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Why Tesla Will Fail

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Much too soon for Tesla to go into "mature" mode, they still need to keep pushing cutting edge innovation. Obviously Elon is the person to keep pushing the boundaries. The fact that you think by next year "there will be competition" tells me you don't understand the disruption which is taking place. Tesla is the competition to the ICE industry.
 
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I completely buy it. Everything I have read or seen supports the idea that Musk is a great "idea" guy and brings in great people to get the job done, but himself is not really CEO material in terms of running a stable company the like of which is required to build autos.

To date Tesla has been a start up, all the way through the roadster, model S, model X and now the model 3. But it is at the point where this won't cut it anymore. Now they need to be in mature, productive, efficient, competitive company mode so they can produce the great cars that have been designed and make enough money even when the competition starts making cars that can actually compare to them. I don't know if they are going to survive that transition.

In spite of the fact that the model Y is a great car, it wasn't enough different from the model 3 to create a stir... heck it barely made a ripple. Once it is in production, it will sell well, but it needs to be cost competitive with the field because, by 2020, there will be competition. I don't know if Musk is the right guy to lead the company through this transition. That is the real question, the man, not the cars.
Just look how Audi e-tron $75,000 compares to Model X $90,000 - Will be interesting to see how many spend extra $15,000 for Tesla.

Comments about Model Y BEFORE it even goes on sale - dream on.
 
This is why Tesla will fail -- not this year, not next year, but in a few years. It's just one story, but unfortunately it's representative.

Mid-december, the latch fails shut on my rear right door. I call up the service center I've been using to tell them that the latch is stuck shut (can't be opened from the inside or outside). They tell me that top management at Tesla (aka idiots) have told them they can't service my area any more and that I have to be directed to the "New York Mobile Service Team".

Now, there's no upstate NY service center. This is because Tesla top management (aka idiots) have *chosen* not to build one. It is legal for them to build one -- there is a limit on the number of stores, but no limit on the number of service centers. They are lying about this to their technicians, incidentally.

So, the service center I've been using refuses to make an appointment and says the NY mobile service team will call me. They refuse to give me the phone number for the NY mobile service team. They say they'll report my problem and order the part to be delivered to the NY mobile service team. I emphasize that it's the *latch*.

The NY mobile service team doesn't call me back after several weeks. I call the service center again and yell at them. This time I manage to get a phone number for the NY mobile service team. I call them. They say "our computer system says we tried to call you". They never tried to call me -- their computer system is lying. They say the parts came in a week ago (but they never bothered to call me....) I tell them *again* (since it's different people) that the problem is that the *latch* is stuck and ask them to make sure they have ordered the parts for the latch. "Omar" assures me that they have the parts for the latch. At this point, about four weeks after I first called, I am finally able to make an appointment. There is then a further delay because my schedule doesn't allow for an appointment in the next week (but would have in the earlier weeks which Tesla wasted).

Come today, the service tech shows up. He doesn't have the parts for the latch, because nobody ever wrote down that they were supposed to get the parts for the latch. Complete waste of time. I yell at the NY mobile service team guy (Omar), who lied to me, who now claims that the order regarding the stuck latch was never entered in his computer. I ask and he won't give me his manager's number. Or the number of the idiot in top management who ordered that we get all our mobile service through this idiot division. He says he'll talk to his manager -- we'll see.

This is par for the course with Tesla service. I have been dealing with this crap for five years, and it gets worse and worse every time. Meanwhile, the software team breaks basic functionality in updates (such as USB music playback).

This is going to kill the company. Not now, but as soon as there are other decent electric cars on the market -- ones where you can go to *independent service shops*.

They've had five years to fix this sort of crap and they've only made it worse. My advice to investors at this point is to hold on now, but dump the stock before 2020 if they don't fix the chronic and ever-worsening service problems.

It's not the bottom-line technicians. They're all fine. It's top management failure. There's no internal communications: information does not get passed from one person to another, and any one person who screws up the information ruins everything. The only way to get good service is to talk directly to the service tech who is going to do the work on your car. The only way to get a software bug fixed is to find the programmer who is responsible for fixing it. And Tesla does their best to *prevent* you from talking to the people you need to talk to.
Aha. You're finally coming around to what I and many other prescient people were saying years ago. You'll notice a lot of original Tesla fans like me and even @wk057 many years ago have given up on Tesla fixing these unacceptable problems, because Tesla has shown a continual lack of regard for simple issues such as these. Tesla has some sort of mental block that prevents them from seeing past their naval of policies of strategic market positioning to realize they have to do some things right even if their inner MBA screams out in pain. The natural talent that Tesla had humming around it years ago to fix this has probably long ago evaporated, and now to fix it Tesla would have to get some really bright fully invested full time executive managers to do the job. I think the CEO would be able to do it if they were a full time hands-on engineer-minded software programmer mechanical designer systems designer person that did not come from the fully conflicted East Coast Multiboard of Directors club or the dinosaur MBA auto club. I.e., someone like Elon Musk, but who isn't CEO of & involved in SpaceX.

In other words, it's possible Tesla will fix it, but it's less likely than ever before.

Here: Let me make some East Coast Multiboard MBAs scream out in pain: THIRD PARTY REPAIR SHOPS. There, that was easy, wasn't it? Oh, you refuse? We don't have to buy your car. (I have a Mercedes, thank you very much.)
 
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Aha. You're finally coming around to what I and many other prescient people were saying years ago. You'll notice a lot of original Tesla fans like me and even @wk057 many years ago have given up on Tesla fixing these unacceptable problems, because Tesla has shown a continual lack of regard for simple issues such as these. Tesla has some sort of mental block
yeah, I don't get what's wrong with their thinking

that prevents them from seeing past their naval of policies of strategic market positioning to realize they have to do some things right even if their inner MBA screams out in pain. The natural talent that Tesla had humming around it years ago to fix this has probably long ago evaporated, and now to fix it Tesla would have to get some really bright fully invested full time executive managers to do the job. I think the CEO would be able to do it if they were a full time hands-on engineer-minded software programmer mechanical designer systems designer person that did not come from the fully conflicted East Coast Multiboard of Directors club or the dinosaur MBA auto club. I.e., someone like Elon Musk, but who isn't CEO of & involved in SpaceX.

In other words, it's possible Tesla will fix it, but it's less likely than ever before.

Here: Let me make some East Coast Multiboard MBAs scream out in pain: THIRD PARTY REPAIR SHOPS. There, that was easy, wasn't it? Oh, you refuse? We don't have to buy your car. (I have a Mercedes, thank you very much.)

While I generally agree with you, *especially* about third party repair shops.... what electric Mercedes do you have? If your car isn't electric, I feel sorry for you. Because gasoline cars suuuuuck.

I'm still waiting for a credible electric alternative to Tesla. It's taking a ridiculously long time. At this point, despite Tesla's awful behavior, they're going to be #1 for years and #2 for years after that. I'm still watching for the credible alternative. Most of them are literally inferior in every way to the Teslas, and more expensive. The major exception, the Hyundai/Kia offerings, haven't got enough battery cells to mass produce, and the same is true of several of the others. For another should-be exception, GM seems uninterested in increasing Bolt production and LG is taking the profit margin, and it is more expensive than Tesla. People will pay a little premium for basic customer service... but... As for the Jag, Porsche, and Audi, they are all so inferior and so overpriced that I really do wonder who would care enough about customer service to buy substantially worse cars for substantially more money; you don't have to deal with customer service that often.

Microsoft never got basic customer service right, and they became world-dominating. Facebook aided and abetted genocide, deliberately made their users unhappy, and basically performed as much customer disservice as I can think of, and they became world-dominating. I just think Tesla's fundamental cultural problems are not going to kill it until there's a real alternative.