Autonomous Car Progress

[diplomat33]

@electronblue You are right to point out the need for traffic sign recognition and other features that are lacking. Yes, Tesla will certainly need to add those features sooner or later if they ever hope to have a FSD prototype. So I am just assuming that the features will get done at some point.

I think the open question is how and when. For example, we don't know if Tesla will add traffic signs, and other features like it, right away in the first version of "automatic city driving" or whether they release "automatic city driving" piece by piece as a driver assist and then add traffic sign recognition and other needed features later to complete it and make it autonomous. Either way, yes, Tesla will need to do those features like traffic sign recognition if they are serious about FSD. I am certainly not suggesting that a system without traffic sign recognition would be FSD.

 

[electronblue]

@diplomat33 I agree Tesla needs to add them eventually — and I expect they will.

The thing so far is: Tesla has been pretty much what you see is what you get on autonomous. There has not been any major surprises and when something has sounded too good to be true, it has been too good to be true. Basically it has been a predictable evolution, once we got enough information to understand how and what Tesla is working on.

Since we have not heard of traffic sign recognition (beyond stops and lights), this theory would suggest they are not done — or perhaps not even started yet. Who knows, just putting this out there.

 

[diplomat33]

@diplomat33 I agree Tesla needs to add them eventually — and I expect they will.

The thing so far is: Tesla has been pretty much what you see is what you get on autonomous. There has not been any major surprises and when something has sounded too good to be true, it has been too good to be true. Basically it has been a predictable evolution, once we got enough information to understand how and what Tesla is working on.

Since we have not heard of traffic sign recognition (beyond stops and lights), this theory would suggest they are not done — or perhaps not even started yet. Who knows, just putting this out there.

Yes, I get that. Which is why I've tried to lower expectations. Let's not get too excited about "L5 feature complete no geofence". After all, based on what Tesla and Elon have said, it seems like the first iteration of FC that we get, could just be NOA on city streets, roundabouts, turning at intersections, traffic light and stop signs response. The other features would need to come later of course.

 

[boonedocks]

Yes, I get that. Which is why I've tried to lower expectations. Let's not get too excited about "L5 feature complete no geofence". After all, based on what Tesla and Elon have said, it seems like the first iteration of FC that we get, could just be NOA on city streets, roundabouts, turning at intersections, traffic light and stop signs response. The other features would need to come later of course.

What do you think Tesla will do with all of the pre-paid FSD upgrade $$$$$$$$ they have in holding until FSD is complete. I am suspiciously afraid that once Elon proclaims on Twitter that "feature complete" is complete that they will scoop up all of the remaining FSD monies. I surely hope not as the $$$$$$ should be a reward I you will, for actually delivering FSD coast to coast as proclaimed with no driver. Taking money for Advanced Summon was really a stretch in my opinion as it is all but still useless at this point. Party Trick....hell'ya....truly useable and functional.....nope not yet...

 

[DanCar]

... As to what cars use what system? I'd love to have a cheat sheet to see what makes/models actually used MobileEye. ...

Every car on the road that has an advanced camera system is using Mobileye as far as I know, except Tesla. Anyone know of a production car that isn't using mobileye except Tesla?
List of examples: Lane centering - Wikipedia

 

[Daniel in SD]

What do you think Tesla will do with all of the pre-paid FSD upgrade $$$$$$$$ they have in holding until FSD is complete. I am suspiciously afraid that once Elon proclaims on Twitter that "feature complete" is complete that they will scoop up all of the remaining FSD monies. I surely hope not as the $$$$$$ should be a reward I you will, for actually delivering FSD coast to coast as proclaimed with no driver. Taking money for Advanced Summon was really a stretch in my opinion as it is all but still useless at this point. Party Trick....hell'ya....truly useable and functional.....nope not yet...

The money isn't in an escrow account so it doesn't affect cash flow Recognizing the revenue does help the balance sheet of course. They recognized a trivial amount of revenue from Smart Summon ($30 million?) so they're not being aggressive about doing so.
My accounting question is whether or not they recognize revenue for FSD from lease returns or totaled vehicles? It seems like if a product no longer has to delivered then you can recognize the revenue...

 

[jepicken]

Since we have not heard of traffic sign recognition (beyond stops and lights), this theory would suggest they are not done — or perhaps not even started yet. Who knows, just putting this out there.

Has Elon / Tesla talked about recognizing other vehicles, pedestrians, cyclists, etc., and predicting their behavior? That seems to me like a more difficult problem, and just as important as recognizing the static environment, if not more so.

 

[diplomat33]

Has Elon / Tesla talked about recognizing other vehicles, pedestrians, cyclists, etc., and predicting their behavior? That seems to me like a more difficult problem, and just as important as recognizing the static environment, if not more so.

Our cars already detect and track other vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists.

 

[jepicken]

Our cars already detect and track other vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists.

Understood, but IMO, the current functionality is nowhere near good enough for full self driving on city streets. Do you think Elon just doesn't talk about it because the feature already exists, even though it needs a major leap in performance to be usable?

 

[diplomat33]

Understood, but IMO, the current functionality is nowhere near good enough for full self driving on city streets. Do you think Elon just doesn't talk about it because the feature already exists, even though it needs a major leap in performance to be usable?

I am sure that is something that Tesla will work on, yes. But first, Tesla wants to get traffic lights, stop signs and making turns at intersections done so that the car has the basic functionality to be able to drive from A to B with driver supervision. Then, Tesla will work on improving behavior prediction, adding traffic signs etc... to get the car up to actual autonomy.

 

[electronblue]

Let's not get too excited about "L5 feature complete no geofence".

I would wager absolutely nobody in the world that pays any attention gets excited about it regarding Tesla.

There are pretty much two types of reactions to it:

Those who ignore or downplay the statements made by Tesla.

And those who hold Tesla to their word, even when they believe Tesla will not keep it.

Neither seem exactly excited about the situation.

 

[electronblue]

Has Elon / Tesla talked about recognizing other vehicles, pedestrians, cyclists, etc., and predicting their behavior?

Our cars already detect and track other vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists.

But they don’t predict the movements of pedestrians etc. I guess the closest to predicting we know of was the Autonomy Investory Day clip on predicting lane encroaching cars.

Waymo on the other hand is known to be working already on reacting to the body movements of pedestrians before they actually become obstacles.

 

[diplomat33]

But they don’t predict the movements of pedestrians etc. I guess the closest to predicting we know of was the Autonomy Investory Day clip on predicting lane encroaching cars.

Waymo on the other hand is known to be working already on reacting to the body movements of pedestrians before they actually become obstacles.

Yes. that is one example among many where Waymo is way ahead of Tesla. Tesla definitely still has a lot to do before they can achieve full autonomy. No argument there.

 

[SandiaGrunt]

This conversation is boring now. C’mon, won’t someone say something ridiculous? @CarlK where are you?

 

[Cheburashka]

Zoox has been making some pretty aggressive moves.

Looks like they will be announcing something big (at least to the investors) before they raise their next round of capital.

 

[alsetym]

Agreed, those are also part of an HD map.

But do you see that Tesla now uses maps that have hand-edited lane lanes? Their maps now also include traffic lights and overpasses.

It’s a very slippery slope, my friend. Tesla is the map-less company that just keeps adding more and more dependence on maps.

Imagine going back a year in time and telling Tesla fans that “full self-driving” and ”automatically drive anywhere connected by land” actually really meant they’d soon be hand-editing lane lines in their local parking lots!

Nice moon walk. So now that we all agree the never have and still don't use HD maps...next subject.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Every car on the road that has an advanced camera system is using Mobileye as far as I know, except Tesla. Anyone know of a production car that isn't using mobileye except Tesla?
List of examples: Lane centering - Wikipedia

I don't believe Subaru does with their Eyesight system.

Dissecting Subaru Eyesight Stereo Cameras

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

@S4WRXTTCS My understanding is that speed-sign recognition is done by several autonomous companies, just not Tesla. Of course its most visible form are the dozens of car brands using MobilEye where indeed it is mated to a database and both are usually used to determine what to show the user.

You do realize there are dynamic speed signs in many parts of the world? Speed limits changing due to traffic or weather or the time of year. This is not something that is optional for a Level 5 no geofence feature complete car. It always puzzles me that people like @diplomat33 and Elon Musk keep talking autonomous driving as if it is just about navigating, steering within lane, selecting exits/turns and stopping at stop signs and traffic lights... that is nowhere near what is needed for an autonomous car and traffic signs (speeds included) are one major important part of that.

If you want to make an autonomous car that is not reliant on maps for anything other than path-finding, you need to understand most traffic signs.

Tesla has talked very little about their solution to this.

When I was referring to digital speed limits in my post I was referring to dynamic or conditional speed limits. I called them Digital as it's a digital display.

An interesting part of this is that Tesla actually supposedly supports this, but I don't regularly drive on a road with a dynamic speed limit so I haven't been able to test it out.

Tesla Releases New Software Updates, Includes Immediate Forced Update - Tesla Motors Club

My argument was this makes sign reading less important as with a digital system the online maps have to be updated in real time. Or they have to use some kind of V2E communication. The speed sign itself is really only for legacy purposes for older vehicles or offline vehicles.

It seems a little silly to read a sign visually when the sign can just communicate to you what the speed limit is.

I also don't think it's really up to the manufacture of the vehicle. I strongly feel like the federal government needs to take a more activate role in it so we have established standards for things like V2E communication.

Speaking of regulations Tesla has to either implement sign reading or a much better speed limit system than what they have by 2022 or they won't be able to sell their cars into Europe.
All new UK cars to have speed limiters by 2022 under EU plans

So the Europeans are coming to our rescue.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Our cars already detect and track other vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists.

Sometimes with hilarious results.

PSA: Be careful with pedestrians near the edge of the roadway. My model 3 slammed on the brakes for the guy standing off to the side of the road confusing both him and other onlookers. Very startling for my wife and I as well as a little embarrasing! : teslamotors

 

[scottf200]

I don't believe Subaru does with their Eyesight system.

This document talks about their system.
Subaru EyeSight Father Returns in Stereo Vision
https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1333300#

And this one:
Dissecting Subaru Eyesight Stereo Cameras
Eyesight is a serial ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance System) installed on Subaru cars. The camera is developed and manufactured by Hitachi.<snip>
Unlike systems from other manufacturers (for example: MobilEye, BOSH), Eyesight has a number of interesting differences.