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Who is upgrading to self driving?

Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by martinicus, Oct 23, 2016.

Tags:
?

Are you upgrading?

  1. Sticking with AP 1 featureset

    24.1%
  2. Upgrading to Enhanced AP

    29.3%
  3. Upgrading to EAP + Self Driving

    32.8%
  4. Haven't decided

    13.8%
  1. martinicus

    martinicus Member

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    For those with orders in the queue that have the chance to upgrade AP, I'm curious what the breakdown is.

    I'm one of them, and I'm definitely upgrading to EAP, not sure about self driving. The main pro would be that it seems like they could raise the price to unlock above 4K in the future, so 3K might be a bargain. It's unclear how unlocking the 8 cameras will improve EAP in the near term, if it will at all. My state also has no sales tax on EVs, so upgrades before purchase are preferable. The main con seems to be the risk that self driving will never be released due to regulatory obstacles. Thoughts?
     
  2. idealsol

    idealsol Member

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    Just EAP for me on a car set for December delivery

    I'm taking a wait and see on full autonomous

    For me, the additional 3k now just doesn't make sense, despite the higher cost for a later upgrade
     
    • Like x 1
  3. Mknac

    Mknac Member

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    Not me. I love my MS as is. Also I like driving. The future may be self-driving but kind of sad that people won't know the joy of being in a grove with your car. But on the other hand perhaps less stuck in traffic frustration.
     
    • Like x 2
  4. MorrisonHiker

    MorrisonHiker S 90D 2017.42

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    I upgraded to Enhanced Autopilot yesterday and will add Full self-driving in 2017 or 2018.
     
  5. Dstrohl

    Dstrohl Member

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    As a suggestion (if you can) you might consider adding another option on the poll to match your own state <grin>... something like, "Upgrading to EAP, undecided about self driving"

    I am basically in the same place you are. I personally have serious doubts that they will be able to have anywhere the level of self driving that has been proposed within even the next several years... Not that I think the technical issues will stop it, I am sure those are all solvable, its the regulatory issues that I think will get in the way (just like marinicus).

    While I would love to see a car that I can simply sit in and say "take me to work", I don't expect this car (and that option) to get there. but, having said that, I think that they will HAVE to release some stuff for it or have to consider refunding the money paid be whomever does pay for it. I think they can get away with saying "well, the car can do it, but legally you can't sit in the back seat and ignore it". but I don't think they will be able to get away with "well, you paid for an option, but you get nothing for it". if nothing else, I suspect that they would never be able to actually recognize that revenue, (which makes accountants really grumpy).

    So, assuming I can get 10% return on investing the 3k, it's about 3 years to recover the 1k extra that it will cost after the fact to upgrade. and that's assuming they don't raise the price between now and then (something that they seem to do pretty frequently). Which means, the question is, do I expect that there will be enough features released to owners of that SKU to be worth 3k in the next two(ish) years. if not, I am better off (financially) waiting, investing the money, and paying for it later.

    I don't know the answer to that question though.

    I guess I am going to be in the "kind of sad" category... I don't really love driving that much. (to be fair, I've never regularly driven a car that I could say really fed a love of driving though) And the vast majority of my driving is in close to bumper to bumper congested traffic, which drives me up a wall. I would happily pay much more than the 3 (or 4k) to not have to deal with the traffic.
     
  6. ⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️

    ⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️ Fritterer and waster of hours in an off hand wayer

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    I don't think Tesla raises prices on people that already bought their car. That would be lying. They said it would be $1,000 more later. Did they say anything about the possibility of it being more if they changed their minds?
     
  7. Dstrohl

    Dstrohl Member

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    They didn't say anything about it going up, but neither did they say it would not go up. The price on the page is what it costs today to upgrade after delivery. I cant speak towards Tesla not raising the prices for upgrading after purchase. but there is nothing that says they cant. the only official agreement that I have with Tesla is the Purchase agreement and terms and conditions. Neither of those mention later upgrades at all. Simply having a price on a web page does not keep them from being able to change that price later.

    I would love to see them not changing the price. and I don't have enough experience with this to know what they have done in the past. A good way of testing this though would be for someone who has a newer car without the high amperage charger update to see what it would cost to update to it. it was 1,500 when I placed my order, it is now 1,900 (after the fact upgrade for new orders). If someone who is already in the system can check or ask to see if the cost has increased... that could help answer the question.
     
    • Like x 1
  8. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Supporting Member

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    Yes they do raise prices later. Anyone who hadn't upgraded to Autopilot before they raised the price from $2500 to $3000 had to pay the higher fee even if they bought the car when the fee was $2500, so it ended up being $1000 more for them (with the $500 change fee).

    Also, the extended warranty almost doubled in price at one point, but they ended up giving folks a grace period to get in on the old price in that case. No garuntees they do it again though.


    Safest bet is to buy it with the car. It seems like all price changes have been increases, I don't think we have seen a price decrease for software stuff yet.
     
  9. BerTX

    BerTX Active Member

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    If I want a car to drive itself, I'll take a (much cheaper) taxi. I enjoy driving, and rarely even use AP1, although I love TACC. The video of AP2 kinda frightens me. I have confidence they can program for any eventuality EXCEPT that the idiocy of other drivers knows no bounds. I don't see how autonomous driving can work until ALL cars on the road are autonomous, and human drivers are illegal.

    I still have a M3 reservation, and reserve the right to change my mind!
     
    • Like x 1
  10. ⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️

    ⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️ Fritterer and waster of hours in an off hand wayer

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    They should have waited till they received the car, then they wouldn't have had a change fee. I would think that those that bought the car when AP was $2,500 would only be paying $3,000 to activate it after they got the car. Your saying I'm wrong? I would like to see proof of this. Maybe I do want to pay for EAP now instead of later.
     
  11. RocketGoBoom

    RocketGoBoom Member

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    If self driving is never released, then Tesla will be forced to do a $3,000 refund for those people that paid for FSDC.
    We still have consumer protection laws in this country. Tesla cannot sell options and then not deliver them.

    Also, I am sure after FSDC is released, Tesla will be making an effort to contact everyone with AP 2 hardware and EAP software. They will be encouraging people to unlock the feature. They will offer a 1 more free trial with FSDC (just like they do with AP 1 unactivated owners).

    At that point in time, they will be willing to negotiate on the unlock. There won't be a $1,000 surcharge on the price. And if there is one, then I am confident it can be negotiated away and you can unlock for the normal price.

    Just my opinion. I think the EAP now is worthwhile because those features seem very achievable as improvements over AP 1 hardware.
    FSDC won't have surcharge in the future or it can be negotiated away after your free 1 month trial. You just have to play hard to get when it comes time.
     
  12. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Supporting Member

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    Here is at least one person who was affected:
    https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1763163/
     
  13. Dstrohl

    Dstrohl Member

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    You know, I seriously considered that, but the cost (for me) to get to or from work in a cab or a Uber is about $70. to do that for 20 days is $2800, for a year (assuming 48 weeks of working) is $33,600. Even the full 8,000 cost of all of the autopilot features+full self driving is covered pretty quickly with that as a gauge. (for me at least).

    In general, I agree, I think that the place that most autonomous driving accidents will happen is in the interaction of other stupid drivers... (which, as I understand it is what is already being shown in the Google research), however, I also think that for the most part, a good autonomous system will reduce these. It seems likely that a system is MORE likely to spot the driver who isn't slowing down for an intersection, or the driver who is starting to cross the the road than I am, and react better (in most cases). that isn't to say that there cant be places where I recognize that something is weird and I might catch something the system didn't, but I suspect that in most cases, the car will be reduce the chance of a crash, even with those stupid drivers.

    What I would love is to be able to have a system where it generally drives, but I can point out things to pay more attention to... sort of like seeing the truck ahead with the untied load and saying "<insert your cool car name>, lets not follow that truck too closely", or knowing that there is a blind intersection coming up that people sometimes miss, I might say "<insert your cool car name>, watch out for that intersection" and it might slow down a little and apply lower threshold for any movement from that location. (then remember it for later!)

    In the end, we will all really have to just wait and see. and reserve the right to change our minds. Tesla might not be able to make a smart enough system to handle all those other drivers and cases... someone in a test car could run a school bus off the road and kill 50 kindergartners and the government would go the other way and ban anything above L2 autonomous systems from any car, ever. or... it might work... Tesla might get it all right it will work perfectly in 100% of the cases. (I don't think either one will happen, but we all just have to wait and see).
     
  14. Xminus6

    Xminus6 Member

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    That's me too.
     
  15. B8BB8B

    B8BB8B Member

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    At the end of the day what's another $4200 when the car is over 200k..... go big or go home ;)
     
    • Like x 1
  16. martinicus

    martinicus Member

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    Great responses everyone. Yea I should add a few options to the poll but i dont think I can edit it (at least not from mobile).

    Yea it seems like at this point handing over $3000 for a bag of features at some indeterminate date in the future requires some truly optimistic thinking. I guess if you truly want to help with AP development you can front them the money, but we're already giving them quite a but of money as it is. I'm leaning towards sticking with EAP.
     
  17. theboom1

    theboom1 Member

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    A quote from an article talking about the recent call with Elon: "But, before Teslas can start driving autonomously, the company needs to collect a lot of data to prove to customers (and regulators) that the technology is safe and reliable. So, the car will run Autopilot in “shadow mode” in order for Tesla to gather statistical data to show false positives and false negatives of the software. In shadow mode, the car isn’t taking any action, but it registers when it would have taken action."

    So Elon has said that the computer can run in the background and can determine when it could intervene if needed to avoid a crash. How about in the future when people like us (I love driving to like you) want to drive, just make it so the computer does intervene? Then we can still have the benefits like full self driving that the people that don't like to dive want and the automatic uber, but we can still drive and be just as safe. Maybe during rush hour in cities make it so you have to be in autonomous mode. Man I have seen LA traffic and my god, if I had to deal with that every day I would lose it.
     
  18. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    EAP to me seems like a worthy upgrade since you can use it pretty soon?

    I think most everyone would pay for full autonomy. But its pay now or pay later.

    I wonder if Tesla might charge 10k for full autonomy 12 or 16 months from now.

    100% return on your money would make the plunge worth it now. Based on currently known information, FA is not worth it.
     
  19. woof

    woof Model X 75D Blue, 6 seats

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    Delivery in December and a 3 year lease...no way I'd pre-purchase self-driving now. If it is actually shown to have any value within the next two years, I'd consider adding it on then.
     
  20. BerTX

    BerTX Active Member

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    I just have less faith in people than Elon does, I guess. I can forsee a fun game for teenagers, playng chicken with driverless Teslas they see approaching from the opposite direction, seeing how far they can get them to jump into the ditch to avoid a collision, or herding the Tesla around in a parking lot like a game of Pacman.

    I don't think autonomous driving will work until cars are networked and communicate with each other, knowing what each vehicle will do because they are in control of the whole mess. And that certainly won't happen in my lifetime. And that's fine with me.
     

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