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Why isn't Tesla designing a van for Europe? Seems to be a no brainer.
- Thread starter JKolodziejski
- Start date
As previously mentioned, individuals are paying for Luxury and Technology when buying a Tesla. Fleet companies might pay for Technology but not for Luxury. The price of a Commercial van would have too be pretty low in order to catch the attention or Large Customers. About the only luxury that a Fleet Manager has for their vans are A/C, Heater and Radio (maybe).
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
Except that in EU the price differential of ICE fuel and Electricity is significant: compared to 50 MPG ICE a BEV would save about $100 a month for each 10,000 miles p.a. driven, so for a vehicle doing 100 miles a day, for 220 working days a year, saves $200 a month available for Finance, and together with longer/cheaper service interval that should sort out the numbers for the Bean Counters.
Not sure that I would describe the M3 as Luxury - albeit that it isn't wood benches either! ... I don't see that a van, e.g. based on an M3, has to have leather seats ...
... I don't know if modern vans have tracking as standard these days? but if not then fleets being able to see where all vans are, without cost of extra tech, and so on would all help. Kudos for being ECO will come into play (probably more so in EU than USA?), and in EU grants etc. are available plus Diesel is being banned from city centres "real soon now". Copenhagen by the end of 2018 ... so fleets have to find an alternative anyway.
But the vans don't exist yet, and won't in appreciable numbers for some years yet, and I can't see that it is a worthwhile project for Tesla in the short term - other, more profitable, closer to home, low-hanging-fruit ripe for the picking before then ... so personally I think its moot in the meantime.
EDIT: Actually the saving would be around GBP 100, which is more than $100 depending on how the exchange rate is reacting to Brexit!!
... in addition to what @WannabeOwner said, none of this would be defined as anything close to "luxury" in my book.
But I do agree with you that a van based on Model X could be a bit on the expensive side, but remember that by removing all the seats and upholstery in the rear Tesla may be able to drop the price a bit. And they may even find some standard "luxury" items to remove from the base Model X for this configuration to reduce the price even more. But Model Y would be more in the right price point for a Fleet Manager.
But on the other hand, remember that here in Europe - at least in my part of Europe - we do pay more attention on the work conditions for the employees, so most employers would be willing to pay more to give their employees a better working environment - more "luxury" - then it looks like an US employer would.
NeverFollow
Active Member
Elon explained in the past that he doesn't like square shape and sliding doors,
so he decided to have falcons doors, to allow accessing the third row.
However the falcons doors have several drawbacks.
Beside the added complexity, and weight,
the first major drawback is that you cannot put anything on the roof.
Another drawback is that with low ceiling and narrow space on the side,
something typical in any home garage or public parking,
you cannot really open the doors and access the back seat.
The real solution would have been then not to have a falcon door with two hinges, but three hinges.
See the video at (3:50) Optimus Prime's garage is done!
I really think that the Model X platform could be used for more utilitarian purpose.
May be Tesla should create another commercial vehicles branch, to sale pickup trucks, vans, and so on...
And keep the Tesla DNA shape and style for non commercial vehicles like the Model S, X, 3, and Y.
Not sure where you got the idea I was talking about the falcon doors.
@WannabeOwner
Is there anything else to the non-luxury argument that isn't already applicable to the Semi?
Regarding delivery vans, Deutsche Post/DHL tried to make a deal to build "last mile" delivery electrics with auto people, including VW.
They were told, "now way. cost billions. bye"
So they did their own.
And succeeded.
Some bits:
"We do not produce a single component ourselves... Everything comes from a supplier
Body and drive train components are designed for easy interchangeability...
slashes maintenance costs by 50% and repair costs by up to 80%."
Deutsche Post claims it breaks even on the venture after just 2,500 units.
Deutsche Post successor to German mail authority Deutsche Bundespost,
privatized 1995 fully independent in 2000.
DHL Express wholly owned subsidiary.
Timeline:
German company Streetscooter, created in 2010 in collaboration with Technical High School RWTH from Aachen (Aquisgrán)
2011 began working w StreetScooter.
2012 prototype
2013 20 vehicles went into use
end 2014 plans to make 6,000 - 10,000 annually.
December 2014 Deutsche Post DHL Group purchased StreetScooter GmbH
April 2016 announced StreetScooter GmbH to manufacture 10,000 vehicles in 2017
received queries by third parties. willing to sell vehicles as soon as it covers its own demand.
Ford won contract to build 2,500 of bigger version
Volkswagen Caddy models to be replaced VW Chief Executive Matthias Mueller found that "annoying". October 2016, " ask myself why Deutsche Post did not talk to our VW Commercial vehicles division about doing something similar. Let's see if we can still get a foot in the door there."
October 4, 2017 Building 2nd StreetScooter Electric Van Factory, Doubling Volume. Production to begin Q2 2018
September 29th, 2017 Is Ford Going To Mass Produce DHL’s Electric Van?
November 30, 2017 DHL Group Meets Target for Operating 5,000 Street Scooter in 2017
Nice looking truck:
https://www.streetscooter.eu/produkte/work
recent story:
100 Weeks From Now, Volkswagen Will Start I.D. Production,
They were told, "now way. cost billions. bye"
So they did their own.
And succeeded.
Some bits:
"We do not produce a single component ourselves... Everything comes from a supplier
Body and drive train components are designed for easy interchangeability...
slashes maintenance costs by 50% and repair costs by up to 80%."
Deutsche Post claims it breaks even on the venture after just 2,500 units.
Deutsche Post successor to German mail authority Deutsche Bundespost,
privatized 1995 fully independent in 2000.
DHL Express wholly owned subsidiary.
Timeline:
German company Streetscooter, created in 2010 in collaboration with Technical High School RWTH from Aachen (Aquisgrán)
2011 began working w StreetScooter.
2012 prototype
2013 20 vehicles went into use
end 2014 plans to make 6,000 - 10,000 annually.
December 2014 Deutsche Post DHL Group purchased StreetScooter GmbH
April 2016 announced StreetScooter GmbH to manufacture 10,000 vehicles in 2017
received queries by third parties. willing to sell vehicles as soon as it covers its own demand.
Ford won contract to build 2,500 of bigger version
Volkswagen Caddy models to be replaced VW Chief Executive Matthias Mueller found that "annoying". October 2016, " ask myself why Deutsche Post did not talk to our VW Commercial vehicles division about doing something similar. Let's see if we can still get a foot in the door there."
October 4, 2017 Building 2nd StreetScooter Electric Van Factory, Doubling Volume. Production to begin Q2 2018
September 29th, 2017 Is Ford Going To Mass Produce DHL’s Electric Van?
November 30, 2017 DHL Group Meets Target for Operating 5,000 Street Scooter in 2017
Nice looking truck:
https://www.streetscooter.eu/produkte/work
recent story:
100 Weeks From Now, Volkswagen Will Start I.D. Production,
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
Indeed. The video of Semi showed fleet-management features built-in as standard, and a comparison ICE cab stuffed with add-on gear; that tech could trickle-down to vans.
But a Semi is $180K, so easy to include some niceties without losing market share based on price. For a Postman's van I think that price will be a bigger criteria.
Small-ish Ford van 15K, larger Transit-style 25-30K ... that's a lot cheaper than the 30K entry level M3, not sure M3 could be made into a van for 15-20K by just removing the luxuries. If BEV fuel is 0.10-.015 cheaper per mile then 5K extra on price needs 30K-50K miles for payback ... Googling was a bit fruitless, but looks like Urban / Rural delivery driver routes average 100 / 150 miles a day. If the vehicle ran 5 days a week 52 weeks a year that's 26K / 39K miles p.a. ... so for payback the rural routes look better than the urban ones, but its still a couple of years for each 5K extra on price.
Whilst in EU the Fuel price makes BEV cost effective, two BEV brands side by side may well be chosen on price / lifetime-cost. Thus my view is that a Van needs to start with the cheapest skateboard, and I am doubting that MX is right for that reason, so if based on M3 or MY then we are a some way from having it on the drawing-board ... let alone driving around on the streets ...
.. doesn't need to be autonomous though - Plumber's van arriving without the plumber is not much good to me!, and I can't visualise a self-delivery Post van either ...
Good explanation with luxuries not scaling down as well.
Interesting point about the inherent lack of automation - Vans are nearly always involved with single or very few people carrying out their duties per van, as opposed to a truck depot where a small team may deal with a large fleet of automated trucks.
Idea of an automated postman steeping out of it gives me a good laugh.
Not automation would be made reliable enough to function 100% - I suspect the remaining 0.001% of driving is going to be a bigger roadblock (pun genuinely unintended there) than many would like to think. I honestly believe there is going to have to be an "air traffic control tower" of sorts when automated systems are getting confused.
Interesting point about the inherent lack of automation - Vans are nearly always involved with single or very few people carrying out their duties per van, as opposed to a truck depot where a small team may deal with a large fleet of automated trucks.
Idea of an automated postman steeping out of it gives me a good laugh.
Not automation would be made reliable enough to function 100% - I suspect the remaining 0.001% of driving is going to be a bigger roadblock (pun genuinely unintended there) than many would like to think. I honestly believe there is going to have to be an "air traffic control tower" of sorts when automated systems are getting confused.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
I saw an article recently about the number of accidents with autonomous cars being tested. Not the car's fault, well ... "supposedly", but the car brakes for something that "Might happen" - child playing with a ball beside the road, kid looking at their phone and approach a crossing point ... and the car behind ran into it because that driver was not expecting ANYONE to brake in that situation ...
Remember that we are now talking about van's for the European marked. Here the price-gap between ICE fuel and electricity is somewhat bigger then in the US, and we are facing ban's on diesel cars in some cities in the near future. So a higher price for an BEV van is easier to accept here then in the US.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
Will an electric van really be more expensive then it's ICE counterpart in 2-3 years ? Semi -> $75/kWh. And shorter routes means smaller battery packs.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
I think the price has got to come down a lot (for fleet managers to make the shift, on price alone) not sure battery fall over next couple of years will be enough? although that time will come of course ... but ... Tesla will be able to sell all it can make, over the next 5 years say, and by then seems likely that those wanting a new ICE will be few - particularly if the battery / electricity-vs-ICE-fuel economics stack up. So what then? Demand will FAR outstrip supply (well, world supply of batteries, if not of bodywork / production assembly-line capacity). So I suppose that: price will remain high, profits remains high, and only those that want to will buy - either for prestige etc. or high mileage van drivers with bigger payback on cheaper electricity.
At some point government will have to move ICE fuel-tax to a road-tax, and then the benefit of cheaper electricity goes away ...
... I mean: surely government will be able to see that BEV will reduce pollution [i.e. saving on cleanup and health care costs], balance of payments to Middle East will decline along with the cost of going to war etc ... and of course Government will see that they don't need those extra Tax $s ... eh?
Yes, good point. I was surprised [until I googled it] that EU Urban delivery vehicles only do 50-80 miles a day - not much battery needed for that ... and rural delivery driver only does 100-150, rarely 200 miles a day.
Found this EU-country electricity price comparison dated March 2017
/selectra.co.uk/guides/electricity-prices-europe
although 16.84p for UK seems wildly pessimistic. I pay 8p-ish for night 14p-ish for day (a bit higher than normal because I have Day/Night meter). A better comparison, for BEV drivers, would be the cheapest price that can easily be obtained in each country (a BEV driver has far more incentive to shop around than someone who is only going to save a few Pounds by switching)
Norway amongst the cheapest for Electricity, and the highest for Petrol EU 1.57 (only Netherlands and Iceland higher). main EU states 1.40-1.45, sadly UK cheaper at 1.33
I took the ICE Fuel price from autotraveler.ru/en/spravka/fuel-price-in-europe.html and did 3 comparisons showing percentage fuel-cost saving for BEV vs. ICE:
30 MPG Petrol assuming BEV is 300 wH/mi
50 MPG Petrol assuming BEV is 250 wH/mi
Diesel assuming 50 MPG and BEV is 250 wH/mi
Denmark and Germany look particularly bad for Diesel - their governments need to step up to the mark!. Interesting that Denmark is banning Diesel in Copenhagen at the end of next year, but has a vicious luxury tax which means that Tesla not viable there ... perhaps other EVs do sell there though?
Electricity prices may be unrealistic, but hopefully comparable country-to-country, if not for the actual savings ICE-vs-BEV
Yes I know a lot of people have calculated this, but that is based on a 1Mwh battery pack in the Semi. More realistic is that it is "only" about 800kWh and that will give a cell-price of around $100/kWh.
No, it will not "go away", but be lessened.
Here in Norway there is an Parliament decision that some fees/taxes for zero-emission vehicle should not be more then half the same fees for ICE vehicle. Among those are toll-road and ferry fees. And this principle could easily extend to other fees/taxes. Yes, there will be more taxes on zero-emission vehicle then it is today, but to raise/start a tax on zero-emission vehicles, you need to raise a tax on ICE by even more so the incentive to chose a zero-emission vehicle is still in effect.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
... but when ICE cars fall to negligible number (yeah, 20 years? maybe more than that even) then the same total tax has to be raised, as before, to repair roads etc. So I am assuming some continuous increase for BEV until that time; in UK that tax is currently on ICE Fuel (very few toll roads here), so presume that will change to become a road-usage tax in future (easy to tax ICE Fuel at the pump, impossible to do that for BEV electricity). Agree that tax will be a lower rate for BEV than ICE initially, and then perhaps a penalty rate for ICE later on ... but at some point it will have to collect the same amount of money for road repair, and our current percentage of tax in ICE Fuel is very significant ... so that significant portion will shift to be raised from BEVs I think?
As the ICE tax increases the who will suffer the most are, of course, the least well-off in society ...
As the ICE tax increases the who will suffer the most are, of course, the least well-off in society ...
You are right in that most of the taxes that ICE cars now pays will need to be payed by BEV cars in the future (but not all). But as I pointed out in my post: to continue to incentive zero-emission the prescription is to raise the taxes on ICE care at lest as much - or even more - then it is raised on the BEV's. That will avoid that "the benefit of cheaper electricity goes away" as you wrote.
Yes, as it always is... It is unfortunate, but the politic to replace the ICE transport with zero-emission transport has nothing to do with politics for distribution of wealth. If the later is desirable it will need implementations of other tools.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
But politicians say one thing and then do as they please ...
We have an ICE-Fuel tax (formerly Fuel Price Escalator, latterly renamed to Fuel Duty Stabiliser) in the UK that is supposed to rise by X% above inflation each year, in order to discourage use of ICE-Fuel and also provide funds for ECO sponsorship - i.e. disincentivize polluters.
Every year in the Budget the Chancellor decides "not to do it this year" ...
The only cure for such politicians is to trow them out...
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