So let's do some math:
600 People @ $200K / year = $120,000,000
Triple workforce for 3 years = $360,000,000 * 3 = $1,080,000,000
So for an investment of less than $1.5 billion Apple will have designed their own vehicle from scratch vs having to pony up maybe $350/share to purchase Tesla or roughly $45.5 billion. ($350/share is what I would estimate the take over premium would need to be to complete the purchase). So $1.5 billion looks like a bargain compared to what it would take to purchase Tesla. But they still need a car factory and batteries....
Really ???
1. The 1,800 staff count can only be for the planning, design, engineering, component and supplier sourcing planning/negotiations/testing etc. Apple would still need to hire and train people to ACTUALLY build or assemble and test the cars, including quality control etc.
2. Apple would need to develop marketing, advertising, distribution, shipping and servicing strategies, and action/ implementation plans and those 1800 staff would also need to work on that!
3. Apple ( or if they use a contract manufacturer) would need start NOW on an actual factory for Mass manufacturing of at least 1 million cars. Because they will need scale economies. Tesla's current factory is apparently valued at a minimum of $10 billion and only has a capacity of 1/2 million cars. Even if it's BMW in Germany, or Hon Hai buying or building a car assembly factory for Apple in China , or wherever, Apple or their outsourced partner would need to start that no later than 2016 on the infrastructure and people for that effort. The 1800 staff does NOT include any headcount for that.
If Apple plans to assemble on their own, then Apple would need to hire and train many more thousands of staff for the factory manufacturing and assembly.
Even if it's a BMW JV they, BMW, would need to start well ahead of 2019 and BMW would need to negotiate some sort of deal with the notoriously difficult German unions who will no doubt want to know what will happen to those current BMW factory workers whose jobs may be at risk from BMW making cars for Apple that will no doubt cut into BMW sales.
4. Apple ( or a battery supplier ) would need to start the build out ( including land acquisition ) of a gigafactory to feed the factory for at least 1 million cars a year. Even if it's Panasonic, it can't start in 2019 !!!!! If Apple is going that on their own, well the headcount of many thousands of people needed for that are not included in the 1800. Apple can't just cut a deal with Panasonic to supply batteries for their cars in 2017 and expect Pansonic or whoever to start that in 2017 and have a supply of batteries for even half a million cars set to feed Apple.....there is simply no one out there NOW with that kind of battery supply capacity to feed Apple in 2019 even. And it can't start in 2017 !!!!
5. Apple would need to start now or in the next 6-12 months maximum, of building a infrastructure of fast charging stations . It will take several years to match Tesla from land acquisition to construction. No headcount is included in the 1800 staff for that ...I am sure !!!
6. Apple cannot sell or service cars in their current Apple stores, so that too ( a showroom and service network ) would need to start in the next 6-12 months and the headcount for that is not included in the 1800 staffing . Unless they are going to outsource that to the BMW dealers who don't know anything about all electric cars, let alone one from Apple ! I can't see a current BMW dealer agreeing to that !!!
7. If Apple plans to use BMW or some sort of Hon Hai type company to outsource production ex USA then there is the BIG issue of margins !!! After shipping a car from Asia or Germany ( when Tesla will not incur those kinds of costs ), Apple would need to figure out how to be price competitive with Tesla ....who is manufacturing on their own , with many of the parts made in house ....including batteries !!!! A fully integrated competitor with a head start with both battery and car manufacturing and service all integrated as a part of their strategy and business model.
So, unless Apple starts now to build a car manufacturing and assembly factory and a build a gigafactory for batteries with minimal shipping to the USA costs ( vs outsourcing overseas) , Apple simply will have to absorb the mark up of supplier margins over production costs by the outsourced company for batteries and car manufacturing assembly.
HOW exactly then would Apple price their cars to be competitive with Tesla to make a decent profit margin ???
So, in my opinion, unless Apple builds both the car manufacturing and battery production on their own, I,e fully integrated, they simply will get out- priced by Tesla, by maybe at a minimum $5,000 to $8,500 per car !
Will Apple's car be that much better than Tesla's car in 2019 or 2020 that people will pay $5,000 - $8,500 per car more, in large numbers ( say 1 million buyers per year ) over what they would pay for a Tesla car???
Folks, it's just worth reflecting on all of this.
Whether Apple builds on their own and matches Tesla from a cost standpoint, or buys batteries from say a Panasonic ....and outsources to BMW or a Hon Hai type manufacturer in Germany or Asia for assembly and then ships those cars to the USA ......after both the outsourced battery supplier and car assembler has added their margins.....in either scenario, 90 percent of the work is NOT included in the 1800 head count!!!
I just don't see how Apple can compete unless they BOTH build the batteries and assemble the cars on their own without having to share margins with others in the supply chain....IF they want to compete against a fully integrated Tesla with a multi year head start ! Unless, Apple buys Tesla !!!