Yawn - Elon tweeted about more Superchargers

[wayner]

Elon tweeted the following today:

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 32m32 minutes ago
Tesla Supercharger capacity will double by end of next year. Expect to be within range of 95% to 100% of population in all active markets.

Is he telling the truth, lying through his teeth or just exaggerating? Let's look at the Superchargers that Tesla had announced that were to open in 2017 in Ontario. By my account there were 20. Of these four were opened in 2017. Nine more opened in 2018. (My 2017/8 split may be off by one or two as Etobicoke may have opened right at the end of 2017) Seven more still have not opened and are unlikely to open in 2018 - these are the two in Mississauga, North York, St Cath, Vaughan, Renfrew and North Bay.

And then there were a whole bunch more that were suppossed to open in 2018, like these. I don't beleive any of these are open or have even been started yet.
Strathroy
Kitchener
Orangeville
Toronto - Liberty Village
Toronto - Yonge & Eg
Toronto - Annex
Scabrorough
Orillia
North Bay
Deep River
Brockville

And then there were 13 more on the Trans Canada route from Sudbury to Winnipeg. Have any of those even been permitted yet.

And this is only Ontari, ari, ari, O.

So why should we believe him this time?

 

[Dakkor]

There was supposed to be like 10-15 new supercharger in Quebec also and we got... 3 i think.

I don't drink the Kool-Aid since 2 years I would say.

 

[MarcoRP]

There was supposed to be like 10-15 new supercharger in Quebec also and we got... 3 i think.

I don't drink the Kool-Aid since 2 years I would say.

Dos.

I’m getting the feeling that the Scarborough, OV, and Brockville Superchargers are in construction now. Maybe

 

[PLUS EV]

But this time he really means it!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Probably accurate next year, but sales will be much higher, so not so impressive.

 

[wayner]

Dos.

I’m getting the feeling that the Scarborough, OV, and Brockville Superchargers are in construction now. Maybe

Any idea where the Scarborough one is? I live in Scarborough and could do a drive by. I would think the area that would make the most sense is just south of the 401, between the Scarborough Town Centre and the 401 - right by the Best Buy on Progress Ave.

 

[BerTX]

At least now you know the upper limit. It won't be MORE than that.

 

[bonnie]

Historically, Tesla has kept (and sometimes exceeded) promises for number of superchargers, just not locations. And the locations that don't happen on schedule are ALWAYS the ones that you want. But they do happen. And new ones pop up where you didn't know they were going to be. A lot get held up with permitting and local regs.

After just under 9 years of driving a Tesla, there are plenty of things that I put in the category of 'won't happen as fast as they say'. But supercharger installs? Yep, those happen. Just might not be the location that you personally want.

 

[PLUS EV]

Historically, Tesla has kept (and sometimes exceeded) promises for number of superchargers

This just isn't true.

 

[Jerk]

Tesla needs to hire a company like Petroservice.com to do SC installations, we would have 20k SC in no time.
I saw them install an Irving gas pumps/station in one night, they brought in a massive crew with flood lights, generators & tools and worked overnight nonstop like a nascar pit crew and they were finished by the morning and gone to the next install/upgrade location.

 

[Firewired]

We are going to need exponential growth of Superchargers with growth curve of the 3s hitting the road and new models in the pipeline.

 

[Bet TSLA]

But supercharger installs? Yep, those happen.

You know this isn't true. 10,000 stalls? Double? Double again? He keeps saying these things and it doesn't happen. Not even vaguely close. Fred has it about right here.

However, my impression is that the expansion is always constrained by money. Given that Tesla is now minting money, financing supercharger buildout will be mouse nuts. So I'm hopeful this time.

 

[Jerk]

We are going to need exponential growth of Superchargers with growth curve of the 3s hitting the road and new models in the pipeline.

Tesla may not need as many with the V3 SC rollout. Maybe V3 could be like a gas station, you pull up to the SC,plugin and 5 mins later your on your way like an ice auto

 

[bonnie]

You know this isn't true. 10,000 stalls? Double? Double again? He keeps saying these things and it doesn't happen. Not even vaguely close. Fred has it about right here.

However, my impression is that the expansion is always constrained by money. Given that Tesla is now minting money, financing supercharger buildout will be mouse nuts. So I'm hopeful this time.

Fred has been cranky towards Tesla lately, mostly when impacted personally. He's in Canada, so ...

Not that many months ago, he was pretty bullish about the supercharger rollout to-date. https://electrek.co/2018/05/12/tesla-supercharger-2018-growth/

 

[Vitold]

“Supercharger capacity will double” means no more sharing charging rate with adjacent stall, plus maybe faster charge rate for M3.

It does not mean twice the locations.

 

[RiverBrick]

iirc for Quebec

Projected/Delivered

2013 : 0/1
2014 : 0/1
2015 : 2/4
2016 : 2/4
2017 : 7/15
2018 : 2/13

Next year's map will probably have the 11 stragglers from 2018 and one or two new locations (Mont Joli for the Gaspesie, please).

So, for 2019 I expect four or five out of 11-13 projected sites in Quebec.

 

[RiverBrick]

Tesla has gone away from building 2-4 stall sites in North America in order to avoid overcrowding and provide redundancy. However, there are lots of long lonely stretches of highway in Canada where small sites would be appropriate.

In Quebec there's actually a special electricity rate offered for fast charging. No per kW demand charges and as low as $0.10/kWh as long as peak demand doesn't exceed 200 kW. This could allow Tesla to save on Supercharger operating costs by going with 2-stall locations in places like L'Étape, Saguenay and Mont Joli.

 

[mociaf9]

1. The only supercharger which you can reliably predict will be open/operating 12 months from now is a supercharger that is already open/operating.
   
2. All statements from Elon/Tesla about future supercharger build outs are only representative of Today's Plan (TM).
   
3. Today's Plan(TM) can change tomorrow. Tesla, like pretty much all Musk Companies, is "a fast-moving company" which has a strong picture of what their "future, lofty goals" are, but are perfectly willing to pivot to a new plan for how exactly to reach those goal more than 12 times a year. Same with SpaceX. Some will laud this as "being nimble". Some will pan it as "being tactically disorganized or rudderless." So long as you don't rely on Today's Plan (TM) to be delivered on by it's planned date, the distinction is mostly irrelevant.
   
4. It mostly doesn't matter that Tesla failed to deliver on the exact particulars of Yesterday's Plan by its announced deliver date, so long as they've reasonable moved closer to the "future, lofty goals." (Though of course for individual customer experience, this may pose certain problems/challenges. For where you went astray, see point 1 above)
5. Not all supercharger delays are due to Tesla plans changing. They also relate to getting a multitude of various approvals related to building
   
6. All future plans are also changeable subject to the general needs of the business.

So, all that being said. IMO, most of the reasons why plans for the 2017 & 2018 Ontario/TC supercharger build outs fell so far short are tied to company financials and the delays experienced in building/delivering the Model 3. Though some are to over promising of what was likely to be able to be achieved. e.g. Unless Tesla already had site lease agreements signed for almost all the TransCanada sites and was already moving them through the local planning/zoning process, it was basically impossible that they would deliver on the schedule outlined. Hopefully, so long as Elon is right that Tesla will remain internally cash-flow positive or profitable, most of the internal stumbling blocks will have been removed. If Tesla remains profitable/cash-flow positive and they don't put a major dent in the "promised" sites next year, IMO, that will show real problems.

 

[1.21 Jiggawatts]

I realize that the deployment of superchargers is probably proportional to cars sold and population base... But its hilarious to hear everyone complain about superchargers when they have 10 in their province already. Plus you have level 3 options.

You guys don' know how good you have it, seriously.

 

[sakimano]

Fred has been cranky towards Tesla lately, mostly when impacted personally. He's in Canada, so ...

You realise this is the Canada section right?
Camina