Why FSD will never fully work on current cars

[Mod3forMe]

Maybe someone with more knowledge in the area can tell me about this, but this morning I had dew on my car and this made AP unable to work. Of course, frost, snow, sleet and at time heavy rain do the same. I even once got splashed by a passing truck that blinded a camera turning AP off.

In some instances the driver can can clean the caneras, but in sleet this would not work and of course if driver intervention is needed the idea that these cars could drive ‘ride share’ with no one in them is out of the question.

 

[adaptabl]

There are many problems still to be addressed.

 

[Runt8]

Level 4 autonomy would allow for driver control in adverse weather conditions.

 

[Mod3forMe]

Level 4 autonomy would allow for driver control in adverse weather conditions.

The issue is the band of ‘adverse conditions’ is pretty wide in most of North America. I am not taking about a blizzard I am taking about some morning dew.


I also not sure how a driver takes over when you car is out driving ride share well you are at work as Elon promised.

Some other self driving solutions seem to be taking weather much more into account then Tesla’s solution

 

[Mod3forMe]

There are many problems still to be addressed.

yes, I just see hardware being the limitation at some point.

 

[azred]

Don’t know how anyone can state FSD as defined by Tesla will never fully work when no one can even define what FSD by Tesla means. The definition shifts and probably appropriately so. Whatever FSD by Tesla is, it is still in its infancy.

My major concern is that current AP2/2.5 cars will face the same fate as AP1 cars, i.e., a mostly dead end of development sooner than later as Tesla focuses on newer cars. It has been nearly 30 months since FSD for 2.0 was first sold as vaporware. For those of us planning to keep our late 2016 Teslas, can we really believe we won’t be soon forgotten and “self-driving” In whatever form will be much different — and much better — for new cars only?

 

[Enginerd]

If only there was some type of device to wipe moisture off glass... now that would really be something!

 

[buckerine]

I love Tesla cars and have two. But, the company clearly engages in tactics that maybe other more established companies wouldn't. I ALWAYS saw the FSD option as vaporware and can't actually believe anyone would buy it. The technology isn't the issue, it's the regulation. There is no way we'll get Level 5 autonomy in the next 5 years. I just don't see it happening.

Now, Level 4 in major metropolitan areas of developed countries could very well happen, but I give that at least 4-5 years as well.

 

[Mod3forMe]

Don’t know how anyone can state FSD as defined by Tesla will never fully work when no one can even define what FSD by Tesla means. The definition shifts and probably appropriately so. Whatever FSD by Tesla is, it is still in its infancy.

My major concern is that current AP2/2.5 cars will face the same fate as AP1 cars, i.e., a mostly dead end of development sooner than later as Tesla focuses on newer cars. It has been nearly 30 months since FSD for 2.0 was first sold as vaporware. For those of us planning to keep our late 2016 Teslas, can we really believe we won’t be soon forgotten and “self-driving” In whatever form will be much different — and much better — for new cars only?

For sure Tesla keep lowering the bar for what FSD means to them. Elon tends to over promise what it is ad will be.

If only there was some type of device to wipe moisture off glass... now that would really be something!

At this stage, as far as I can tell, that would take a major hardware upgrade as putting a wiper on every camera lens pod would not be an easy retrofit.

 

[CommandoFL]

How bout wiping down your cameras before you begin to drive. Seems simple enough

 

[Daniel in SD]

The technology isn't the issue, it's the regulation.

Self driving cars are legal in California and many other states. When Elon Musk is talking about "regulators", I think he's talking about the legality of customers testing a Level 3-5 system, which probably is illegal in CA and many other states.

 

[ngogas]

Full self driving won’t happen for awhile. There needs to be some infrastructure in place. 5years is pretty skeptical.

 

[Knightshade]

Don’t know how anyone can state FSD as defined by Tesla will never fully work when no one can even define what FSD by Tesla means. The definition shifts and probably appropriately so. Whatever FSD by Tesla is, it is still in its infancy.

My major concern is that current AP2/2.5 cars will face the same fate as AP1 cars, i.e., a mostly dead end of development sooner than later as Tesla focuses on newer cars. It has been nearly 30 months since FSD for 2.0 was first sold as vaporware. For those of us planning to keep our late 2016 Teslas, can we really believe we won’t be soon forgotten and “self-driving” In whatever form will be much different — and much better — for new cars only?

Anybody with 2.x who bought FSD gets the HW3 upgrade for free, so that's a non-issue.

 

[Drax]

@CommandoFL Unfortunately that doesn't always solve the problem. Every rear view camera I've ever used is always a mess during rain, and if I can't see through those conditions, I can't trust that the car will do so reliably in those conditions either. Maybe some RainX is all that's needed..

Since AP2 was announced, I was always surprised they didn't eliminate most of the ultrasonic sensors in favor for adding 4 more long range radars to each corner. Redundancy is hugely important for the future of autonomy, and I just don't see L5 autonomy as a realistic option for Tesla's current hardware suite. I can absolutely see L4 being fully attainable in less than 4 years, but definitely not L5. Unfortunately Tesla's issue is that they talked about the Tesla Network for ride-sharing and people thought these cars would be their own personal Uber but with less conversation, when it's really not the case.

I bought my car with FSD, and while I'll be thrilled if I can take a nap while in the drivers seat on an interstate and not die, I'll still be thrilled if it only allows me to casually watch a movie in reasonable conditions.

EDIT: For those worried about AP2 becoming a dinosaur because of what happened with AP1, remember Tesla hadn't developed AP1 - that was from Mobile Eye. AP2+ are designed internally, so there will be support moving forward for years to come. The fully AP suite may never fully materialize, but they will support, update, and improve for at least a few years.

 

[Mod3forMe]

How bout wiping down your cameras before you begin to drive. Seems simple enough

That would work in some cases - if you were with your car. Elon has been promising that FSD will allow you car to go off and do other things with out you and then come pick you up. If you are not with your car you not going to be able to wipe down the cameras.

The focus of my comment is Elon's promise that the Model 3 has all the hardware to drive around without you in it. I just can't see it ever happening with the current hardware. If the car get splashed the wrong way on the highway it will be blind an unable to safely get to the shoulder.

 

[Mod3forMe]

Anybody with 2.x who bought FSD gets the HW3 upgrade for free, so that's a non-issue.

That is a bit short term thinking. True FSD (level 4 or 5) likely won't be around for 5 or more years and we may be at HW5+ by that time. I predict that Tesla will add a package above FSD in the future as new hardware will be needed.

 

[Daniel in SD]

That would work in some cases - if you were with your car. Elon has been promising that FSD will allow you car to go off and do other things with out you and then come pick you up. If you are not with your car you not going to be able to wipe down the cameras.

The focus of my comment is Elon's promise that the Model 3 has all the hardware to drive around without you in it. I just can't see it ever happening with the current hardware. If the car get splashed the wrong way on the highway it will be blind an unable to safely get to the shoulder.

If some liquid that could not be wiped off by the wipers covers the entire windshield I would expect a self driving car to do a better job pulling over than a human driver. A self driving car would have perfect memory of the road layout before the incident.

 

[diplomat33]

That a bit short term thinking. True FSD (level 4 or 5) likely won't be around for 5 or more years and weight be at HW5+ by that time. I predict that Tesla will add a package above FSD in the future as new hardware will be needed.

No, I don't think that Tesla will add a package above FSD. What would they even call it, "FFSD, Full Full Self-Driving"? The fact is that the name "Full Self-Driving" already implies the highest level of self-driving. It would be silly to add a package above it. Instead, Tesla can just keep adding new features to the existing FSD package. So if Tesla does reach L4/5 autonomy, they can just add that to the existing FSD package and probably raise the price too. Heck, it's probably why they call it FSD in the first place so that it can encompass everything they do in self-driving from here on out. FSD is an umbrella term that Tesla can use for all future "self-driving" features from basic self-driving all the way to L4/5 autonomy.

 

[Knightshade]

That is a bit short term thinking. True FSD (level 4 or 5) likely won't be around for 5 or more years and we may be at HW5+ by that time.

tesla has been saying, consistently, since at least the 2->2.5 transition, that if any HW they add later turns out "needed" for FSD that anybody who previously bought FSD gets it free.

So as I said- non-issue.

 

[Mod3forMe]

If some liquid that could not be wiped off by the wipers covers the entire windshield I would expect a self driving car to do a better job pulling over than a human driver. A self driving car would have perfect memory of the road layout before the incident.

I stand to be corrected, but the camera's are not just behind the windshield though. If one of you side cameras get dirty AP will turn off as you can't make lane changes. This is the issue I tend to have - windshield is clean and clear but side camera gets obscured.