar amount. I have the air suspension so I'm planning to buy the extended warranty since I've heard that air suspensions in other cars tend to need lots of expensive repairs. If I didn't have the air suspension it would be a much tougher call.

Ahh good point. The battery is already covered under a separate warranty.

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My main concern is something like the folding mirrors failing. I suspect an out-of-warranty failure of something like that would get you pretty close to the $2400 warranty cost. Also, with Tesla labor at $175/hr and parts expensive, it's not going to take much at all to get you to $2400. I suspect if I end up keeping mine past 5yr/50k I'll be getting the warranty.

The great drivetrain/battery(85kWh) warranties definitely mitigate the need, but I still think there's a lot of expensive stuff to go wrong, and so far a seemingly high rate of it actually going wrong.

Very good point. There has been a *little* bit of improvement in the pricing...for example, the key fobs have gone down in price, as have the TPMS sensors. Tesla will probably have to make some significant reductions to their other charges to make skipping the warranty a good idea. However, with the cost now $4k that changes the value equation.
 
Don't forget there is a deductible for each item out of warranty.... that's a kicker that leans me towards not buying the extended warranty and the fact that it's $4k. I've purchased extended warranties for all my cars and they were around $2500 with $0 deductible and all worth it. At $4k + deductible it's expensive..... but I am worried about lots of other things going wrong considering I've been in service for 6 times already.....
 
Sad that this needed - too bad reliability is not up to the hype - I have had 2 master chargers need replacement in 6 months of ownership

The first few years of any major new technology like this is going to have its hiccups.

Two bits of good news though:

1. It's getting significantly better. My VIN1653 started out with lots of issues. Tesla implemented fixes and the car was pretty reliable from that point on. VIN 55228 is dramatically better than 1653 was. The good thing is, if reliability is not already as good as a typical ICE, I believe it will get there soon...and then soon surpass some of the best ICE reliability champs.

2. Whatever growing pain design issues there are, Tesla has been pretty good about fixing them.

There have been dramatically fewer reports of battery clunks, door handle failures, and the like compared to even 1 year ago. My gauge says there have been big improvements in reliability even in the last year.