Your Model S Sequence

[Todd Burch]

Arnold, great point...I was thinking the same thing.

Zextra, thanks for the data point...I'll put out an updated plot in a little while, if anyone cares . And you must be an extraterrestrial if you don't have a cell phone...

Looks like the reservations have slowed just a tad, probably because of Tesla's recent relative silence regarding the S.

 

[steve841]

Well... my deposit has been in for over a month...

I'd be lying if I said my comfort level hasn't slipped.

There has been press about Tesla stopping Roadster production to focus on the Model S. But ... the silence by Tesla referred to above ... is adding greatly to my uneasy feelings about Tesla's future.

One would expect a production facility to be named by this point at the very least...

Am I being overly paranoid?

 

[vfx]

I thought Tesla's silence is because they are required to after announcing a coming IPO.

 

[Todd Burch]

Steve,

No offense of course, but yes, I think you're being overly paranoid .

Tesla's relative silence lately has a great bit to do with the fact that they're in the middle of the IPO process. It's not uncommon for companies in this process to "go silent", as they want to avoid anything that might have the appearance of upsetting the investor apple cart (as I understand it). I think a lot of people are interpreting the silence as a problem. It's really not, per se.

As far as the discontinuation of the Roadster is concerned, my understanding is that they are merely stopping the product line in order to do re-tooling at the factory.

Besides, folks are still getting reservation spots for the S that have expected deliveries of Q2 2012.

Tesla's had a lot of good press, they've stated that reservations for the Model S have exceeded their expectations so far, they've got DOE loan approval (which would've required a convincing business case for the DOE to approve the loan), they're hiring like crazy, and...well...I wouldn't worry too much.

Will the S be late? Maybe. Chances are decent that they'll probably be at least a little late coming to production. But so far, indications are that Tesla's on track. We have to remember that the car's not even expected for another 21 months or so. No reason to speculate now.

Tesla's already done some incredibly impressive things, proving to the world that the general public's perception of EV's is wrong. We just have to give them the time to work everything out.

My two cents. (that's a lot to type on a smartphone!)

 

[Arnold Panz]

One would expect a production facility to be named by this point at the very least...

Am I being overly paranoid?

Yes -- Tesla doesn't need to have the production facility up and running until probably 6 months before the first cars start rolling off, and that's builing in time to stop production to make sure all the kinks are worked out. Getting the technology worked out (if they haven't already), the final design elements, and all of various parts and materials to build the cars are much bigger challenges to Tesla to get the cars produced on time than getting the facility finalized and retrofitted. It's really the last piece of the puzzle, so the lack of an announcement on the final location, while frustrating for us, likely won't be the cause of any delay in production of the S.

I thought Tesla's silence is because they are required to after announcing a coming IPO.

The "silent period" isn't quite that broad a prohibition on public statements. If Tesla selected a facility for production of the S, or had something else busines-related to announce (like the Tag Hauer partnership), they're free to do so. I think, though, in Silicon Valley many companies have gone to almost complete radio silence in their quiet period because Google got in some trouble for talking a bit out of school during its quiet period, so probably better safe than sorry is the mantra for companies like Tesla at this point.

 

[Cobos]

Yes -- Tesla doesn't need to have the production facility up and running until probably 6 months before the first cars start rolling off, and that's builing in time to stop production to make sure all the kinks are worked out. Getting the technology worked out (if they haven't already), the final design elements, and all of various parts and materials to build the cars are much bigger challenges to Tesla to get the cars produced on time than getting the facility finalized and retrofitted. It's really the last piece of the puzzle, so the lack of an announcement on the final location, while frustrating for us, likely won't be the cause of any delay in production of the S.

This was the first time I've heard anyone say it only takes 6 months to get the assembly line up and running properly? Do you have any references for that? How long time does GM f.inst. usually take to do this kind of thing?

Cobos

 

[Todd Burch]

Figures I've heard are generally around the 18 month timeframe for getting it up and running, although I have no references to really support that figure other than heresay. 6 months seems like it would be an insanely fast time...especially for a building with no initial automobile assembly infrastructure.

If the 18 month figure is accurate, then there's still time...

 

[Arnold Panz]

Figures I've heard are generally around the 18 month timeframe for getting it up and running, although I have no references to really support that figure other than heresay. 6 months seems like it would be an insanely fast time...especially for a building with no initial automobile assembly infrastructure.

If the 18 month figure is accurate, then there's still time...

Sorry, I should clarify -- it will take probably 12-18 months after selection of a location to get the first cars rolling off the assembly line, but that includes getting permits, retrofitting the facility, hiring employees, getting the raw materials and other parts needed etc. By "up and running", I'm assuming all of this has already happened, and when they actually turn the switch on and begin building cars, they'll need a few months (I'd usually build in 6 to be safe) to actually get the first cars built from start to finish, because even though in ideal circumstances it will only be a few weeks from start to finish, when an auto plant starts, there are a zillion problems/bugs that have to be dealt with and addressed (things are missing, don't fit together properly, employees don't know what they're doing, tons of inspections etc.) that don't occur once everything is working smoothly.

I have worked for logistics companies involved in the manufacture of various car models (GM, Saturn, Ford, BMW etc.) and auto parts makers (i.e., Delphi), and have seen the process first-hand. And those are experienced car companies, so their processes are probably smoother than whatever Tesla has in mind because it's their first time doing this themselves.

My only point was, there continues to be frustration expressed regarding the fact that Tesla hasn't announced the location of the plant yet, and that somehow that signals a delay in production of the Model S. I'm assuming Tesla has some sort of timeline laid out, and I'd be pretty certain that the auto industry veterans who are helping Tesla make that timeline are building a (hopefully much more detailed than mine) timeline that doesn't require more than 18 months from selection of the site to the first cars rolling off the assembly line. The Model S may very well get delayed, but the fact that they haven't selected a site yet for the plant doesn't mean anything is delayed at this point.

 

[KBF]

There has been press about Tesla stopping Roadster production to focus on the Model S. But ... the silence by Tesla referred to above ... is adding greatly to my uneasy feelings about Tesla's future.

I just received an email newsletter today saying that they are extending the Roadster sales into 2012, and are increasing production by 40% due to demand. They're also expanding into Australia and Asia. Things are looking quite good right now.

 

[Todd Burch]

Yes, definitely a good thing. That will help reduce Tesla's losses as they build a new car company.

This will put them even further ahead of their own expectations. Can't wait until I can get some Tesla stock!

I'm getting a feeling that the factory location announcement is coming soon...

 

[Jkam]

I got a phone call from a Tesla Sales Rep yesterday. It was partially a sales call trying to get me to lease a Roadster, but he gave me some updates too.

1) They are close to announcing the factory site. I get the sense they have the sight picked, but just working out the details.
2) They are firming up supply chains for parts
3) They are still on course to have Model S ready for early 2012 release

I am in line for a Signature S, but he didn't mention whether the Signature S is on track for late 2011.

 

[Lush1]

FWIW, I put down my 5k on 3/5/10 and got #P1712.

I'm not liking the paucity of current news and unanswered email from sales rep. I flip-flop from worrying that they don't stand a snowball's chance in hell of finding, building and staffing a factory and churning out 20,000 cars a year starting 18-24 months from now and having the kind of faith in Tesla that I had in Santa Clause when I was 4. But what do I know? Nothing, that's the problem. It's making me feel bi-polar, and I'm not. Why the cone of silence that has descended on Tesla recently?

 

[stopcrazypp]

Why the cone of silence that has descended on Tesla recently?

Other members suggested that it is likely because of their IPO announcement, which usually is followed by a quiet period (see previous page in this thread).

Jkam's update is encouraging, but in general I wouldn't expect sales reps to say much until Tesla is very close to announcing something.

 

[Todd Burch]

Lush,

Congrats, sit back, and relax. Sales reps have hinted to customers that the factory location's already been chosen...but not yet announced.

Just enjoy the ride. . All is well.

 

[Palpatine]

FWIW, I put down my 5k on 3/5/10 and got #P1712.

I'm not liking the paucity of current news and unanswered email from sales rep.

That means that there are 2,000+ orders counting Signature series, Roadster owners and regular production. Plus other countries have other number orders.

Please be aware that ALL of the sales reps are assigned to Roadster sales at this time.

There is perhaps one person assigned to Model S sales tracking. I met him. And it is not his only assignment. If there are over 2,000 to 2,500 Model S deposits, then that alone could lead to a flood of emails to answer.

The sales staff is not compensated for Model S deposits.
As I understand it, they only get paid on Tesla Roadster sales right now.

I would not expect a lot of answers on the Model S from individuals in the sales staff at Tesla Motors.
It is not their priority right now.

 

[PopSmith]

I Just got a confirmation number of P1722 (March 9) still expected for 2nd Q.

FWIW, I put down my 5k on 3/5/10 and got #P1712.

Ten reservations in four days isn't bad, although it equates to ~75 reservations in a month, slightly lower than the almost constant 100/month previously mentioned by Todd Burch.

I'm still curious to see what will happen when Tesla officially announces the factory location as well as it's initial construction date. Hopefully they'll see a large increase in reservations at that time. :smile:

 

[Iz]

Based on my reservation in late October it averages to ~ 75/month as well.

It would be great to know the total number of reservations thus far including Sig and international. Should be > 2000, although I am very eager to know what TM will do if the 2000 Sig models are not reserved come production time.

 

[Todd Burch]

Just an update on US (P) reservations:

As some have pointed out, the reservation rate has slacked slightly (see the right side of the graph), most likely due to the IPO and the relative quiet lately.

I'm thinking reservations will pick back up again when the factory announcement comes.

 

[KenEE]

Hello Everyone,

Longtime Lurker here - car nut and fan of Tesla.

I love engineering and creating things above and beyond what is required.

That's why I've reserved my Model S. I've been planning on it since they started taking reservations, but the NUMMI/Toyota deal pushed me over the edge.

I would have rather they partner with GM and A123 over Toyota and Panasonic, but overall I'm pleased with the progress.

I'm also a big fan of the Volt, but with GM's timid production plans it will be some years before they are readily available. (plus I really need 5 seats and some storage capacity)

Anyway, I'm number 1937 in the P line. (5/24/2010)

Looking forward to taking part in some of the discussions and most of all (of course) taking possession of my Model S in 2012!

(BTW, I've got a few tidbits of info from speaking with Tesla, but I wasn't sure if it was ok to post in the forum.)

Ken

 

[steve841]

(BTW, I've got a few tidbits of info from speaking with Tesla, but I wasn't sure if it was ok to post in the forum.)

Ken

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