Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StockCynic]

Wondering what people are thinking in terms of Chinese Model 3 reservations? On the one hand China is pushing 1.4B so that implies millions of potential buyers. But on the other hand they are only expected to sell about 1.5M electric cars this year, as opposed to 20M-ish cars total, most of which are a lot less expensive than the Model 3, and they are dropping electric incentives. If you assume Model takes 2-3% of the electric market that would be 30-45K, but on the flip side 2-3% of the overall car market would be 4-600K. Anybody want to take a stab at it that has a good perspective on it? Kind of wondering if they will pull in a couple hundred thousand reservations over the weekend or if it will take a lot longer.

Couple hundred thousand reservations? Maybe if the car was priced at $15-20k USD. From what I have read the China made version will be roughly 15% cheaper than the current imported SR+? If that is correct I definitely would not be getting hopes up for "hundreds of thousands"

 

[Papafox]

EV-CPO commented a few pages back that there's a code somewhere that describes the adaptive suspension vs. the regular air version.

Edit: here.

Thanks LN1_Casey. I suspect the car is an oddity, perhaps a refused delivery. With a fair number of people on the Model S and X delivery threads still waiting for their refreshed vehicles, the car is best regarded as an oddity rather than a sign of something else.

 

[ggr]

Mod: Very off-topic posts moved to range of single vs. dual motor (OT from Main) . No more discussion will be tolerated in this thread. --ggr

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Profit, or cost of doing business in China? Myself, I wondered why it wouldn't be closer to $30K for Chinese. Why more there, or is it a new variant? Isn't Tesla making nearly all their parts, so couldn't be shipping 3rd party parts to China.

I do welcome a Tesla taking some profit (like what... 30-40% margins in China?), but history and mission tells me the long game is low as you can go. Not great for current stock prices, but Tesla is far from a "Niche" market as some bears suggested today.

If Tesla China is 100% US owned, does China get anything out of this (other than more choices in going EV and interest on a loan). What am I missing?

When you manufacture in China rather than export to China your boost the Chinese economy by hiring local workers who spend that money in local stores etc. The people that get the first Model 3s made in China will pay extra because they are the first ones on the block to have the car. As they make more cars there the cost per car will come down and so will the price. Eventually Tesla's made in China should be cheaper there than in American because of the lower cost of labor etc.

 

[sparcs]

Wondering what people are thinking in terms of Chinese Model 3 reservations? On the one hand China is pushing 1.4B so that implies millions of potential buyers. But on the other hand they are only expected to sell about 1.5M electric cars this year, as opposed to 20M-ish cars total, most of which are a lot less expensive than the Model 3, and they are dropping electric incentives. If you assume Model takes 2-3% of the electric market that would be 30-45K, but on the flip side 2-3% of the overall car market would be 4-600K. Anybody want to take a stab at it that has a good perspective on it? Kind of wondering if they will pull in a couple hundred thousand reservations over the weekend or if it will take a lot longer.

Initial production at GF3 is only 1k to 2k per week and moving up to 3k. They will be production limited until they ramp up further so reservations matter less. Ramping up beyond 3k per week could start lowering costs and correspondingly prices. That could feed further demand. Same thing that basically happened at Fremont for Model 3 as they scaled up.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I found one in Missouri, with the adaptive suspension, and 3.0, so probably a Raven. 2019 Model S | Tesla

Isn’t Raven performance 345 mile range?

 

[ZachF]

SpaceX now worth $33.3b:

Michael Sheetz on Twitter

 

[ZeApelido]

Fred will basically writing gossip at this point...….anything to get his clicks. JB has sold shares on a consistent basis for years, regardless of the share price.

Oh and where did JB go for the past couple of months. How bout Giga 1 because ya know they've had battery constraints and guess what guys, JB's focus in on batteries. Or how bout the company that Tesla just about.....what do they do again? I think it has something to do with battery tech......hmmm just maybe the logical explanation is the obvious one.

I saw JB at a children's birthday party place a few months ago. He is alive, at least.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Please note that the charge port design of the Model 3 is different in Europe: the European Model 3 can’t supercharge via the upper part of the CCS port (the type 2 part), and all European superchargers have been updated to dual type2/ccs connectors. It is very well possible that this would require a very different CCS adapter implementation in Europe versus USA. So I wouldn’t assume that the existence of a European CCS adapter implies plausibility for a USA CCS adapter.

The CCS adapter for Model 3 in Type 2 regions is simply, plug it in, it's CCS Type 2 natively

The CCS adapter Tesla has developed for Type 2 regions is for the S/X which still use the modified Type 2 connection (the upper non-combo portion) for DCFC, and physically (not sure if electrically, that part may be done in the car, I seem to recall non-recent models will require retrofit of some components) adapts the CCS connection to the non-CCS connector on the car.

A CCS adapter for Type 1 regions would be similar, just with differently shaped inlets and outlets (and again possible retrofit requirements to enable it - this is unknown currently). The main difference would be that it would be useful for the Model 3 too, not just S/X.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Rules change.

Tesla joined CharIN, the organizing body for CCS, about 3 years ago .

Tesla Joins Industry Group Responsible for CCS Charging Standards

Maybe CHAdeMO is more important for Canada, in CA I would rather have CCS.

CA and possibly parts of the east coast may have CCS already rolled out, but geographically speaking most of NA has "better" coverage with CHAdeMO in mostly thanks to Nissan (both due to the number of Leafs sold encouraging the installation of CHAdeMO third party locations, and CHAdeMO installations at dealerships).

Granted, you'd have a hard time making a cross country journey on CHAdeMO only, but it might fill in some important gaps that could save you time (or at the very least, give you peace of mind).

I expect CCS to catch up to and possibly surpass CHAdeMO in terms of useful locations (but perhaps not - as most will likely be dual CHAdeMO / CCS installations, they may end up as a "tie" for locations). Once something close to parity happens, CCS will be the clear preference for Tesla owners as they are more likely to get a higher charge rate from CCS than CHAdeMO.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Isn’t Raven performance 345 mile range?

Yeah, it was already pointed out that the car is not a Raven. It was confusing since it had the adaptive suspension and the 3.0 AP.

 

[Maitri982]

You have to agree that the difference between "sleep in the car FSD" and "no humans in the car FSD" is significant, right?

not really. since there are other cars on the road with humans in them a car driving without humans has to reach the same level of FSD as one with humans in it IMO.

 

[ZeApelido]

Also I know someone who works very closely to JB, but I never talk to her. I would ask but would seem entirely odd, hmm...

 

[M3Rider]

Maybe I looked in the wrong place, but I didn't see reference to adaptive suspension on that Model S for sale. Please point out where. It's possible there was a reference but it was an error and has been changed by Tesla. Someone, if the adaptive suspension is mentioned, please point out where.

Here's the link.

A better marker is range.
P100D with a 315m range is not Raven, it'd be 345.

 

[Nocturnal]

CA and possibly parts of the east coast may have CCS already rolled out, but geographically speaking most of NA has "better" coverage with CHAdeMO in mostly thanks to Nissan (both due to the number of Leafs sold encouraging the installation of CHAdeMO third party locations, and CHAdeMO installations at dealerships).

Granted, you'd have a hard time making a cross country journey on CHAdeMO only, but it might fill in some important gaps that could save you time (or at the very least, give you peace of mind).

I expect CCS to catch up to and possibly surpass CHAdeMO in terms of useful locations (but perhaps not - as most will likely be dual CHAdeMO / CCS installations, they may end up as a "tie" for locations). Once something close to parity happens, CCS will be the clear preference for Tesla owners as they are more likely to get a higher charge rate from CCS than CHAdeMO.

Chargepoint is building several CCS fast charges in the Kansas City area this year from what they are telling me.

 

[Fact Checking]

not really. since there are other cars on the road with humans in them a car driving without humans has to reach the same level of FSD as one with humans in it IMO.

There's a couple of fundamental differences when an FSD car is driving without passengers:

• About half of the liabilities are occupant health damage costs in any traffic accident, especially if the Tesla car is at fault.
• When driving between destinations without customers, an empty FSD car can be driving super conservatively: yield, keep to the speed limit, factor in weather conditions, etc. etc. Since the violence of traffic accidents scales with energy, and energy scales with the square of speed, just dropping the speed to the speed limit has a significant effect on insurance costs and liabilities. The FSD car will also not be annoying customers by driving in a timid, easily bullied fashion.
• When driving between destinations without customers, an empty FSD car can drive the statistically safest route - i.e. it can do easy highway driving instead of that shortcut over complex urban terrain. It can use the Waymo tactics of avoiding risky left turns that LIDAR doesn't handle well, it can avoid residential zones when possible, etc.
  
• If the FSD car is uncertain about any traffic situation it can just safely slow down, pull over if possible safely and generally ask for help - this is not a practical option for a 'taxi driver' FSD. 'Remote safety drivers' are possible technologically and could help a 'stuck' FSD car. The final fallback would be for a Tesla Network technician to get fetch the car in person.

All of these factors accumulate into significant differences both in terms of how many 9's it has to be able to achieve, in terms of regulatory approval, and in terms of liabilities and insurance costs/risks.

 

[mikevbf]

Couple hundred thousand reservations? Maybe if the car was priced at $15-20k USD. From what I have read the China made version will be roughly 15% cheaper than the current imported SR+? If that is correct I definitely would not be getting hopes up for "hundreds of thousands"

I initially thought the Chinese price/open orders announcement was to get 100's of thousands of orders. But because the price is very close to the US made M3's after you take tax into account and a longer wait was revealed than anticipated, I now think the announcement was a clear message to those waiting for the GF3 M3's to not wait and order the US ones now instead.

 

[LN1_Casey]

All of these factors accumulate into significant differences both in terms of how many 9's it has to be able to achieve, in terms of regulatory approval, and in terms of liabilities and insurance costs/risks.

While I agree with your descriptor of how the Tesla would act sans people, if the Tesla only had the driver, who was unconscious, why would it drive any differently? Drunk/asleep person wouldn't know they were taking the safer, but slightly longer route home. They'd not notice they were driving the speed limit rather than the California mandatory +10MPH. They're passed out.

 

[Fact Checking]

While I agree with your descriptor of how the Tesla would act sans people, if the Tesla only had the driver, who was unconscious, why would it drive any differently? Drunk/asleep person wouldn't know they were taking the safer, but slightly longer route home. They'd not notice they were driving the speed limit rather than the California mandatory +10MPH. They're passed out.

Yes, but the argument I'm trying to make is that during the initial introduction of Tesla Network could be done with a designated driver with a driving license always being in charge of the car.

I.e. the car would only drive level 5 FSD with no passengers on board.

By limiting FSD to when there are no passengers on board the "taxi driver" can already be eliminated, and a significant portion of the revenue stream of trillions of dollars of taxi service market can be unlocked.

I.e. FSD doesn't have to be "driver can sleep in the car safe" in the first step - which was the original FSD milestone I was responding to.

 

[lascavarian]

Nibbling at these prices and unfortunately averaging down a bit too.