Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

No one here thinks that they can run the company better. Elon is the man for the job. He doesn’t do shareholders and favors with his wildly optimistic timelines and guidance. That’s the problem and the market is sick of it. The market is blind without guidance and will just assume the worst

With Elon you get the whole package, you can’t choose what you keep and what not.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Edit - I originally pointed out the picture was Google Maps, not a Tesla screen shot, but others already covered that. Continuing....

To me it's clear that the trucker was at fault.

You're quibbling over legal issues and missing the big picture. It doesn't matter if the truck driver was at fault. It doesn't matter that the Tesla driver didn't pay close enough attention. All that matters for TSLA:

1. Musk just pinned the future value entirely on FSD
2. Musk said "Anyone who uses lidar is doomed"
3. Musk claims billions of miles mean Tesla learns faster and no one can catch up: "Game Set Match"
4. And yet, three years and billions of miles later, AP still can't recognize the broad side of a semi truck.

This isn't some extreme corner case. This is a huge trailer on a flat road in broad daylight. Tesla has thousands of videos of trucks crossing roads. They have data from an identical crash. This is the one non-corner case you'd expect them to test exhaustively until they get it right every #*&% time. Where is the learning they tout? Where is the attention to obvious problems?

And don't tell me about the new chip. HW 2.5 has more than enough computational power to handle such basic and obvious cases. Tesla is just a very, very long way from full self driving.​

 

[Alphacrux]

But for those of us who bought after Private tweet, we had ample opportunity to sell when the SP was near ATH in December.

Was SP near ATH just in December? Feels like forever.

 

[ReflexFunds]

The US is to lift its steel and aluminium tarrifs on Canada and Mexico. I think steel is likely the largest raw material costs in Model 3 so this could potentially be significant for Tesla. I don't know where Tesla gets is steel supply from, but given its factory location and that we know a large amount of Model 3s suppliers are in Mexico (25% of parts content is Mexico), it's possible this tariff reduction could directly reduce costs. If Tesla's steel is produced in the US anyway, this could potentially still drive US steel prices lower.

"The U.S. plans to lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico in favor of stronger enforcement actions, according to people familiar with the matter, in a move that will help clear the way for ratification of the new Nafta.
The U.S. tariffs are expected to be lifted about 48 hours after an official announcement, which will likely be made as early as Friday. "

"The move would lift the 25% steel and 10% aluminum tariffs the U.S. placed on the two trading neighbors almost a year ago in the name of national security."

 

[W84M3]

217 broken means another stair down

 

[voip-ninja]

Why do so many people think they can do better at running a company that is at the cutting edge of technology, when most of them are probably already having a hard time running a household or marriage? Elon is upsetting several global industries at the same time, but dozens here think they can do a better job...

Elon, with all his quirks, is one of a kind and anyone else would have run Tesla or SpaceX into the ground a long time ago. Simple question: would any of us have decided to equip every single Tesla with a full camera suit without knowing if people would actually be paying for them? No, we wouldn’t. We would have only installed the cameras in cars of people who ordered and paid for them. Because we lack Elons capacity for unorthodox thinking.

Your camera example is a poor one. Plenty of cars include things like LTE hardware even if it's turned off for customers who don't purchase the hotspot/data/streaming packages that make use of it.

Tesla almost definitely included cameras (and LTE) on all cars so that they could harvest street mapping and driving information whether or not the consumer purchased AP.

We have no way of knowing even if Elon personally made this decision as there are plenty of smart program managers and engineers who might have come up with a similar calculation.

Elon is a brilliant man but it's silly to think that this company would go into a death spiral without him at the helm. People predicted that Apple would go into the toilet after Jobs died and Tim took over but Apple is doing quite well and has started to morph from a CE company into a services company.

Hell, Buffet just bought AAPL.

People put too much stock into Elon's genius. It should be clear to anyone that he has harmed the company as much as helped it this last 12 months with all of his sideshow distractions.

 

[gene]

California is doing ok, but I track the CRVP rebate applications (extrinsically) and I still see a 20% decline over April here in May. Either buyers are wealthy and cannot apply, or don't know about it, or sales are good in certain areas of CA only (where gas prices are indeed higher). You don't buy a *NEW* car to save a bit on gas prices. Especially if noticing the SuperCharger per-kWh prices that would follow. Having an at-home tiered rate or an EV second meter is essential to beating gas prices in CA.

@bonaire, you do know that the CRVP can not be applied for until the car owner receives his California registration and plates in the mail. This takes 2 to 4 weeks after the car is delivered. Very few cars sold in the second 1/2 of April, and nearly zero cars in May would have the needed registration to make the CRVP application at all.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Why do you think it did not?

okay, in case you didn't read any of those posts and this is just an honest jumping to "but autopilot!!!!! OMOGGBBQ!!!"

The NTSB preliminary report (which I linked) is silent on the distance between the Tesla and the semi when the semi failed to yield right of way and pulled out in front of it. Maybe it was 10 minutes, but the frame they posted is clearly from the Tesla and it shows close proximity to an intersection, the approach to which is obstructed by trees.

What we know:
- the semi failed to yield right of way
- the semi slowed while in front of the Tesla
- the semi recklessly pulled out without a view of the traffic it was obstructing
- the Tesla was close to the intersection when this happened
- the Tesla was moving quickly (speed limit was 55mph, Tesla was 68mph, unknown what other traffic was doing)
- there was a vehicle in front of the Tesla so the semi approaching the intersection would have seen it whip by as a reminder that there was right of way traffic

What we don't know:
- how fast did the semi recklessly drive
- just what little fraction of time the semi gave the Tesla before impact

But, the NTSB knows the answers to all of this. The Tesla dashcam video shows the semi pulling out in front. The movement between frames allows them to calculate the velocity with fair precision. It also shows the moment the semi driver pulled out, if he edged out first or simply came flying out at 45 mph while slamming the brakes to make his left turn.

The NTSB knows the answers and could have included them in the preliminary report, but they chose not to. But they did choose to include that AP was engaged 10s prior to the accident as if that were even relevant -- in terms of this accident it was currently engaged and that is the only thing that is relevant. What does it matter if it was 10s or 10m or 10h?

So, if you really think that it is so simple to avoid a vehicle that suddenly pulls in front of you, at speed, where you had no visibility as to its approach.

Well, it is clear why Tesla isn't employing you.

If, as you suggest is possible, that the trailer was not visible to AP or the driver until a brief moment before the impact then I concede that there is nothing AP or any driver could have done. I made the assumption that there was some time to react and that the driver was not paying attention and AP did not react.

It seems unlikely to me that there was no time to react but it is certainly possible.

 

[Driver Dave]

Good to read the real report and not the FUD spin.

Highway Preliminary Report: HWY19FH008

It is pretty crazy that the report focuses on autopilot being on, and not more info on the truck driver who crossed the highway and then slowed down in the middle.

"According to surveillance video in the area and forward-facing video from the Tesla, the combination vehicle slowed as it crossed the southbound lanes, blocking the Tesla’s path."

I want to know more about why the truck driver was cutting across the highway and stopping.

The fact that autopilot is on or off, is meaningless.

Because the driver is driving the car at all times, regardless of any aids, from simple cruise control to lane following tech.

This accident could have happened even if the driver was in a regular car, on cruise control, looking at his phone with his knee holding the car straight, and a truck drove across the road, and slowed down right in front of him.

In the end, the lesson is always, pay attention while driving. No matter if you are using the wheel, cruise control, or lane following systems.

 

[Driver Dave]

4. And yet, three years and billions of miles later, AP still can't recognize the broad side of a semi truck.

It actually might now with all the updates that have been rolling out.

But... if not now, it will. It will recognize trucks, dogs, stop signs, a ball bouncing across the road... anything that can be seen by a human can be taught to the system.

What Elon said is correct.

They have built a learning machine that sucks up video from the fleet, and then can be tagged to recognize anything it sees.

No one else is even close to having a data loop like this, the data the machine learning needs to actually be able to see anything it is taught.

But, like you, the market just doesn't get what a big deal this is.

Tesla Fleet -> Machine Learning -> Auto Pilot. and repeat.

Total game changer.

Total game over for anyone trying to catch up.

 

[mickificki]

interesting take on the recent bond offering: Tesla raises $2.4 billion in capital; Is Tesla desperate?; Taking a closer look at the deal - Empire Financial Research

Posted by A friend of Whitney tilson...hmmm

 

[gene]

Credit to JHM in a different thread. Good read: Tesla is turning rivals into roadkill – even in China | MINING.com

 

[Doggydogworld]

The cost of that convertible debt all-in when factoring the offsetting hedge and warrant transaction was ~8% which is in the ballpark of the current YTM on the unsecured bonds Tesla issued back in August of 2017. There is no "free lunch" so to speak, people see 2% coupon and think wow what a fantastic deal! The true cost is much higher,...

The cost to fully hedge out all dilution was 8.5%, but they only hedged dilution up to 607.50/share (in a weird twist, non-Musk shareholders incur double dilution above 607.50). Anyway, the cost of the bonds with the actual hedge was 6%.​

...and the hedging transactions required the underwriters to soak up a huge portion of the ~$800m equity offering.

That's a feature, not a bug...

 

[jepicken]

WTF is going on? Stock is falling off a cliff right now and I can't find any news to explain it...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Your camera example is a poor one. Plenty of cars include things like LTE hardware even if it's turned off for customers who don't purchase the hotspot/data/streaming packages that make use of it.

Tesla almost definitely included cameras (and LTE) on all cars so that they could harvest street mapping and driving information whether or not the consumer purchased AP.

We have no way of knowing even if Elon personally made this decision as there are plenty of smart program managers and engineers who might have come up with a similar calculation.

Elon is a brilliant man but it's silly to think that this company would go into a death spiral without him at the helm. People predicted that Apple would go into the toilet after Jobs died and Tim took over but Apple is doing quite well and has started to morph from a CE company into a services company.

Hell, Buffet just bought AAPL.

People put too much stock into Elon's genius. It should be clear to anyone that he has harmed the company as much as helped it this last 12 months with all of his sideshow distractions.

I didn’t say Tesla will go down the drain without Elon, I said that without him it wouldn’t be where it is now - at the forefront.

By the way, I believe that your attitude towards Tesla/Elon in your posts today is heavily influenced by the fact that you paid more for your car than someone else did.

 

[Leo9]

This smells like capitulation to me.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Similar to what happened with MobileEye couple of years back. That accident basically ended Mobile Eye's relation with Tesla.

They should train the NN to distinguish between long trailers and overhead pass/bridge that can look somewhat similar. The new 3D model that they can build out of cameras should help too.

Ofcourse, doesn't excuse the atrocious way the driver used AP. He essentially started AP and didn't pay attention for the next 8 seconds are so (out of 10 seconds before crashing). He did this just before an intersection. All this while going at 65 mph. My guess is he might have started AP because he wanted to do something else ?

ps : I should note, this accident is entirely the fault of the truck driver. He took a turn without first checking to make sure the road was clear.

We can't know whether the driver was paying attention, just that the car didn't detect hands on wheel. I get nagged every 5 or so minutes to put my hands on the wheel even though I already have my hands on the wheel, because I'm using too light a touch / following the car's movements too precisely to be detected.

It's possible the driver was totally irresponsible, it's also possible he was hands on and eyes forward right up until the moment of impact and couldn't react in time, or anywhere in between or combination thereof.

 

[anthonyj]

This smells like capitulation to me.

Need way more volume for capitulation and an actual bounce

 

[elasalle]

WTF is going on? Stock is falling off a cliff right now and I can't find any news to explain it...

Once in free fall, you don't need to push it any more ...
... does look like we will head to 180 .... (all the M3 ramp down the drain, if they announce MY this process might at least repeat)

 

[BioSehnsucht]

There are already splitters available now though, I have one on my 14-50 splitting my range and charger. <https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D4PT7T6/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o04_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1>

Yeesh. I wouldn't use one like that, you're asking to (hopefully) trip breakers (instead of burn down the house) if the car decides to charge in the middle of doing something with an appliance on the other half of the split. The point of things like Dryer Buddy is to automatically disconnect the car if the appliance is in use, so you don't have to worry about it.