roblab
Active Member
Sorry. CO2 is not a fuel. And batteries may be dirty, but to what are you comparing them? The better way is found by taking many paths.
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Why do people really want Tesla to fail?
- Thread starter RedOctober
- Start date
Sorry. CO2 is not a fuel. And batteries may be dirty, but to what are you comparing them? The better way is found by taking many paths.
Barklikeadog
Active Member
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
And from my POV the only reason that anyone wants fuel cell vehicles is that it can further the life of the fossil fuel industry by requiring utilization of natural gas. Hydrogen from electrolysis is too inefficient and wastes more energy than just storing it in batteries.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
I suspect that RobLAB knows more about the chemistry than you.
Trees do take in carbon dioxide, but not as an energy source. Sunlight is the energy source.
I find the entire "we hope Tesla fails" story in this country very interesting. As a super happy owner of my second Tesla, I too get tired of the naysayers.
I've been a long time advocate for EVs, having worked to market and the lease the GM EV1 here in San Diego in the 90's. I've also been a long time subscriber to the auto industry's main publication 'Automotive News' (AN). AN is suppose to be an advocate for the entire auto industry. What I have found most disturbing is even Keith Crane, the editor, continually seeks to highlight Tesla's challenges as an example of his belief that they will fail. AN almost celebrates any negative Tesla news within their automotive advocacy publication. It is shocking and disturbing. Last week's AN issue was so off putting that it lead me to write a letter to AN and ask if their entire editorial board is shorting Tesla stock!
The old car dogs (that I worked with for years) in this industry just don't want things to change, it's scary and they feel vulnerable that they will be left behind.
As an American Co. Tesla employs many hard working American's.
I hope that celebrating Tesla and Elon Musks' entrepreneurial spirt will so be the new normal in this country soon.
I see this is your first post and wish to hear from you some more in the future. Tesla has shaken the auto industry and they just don’t like some new guy coming in and upsetting an industry that has had it way for so many decades. Times are changing and the legacy auto manufacturers musk learn to adapt.
As a follow up and to give a bit more insight into the state of mind of today's legacy auto industry leaders ... Here is today's Editorial in Automotive News by Keith Crain:
"Have they gone crazy on EVs?"
Except in China, where government rules and objectives are easier to
implement and enforce, electric vehicles seem to be headed for a
disastrous conclusion.
Car companies continue to increase
their commitment to EVs at a very substantial investment. They seem to be rushing blindly to reach nonexistent customers.
The result is that dozens of electric models will be offered to an uninterested group of consumers who, unless fuel costs skyrocket, have little or no desire to buy them.
All this investment in electrification will be at the price of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles.
In fact, there is real danger that the global automotive landscape will be littered with unneeded and unwanted
EVs while the demand for conventional vehicles will be reduced because of a lack of capital investment.
A company that chooses not to build electric vehicles might well have a sales windfall without traditional competition.
It will be interesting — no, fascinating — to see how auto companies allocate their resources over the next decade or two.
Manufacturers planning electric vehicles seem to be committed to the
use of batteries rather than some other technology that might be more effective, such as fuel cells.
If you add the huge investment required for these same companies to develop and test autonomous vehicles at the same time, resources will become limited very quickly.
At each global auto show, such as the one last week in Beijing, manufacturers seem to roll out more and more EVs. Indeed, the Chinese will probably be in the best shape to supply EVs for their market.
But it will be fascinating to see if sales develop for these products in the coming months. It would appear to be a very dangerous game these companies are playing.
@Coolbreezesd I think Europe will be next after China, and the incumbent manufacturers can see this.
Yes car companies are investing in a lot of new models, but there has been a shift. If you told me 5 years ago things like the I-Pace, Kona or VW I.D. would be launched in Europe before the US (particularly CARB states), I'd not have believed you.
However the stars are starting to align here for broader adoption. More consumer acceptance, a credible strategy for 150kW+ charging network, a strengthened supply chain in the form of LG and Samsung's new battery plants, and a broad range of EV's from "budget friendly" brands like Kia through to high-end stuff like Porsche. I think Tesla will find it hard to maintain traction in Europe. (Particularly with a sedan, which to put this into some perspective VW sold 487k Golfs vs 7k Jettas in Europe during 2017.)
If VW make good on their promise of the I.D. being the same price as a similarly equipped VW Golf Diesel, then personally I think it will become the biggest volume European EV.
Yes car companies are investing in a lot of new models, but there has been a shift. If you told me 5 years ago things like the I-Pace, Kona or VW I.D. would be launched in Europe before the US (particularly CARB states), I'd not have believed you.
However the stars are starting to align here for broader adoption. More consumer acceptance, a credible strategy for 150kW+ charging network, a strengthened supply chain in the form of LG and Samsung's new battery plants, and a broad range of EV's from "budget friendly" brands like Kia through to high-end stuff like Porsche. I think Tesla will find it hard to maintain traction in Europe. (Particularly with a sedan, which to put this into some perspective VW sold 487k Golfs vs 7k Jettas in Europe during 2017.)
If VW make good on their promise of the I.D. being the same price as a similarly equipped VW Golf Diesel, then personally I think it will become the biggest volume European EV.
I did the math. Over and over again. Caveat: I tend to drive cars into the ground. My current Camry has 295,600 miles on it and my previous car, a Dodge Intrepid was retired at 230,000.
I could get something cheaper than the Model 3 I've been waiting 5 years for. I could have bought a Volt when it came out (in fact, that was my intention until I learned about Tesla while the Volt was being developed). But I saw the benefit of not hauling around an internal combustion engine when all I really needed was the electricity - and the range of the Model 3 hits the bullseye.
The Model 3 is more expensive up front (right now) compared to the alternatives. However, the laundry list of things I'll never have to pay for is considerable - and that means long term savings. This is all before we get to the "be nice to the planet" discussion.
One other thing. I've been in technology since the 1970s. I've had, and programmed, those old 8-bit personal computers. There was a price to pay for being an 'early adopter' - but being that early adopter meant you were keeping the market growing so that others could eventually join the party. In taking my step with the Model 3 (it should be delivered next week), I'm doing now for EVs what I did back then for PCs.
I could get something cheaper than the Model 3 I've been waiting 5 years for. I could have bought a Volt when it came out (in fact, that was my intention until I learned about Tesla while the Volt was being developed). But I saw the benefit of not hauling around an internal combustion engine when all I really needed was the electricity - and the range of the Model 3 hits the bullseye.
The Model 3 is more expensive up front (right now) compared to the alternatives. However, the laundry list of things I'll never have to pay for is considerable - and that means long term savings. This is all before we get to the "be nice to the planet" discussion.
One other thing. I've been in technology since the 1970s. I've had, and programmed, those old 8-bit personal computers. There was a price to pay for being an 'early adopter' - but being that early adopter meant you were keeping the market growing so that others could eventually join the party. In taking my step with the Model 3 (it should be delivered next week), I'm doing now for EVs what I did back then for PCs.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Why does no one ever express the same concern for sales of all the European sedans?
They are. Hence the shift to CUV's.
Putting it into perspective 29% of sales in BMW are now X variants, and the X2 is likely to continue that trend. This is on top of the Touring (wagon) and GT (fastback) versions. It's got to the point BMW are outsourcing 5 series to Magna.
Merc are doing similarly with introductions of GLA, GLC, GLE. Amongst new Mercs I see far more of these on the road than the sedan equivalents.
VW are also in on the game. For the first time the Passat is available in a fastback style (called the Arteon). On top of that we have a whole raft of new smaller VW CUVs coming on stream.
Ford never* sold the Fusion ( Mondeo )here in sedan, only ever fastback. (*slight disclaimer to that there is a VERY rare Vignale version which has been a sales flop) .
The only Honda variant without a hatchback available here is the NSX.
Audi are also beefing up their Q line up going all the way down now to the Q2.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
So basically sedan sales are fine and likely to continue as such for a few years at least, and Tesla will probably come out with the Y by next year. I don't see a problem for Tesla at all.
Barklikeadog
Active Member
Exactly, many paths. It is amusing to see the pro-EV people dig in their heels and call batteries the future with
as much stubbornness as those who say ICE will always be better.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It's taken a hundred years to come up with a viable alternative to ICE vehicles, which the EV clearly is, and you think pro-EV people are "digging their heels in"? You seem to be in some alternative reality where there is something even better than EV's just around the corner, even though you have no idea what it is. "Many paths" leads to wandering around aimlessly accomplishing nothing. Find the most viable technology and focus efforts on that. The billions wasted on hydrogen and bio fuels would have been better spent on EV's. Maybe someday super capacitors or something might be better than batteries to power them but they'll still be electric vehicles.
Nope sedan sales, for what they were worth, being a tiny fraction of the big sellers in Europe.These continue tanking. Look at ANY EU country's top selling car over the last decade... ALWAYS hatchbacks.
Today, inspired by this very discussion I took it upon myself to count the cars that went past as I sat and enjoyed a nice lunchtime meal .... Over the course of 100 cars, only 7 were sedans.
Of cars with 2018 number-plates (UK cars licence plates are age related), all were CUV's.
Now my "experiment" is a small sample size, but the ACEA (European equivalent of SAE) is reporting very similar trends.
Private buyers are going for hatchback and CUV's. Fleet is hanging on with sedans (generally via super aggressive finance deals,) , but ultimately "tourings" (wagons) are becoming more the norm for the fleet market in the 3 & 5 series options.
Will the Model Y be in Europe within a year? LOL, the Model 3 hasn't even arrived, and there isn't even a public sketch of the Y.
The European manufacturers will, IMHO, cream Tesla on their home turf. Simply because they know their home game.
Now the US market... I actually think Tesla will hit a home run with the Model 3.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Never said it would be in Europe within a year, I said Tesla will come out with it within a year. I expect it to hit Europe in 2020-2021, and in the mean time I expect plenty of demand for the Model 3 there.
CUVs and hatchbacks usually have worse aerodynamics than a slippery sedan such as the Model 3 so those vehicles will likely have less range and/or cost more for similar range. Plus the well established and growing supercharger network enabling actual long range driving will help drive demand for the 3. It's going to take a while for another high speed charging network to be deployed in similar volume to where Tesla is today, and that's a moving target. Tesla's will also likely be able to use other open standards which are being deployed.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I looked at various factors like energy efficiency and infrastructure. No solution is perfect, but I reached the conclusion that EVs are more viable in the long run than either gasoline or fuel cell cars.
Battery recycling is rapidly improving. A new technique means that cathode material no longer has to be broken down. It can be revived to new condition at half the energy cost: A New Way to Recycle Batteries Uses Half the Energy
I believe that a combination of advances in DC fast charging and self driving car share will eventually make EVs viable for urban use.
Barklikeadog
Active Member
What is considered the long run? I threw out the likelihood that a major city would take 20 years to install hundreds of thousands of chargers to meet needs.
Fuel cells or other means of powering a car will change quite a bit in 20 years. If EV truly is a 100 year auto plan, then by all means throw billions at it.
At least find a cleaner way to build batteries, because it is a very dirty and overlooked activity. But out of sight, out of mind. Poisoning waterways or child labor
on another continent just doesn't get the headlines that an oil spill does.
